Let's Throw out the RPI Rankings for Men's College Basketball

OK, here’s my 2013 bash of the RPI rankings.

Belmont #24/Oregon #25

Belmont (#24)

15-4 (6-0), 1st Ohio Valley – East

                Fri, Nov 9             at Lipscomb                        W 89-60                --             --             --

               Tue, Nov 13        Maryville (Mo.)                 W 88-49                --             --             --

               Sun, Nov 18        at Stanford                         W 70-62                --             --             --

               Wed, Nov 21      at Alaska                              W 74-60                --             --             --

               Fri, Nov 23           Northeastern                    L 71-74                 --             --             --

               Sat, Nov 24         at Oral Roberts                 W 70-67                --             --             --

               Sat, Dec 1            at VCU                                 L 65-75                 --             --             --

               Tue, Dec 4           Lipscomb                             W 100-66             --             --             --

               Thu, Dec 13         Middle Tenn. St.               W 64-49                --             --             --

               Sat, Dec 15          at (9) Kansas                      L 60-89                 --             --             --

               Wed, Dec 19       South Dakota St.              W 76-49                --             --             --

               Fri, Dec 28           at Boston U.                       W 64-48                --             --             --

               Sat, Dec 29          at UCF                                   L 63-66                 --             --             --

               Thu, Jan 3            at Jacksonville St.             W 73-62                --             --             --

               Sat, Jan 5             at Tennessee Tech          W 83-52                --             --             --

               Thu, Jan 10          SE Missouri St.                   W 107-72             --             --             --

               Sat, Jan 12           Tenn-Martin                      W 90-53                --             --             --

               Thu, Jan 17          Eastern Kentucky             W 83-76                --             --             --

               Sat, Jan 19           Tennessee St.                   W 78-66                --             --             --

That’s one game against an AP Top 25 team (lost to Kansas by 29) The only impressive win was at Stanford (11-7, 2-3 in Pac-12). Other Losses against Northeastern, VCU and UCF.

Oregon (#25)

16-2 (5-0), 1st Pac-12

Sat, Nov 10         Northern Arizona             W 83-73                --             --             --

               Mon, Nov 12      Portland St.                        W 80-69                --             --             --

               Fri, Nov 16           Vanderbilt                           W 74-48                --             --             --

               Mon, Nov 19      Jacksonville St.                 W 67-45                --             --             --

               Fri, Nov 23           at (18) UNLV                      W 83-79                --             --             --

               Sat, Nov 24         (22) Cincinnati                   L 66-77                 --             --             --

               Thu, Nov 29        UTSA                                     W 95-78                --             --             --

               Sat, Dec 1            AR Pine Bluff                      W 80-59                --             --             --

               Sat, Dec 8            Idaho St.                              W 87-35                --             --             --

               Sat, Dec 15          Nebraska                             W 60-38                --             --             --

               Wed, Dec 19       at UTEP                                L 84-91                 --             --             --

               Sat, Dec 22          Houston Baptist                W 91-50                --             --             --

               Mon, Dec 31       Nevada                                W 56-43                --             --             --

               Sun, Jan 6            at Oregon St.                     W 79-66                --             --             --

               Thu, Jan 10          (4) Arizona                          W 70-66                --             --             --

               Sun, Jan 13          Arizona St.                          W 68-65                --             --             --

               Thu, Jan 17          at USC                                   W 76-74                --             --             --

               Sat, Jan 19           at (24) UCLA                       W 76-67                --             --             --

That’s 3 wins and one loss against AP Top 25 teams at the time the game was played. Cincinnati and UNLV have since dropped out of the AP poll (both are in the Top 30). UCLA will also drop out after the Oregon loss last weekend. One “bad” loss for Oregon in OT at UTEP (10-7, 3-1 in Conference USA), so not that bad.

Both teams beat Jacksonville St. – Oregon by 22 at home, Belmont by 11 on the road.

To me there’s no comparison between these two teams – with Oregon having the seemingly tougher schedule and better quality wins, and yet Belmont is ranked HIGHER than Oregon in the RPI, updated yesterday, Jan. 20. In fact, that RPI shows Belmont having a much higher Strength of Schedule than Oregon:

Rank      Team     Record Pts          SoS Rank             v RPI 1-50            v RPI 51-100        v RPI 101-150     v RPI 151-200     v RPI 200+

24.              Belmont           15 - 4     0.6264   38           1 - 2        4 - 0        1 - 2        2 - 0        5 - 0

25.              Oregon             16 - 2     0.6246   81           3 - 1        2 - 1        2 - 0        3 - 0        6 – 0

So, both teams are 5-2 against the RPI Top 100, but Oregon has beaten the higher ranked teams. Oregon has no other losses, while Belmont has 2 losses against RPI 101-150.

It seems like the RPI ranking is based on their Strength of Schedule calculation with little or no regard for actual performance. 

To understand the RPI Rankings and how they work, this breakdown is necessary:

Parameter	% of Rating
Team Winning %	25 %
Opponent's Winning %	50 %
Opponent's Opponent's Winning %	25 %

That means that only 25% of a team's RPI score is determined by how that team actually performed. There's also no difference for winning by 1, or winning by 30.

Too bad this is used in factoring who gets into the big dance at the end of the season. Since this is the case, shouldn’t the RPI count the wins against Other NCAA tournament quality teams (i.e. RPI Top 50) as more meaningful than the rest of the schedule? 

 

Who Should the Portland Trail Blazers take in the 2013 NBA Draft?

So, the Blazers have the #6 and #11 overall picks in the NBA draft right now. They also have the #40 & #41 (2nd round picks). That makes four picks in the top 41.

If the goal is to win a championship, then realistically, the Blazers are a few years away from building that kind of team. Every NBA champion for the last 30+ years has had a bonafide superstar, with the exception of Detroit in '03-'04 (Billups/R. Wallace/B. Wallace). The league still very much rewards the scorer (Kobe, LeBron, Wade, etc..) who can take his man 1-on-1 - much more so than the defensive star.

The current roster boasts Aldridge as an All-Star PF, Batum as a good scorer/defender at the SG/SF position, Matthews as a good 3-point shooter at SG, and not much in the way of talent after that. Hickson looks like a decent scoring option off the bench, but probably not starter material on a winning team.

To build this team into a champion, they can build around Aldridge (not yet a superstar on the level of past NBA champions) or try to make a play on a potential superstar in the draft, or via free agency. The trouble with free agency is that if the team's not ready to win now, there's no reason to spend $$$ on your superstar yet.

This means that the Blazers will have to be very careful with their moves. I've watched the Oakland A's (baseball) squander countless opportunities to improve the team for the future by signing players at high salaries (Holliday, Crisp, Fuentes) when the team wasn't ready to win yet. They can't seem to decide whether they're rebuilding or trying to eke out 80 wins. In my opinion, you have to have a plan that specifies a point in the future when you plan to win, and not deviate from that plan just because you think so-and-so will help your team in the present.

All that said, if the Blazers can't put a package of picks and players together for Anthony Davis (this would be difficult without including Aldridge), they need to make decisions which make the team ready to win 2-3 years down the road. The lottery makes it difficult to predict where you'll draft even if you have the worst record in the league, so trying to bank on that #1 pick in any year is unrealistic.

Since the Blazers have no GM right now (and no head coach), I'll draft the guys who have the most upside. They may not look great this year, but give 'em playing time and in a couple of years it could work out. That said, I like UConn center Andre Drummond at the 6 spot (18 years old, plenty of raw talent, needs time to develop). He may go one or two spots higher, so Portland should be ready to deal up to get him. At #11, I like Duke frosh SG Austin Rivers for his scoring ability (another young player who needs time to develop).

The current starters would be

C Drummond

PF Aldridge

SF Batum

SG Rivers/Matthews - Matthews regressed last year and makes too much $$$ for his talent level. I'd like to see him traded or replaced as a starter by 2013 for sure. He would be a decent option off the bench.

PG Low-Cost Free Agent for now...upgrade this substantially in 2013 draft or free agency when ready to win.

Bench is Hickson, Kurt Thomas, etc...Need to build the bench up again within the next couple of years.

J. Crawford needs to go, looks like he has a player option for this season. Try to trade him if you can.

Again, this group doesn't look that great now, but in 2-3 years with the right moves, it could...

Fantasy College Basketball

With the NBA lockout about to extend into training camp, it's looking more and more like the season will be in jeopardy. However, fantasy basketball fans need not fret, because college hoops will start right on schedule. What, you've never participated in a Fantasy College Basketball League? It can be great fun, and a good way to learn about some of the lesser-known talent around the nation.

Most Fantasy College Basketball Leagues use only the top talent from the most prestigious conferences, and that's fine. However, it's probably more fun to draft players from the schools other than Duke, North Carolina and Kentucky.

One really radical idea is to start a Fantasy College Basketball Keeper League. Since players generally stick around for at least three years, this makes sense in the college hoops arena.

The main thing is to be creative, and set up a league that's simple enough to keep your owners interested, but also one that will stay compelling throughout the year.

Oh, and if you don't know who Adjehi Baru is, you better start looking him up now.

Top NBA Producers

Here are the top NBA producers so far this year in terms of TOTAL POINTS (PTS + REB + AST + STL + BLK)


james,lebron 47.1
bryant,kobe 45.1
garnett,kevin 44.3
boozer,carlos 42.8
howard,dwight 41.1
ming,yao 40.6
davis,baron 40.5
iverson,allen 39.3
mcgrady,tracy 38.3
anthony,carmelo 37.7
paul,chris 36.8
kaman,chris 36.3
randolph,zach 36.2
jefferson,richard 35.9
nowitzki,dirk 35.7
pierce,paul 35.4
jefferson,al 34.7
marion,shawn 34.5
redd,michael 34.4
nash,steve 34.1
martin,kevin 33.9
johnson,joe 33.7
arenas,gilbert 33.6
butler,caron 33.6
smith,josh 33.6

Winning Your NBA Fantasy League

A few years ago, I participated in an NBA Fantasy League. It was the 2001-02 season. The league used 12-man rosters with 10 owners, and five stat categories. There were two games each week, and we set our starting lineups for each game. I won that league, and thought I'd share my strategy with you. Even though most leagues have already had their drafts and started play, there's still plenty of time to make trades and free agent acquisitions.

Entering the draft, I had the third overall pick. Our stat categories were PTS, REB, AST, BLK, and STL. Each player's output in all five categories was added together to get the team total. I prepared my draft sheet and tried to identify players that might be undervalued by the other owners.

In addition to the stat projections, there were two other factors that I used to target players. One was durability. I wanted to make sure that the guys that I drafted had a good chance of missing only a few games. So, I didn't go after guys like Grant Hill. I also wanted players that still had their best years in front of them.

I knew that Shaq would be the first pick. I believe Tim Duncan went second. I decided to buck the trend of taking big men in the first round. With my pick, I took a very young, but talented Tracy McGrady. His prior year stats weren't as high as a few other guys near the top, but because of his youth, he projected to keep improving.

Here was my draft (what I can remember of it):

Round 1 - Tracy McGrady, G
He was the foundation for my team, a Do-It-All contributor who provided good points in all five categories. 76 games played.

Round 2 - Shawn Marion, F
Another young guy who slipped under everyone else's radar. He gave me monster numbers across the board, and played in 81 games.

Round 3 - Ben Wallace, C
A MAJOR coup for me in the draft. Big Ben qualified at center, and slipped to the third round because he didn't put up good scoring numbers. However, I saw the potential for improvement. He put up huge rebound numbers, finishing just behind Duncan in that category. Plus, his durability allowed me to start him every night. 80 games played.

Round 4 - Antawn Jamison, F
This may have been a suspect pick, but it worked out well in the end. Jamison did not have a great first half, and started receiving less playing time as the year went on. However, he picked it up in the second half, and became a force. Many think of Jamison as a scorer only, but he also rebounds well and gets a few blocks. 82 games played.

Round 5 - Darrell Armstrong, G
Another guy who flew under the radar was Armstrong, who finished with good points and assists totals, and also finished in the top five in steals. He also played in all 82 games. His career went downhill pretty quickly after the 01-02 season. Note that my starting five missed a grand total of only nine games.

Round 6 - Antonio Davis, F/C
A vastly undervalued guy who started for Toronto, and gave me quality production at the center position. I used him as a backup at times to Wallace.

Round 7 - Elden Campbell, C
I stocked up on quality big men that fell to the later rounds. The teams that had drafted centers early only felt the need to add one near the end of the draft. That was their mistake. I had three starting centers on my roster who produced. That limited the number of quality centers who were available after this point. Rule #1 of drafting: stock up at positions where quality is scarce. You can use those chips as trade bait later on.

Round 8 - Jalen Rose, G/F
Rose was a consistent contributor in points, rebounds, assists and steals, and even averaged a half a blocked shot per game. The next season was his best.

Round 9 - Anthony Peeler, G
Needing some insurance at the guard position, I grabbed Peeler. He was a decent scorer, but lacked points in the other categories to make him a higher pick. 82 games played.

Round 10 - Aaron Williams, F
This pick didn't really work out as well as I hoped it would. Although Williams didn't miss a game, his per-minute numbers didn't really improve, and he didn't play as much as I thought he might.

Round 11 - Jahidi White, C
More center stock-piling. White ended up with one of the highest rebound/minute averages in the league, although he only averaged about 19 minutes/night.

Round 12 - Tony Parker, G
Mr. Parker didn't really blossom until a few yaers later, but I liked the fact that he was young and played good minutes.

I don't think we scared anybody on paper, because we lacked a lot of big-name players. We were around .500 during the first half of the season, and didn't really gel until the playoffs neared. We cruise through the first round, and then had to face Shaq's team in the best 2-of-3 final round. We lost the first game, but then Shaq got hurt, and we won the next two games for the championship title.

What I learned from that season is that in Fantasy Hoops, the starting five is key. If you draft a solid top six or seven players who don't get hurt, you don't really need much depth. When other teams are trying to replace injured stars, you are still playing your top guys, and that makes all the difference. Also, addressing the issue of position scarcity is important in any draft.

Blazers' Oden To Miss Season

In case you are body-surfing glaciers in Iceland, and hadn't heard...

Greg Oden had knee surgery, and will most likely miss the entire 2007-08 season.

For those of us who wanted the Blazers to take Kevin Durant, it is a very sorry "I told you so".

See my original post on why the Blazers should have taken Durant HERE

Ridnour to Atlanta?

From the AP-

Seattle leaves Ridnour offer on table
Thursday, Jun 28, 2007 1:51 pm EDT

The Seattle SuperSonics are sitting pretty with the No. 2 overall pick in the NBA draft, but the team still has an offer on the table to improve its draft position.
The primary deal that remains on the table is trading point guard Luke Ridnour to the Atlanta Hawks for the No. 11 pick, which could be used on Eastern Washington standout Rodney Stuckey. According to sources, the deal remains alive while the Hawks figure out a way to make a bigger deal using the No. 3 and No. 11 picks.
Source: Seattle Post Intelligencer

...why would Atlanta do this? Seattle is probably the only team that Ridnour would have been starting for last year. He had to be one of the lowest-producing point guards out there, among players who regularly started games. The Hawks could do much better by using that pick on someone else.

Blazers PLeeease Draft Kevin Durant

http://draftkevindurant.blogspot.com

'nuff said...

The #1 Pick - Oden or Durant?

When the Blazers won the rights to the first pick in the 2007 NBA Draft, they found themselves with a problem that any team would love to have. Who should Portland take with the top pick?

The two standout choices were both college freshmen last season: Ohio State's Greg Oden & Texas standout Kevin Durant. While the Blazers seem to be leaning towards Oden, a 7-foot man-child, a strong case can also be made for choosing Durant, who has smoothness and skills oozing out of him, a la Tracy McGrady.

In a current NBA fan poll, the question is asked: "Who will have the better NBA career?"
Oden leads Durant by a slim 53% to 47% margin.

Looking at the Blazers, there are two pressing needs. One is for a dominant big man (Oden). The other is for a sharp-shooting two-guard or small forward (Durant). Let's look at the two players and how they might fit into the Blazers' plans...

Greg Oden is the best big man to come out of college since Tim Duncan. You can't teach size, and Oden will immediately improve the Blazers defensively, and has good offensive skills as well. Despite missing some games last year with a hand injury, he averaged double-doubles shooting only with his off-hand! Oden has a fantastic work ethic, too. In the NCAA championship game against the Gators (best front line in college hoops) , he scored 25 points and ripped down 12 rebounds.
Dominant centers have been the cornerstones of championship teams in recent years. Look at the number of rings that Duncan, Shaq and Hakeem Olajuwon have won. We might not see another center of Greg Oden's caliber for another ten to twenty years.

Kevin Durant is a 6-foot-nine wunderkid who can do pretty much everything on the basketball floor. He's a dangerous outside shooter, but has the drive-and-slash game to match. There is probably no one in the NBA who could effectively match up defensively against Durant. He also may not be done growing, which is a scary thought. Durant will probably never be the defensive stopper that Oden will, but he promises to be much more dangerous on the offensive end.

In 1984, Portland drafted 7-footer Sam Bowie with the #2 pick (Olajuwon went #1). The next pick was some guy named Jordan who went to Chicago. Years after Bowie had left Portland as a bust, Michael and the Bulls were trouncing the Blazers in the NBA championship on their way to six titles. Yes, Olajuwon worked out well for Houston, but the point is that Bowie did not. You never know when big-men's knees are going to fail to stand up to the rigors of the NBA game. Oden will be a great shot-blocker, but the Blazers already have a nice, young center in LaMarcus Aldridge. Durant supplies what the Blazers have been missing ever since Clyde Drexler retired - a perimeter shooter who can always get his shot off, or drive by you in a nanosecond.

As a Blazer fan, I'm hoping they go against all reason, and choose Kevin Durant with the top pick in this year's draft.

Your thoughts?

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