When the Blazers won the rights to the first pick in the 2007 NBA Draft, they found themselves with a problem that any team would love to have. Who should Portland take with the top pick?
The two standout choices were both college freshmen last season: Ohio State's Greg Oden & Texas standout Kevin Durant. While the Blazers seem to be leaning towards Oden, a 7-foot man-child, a strong case can also be made for choosing Durant, who has smoothness and skills oozing out of him, a la Tracy McGrady.
In a current NBA fan poll, the question is asked: "Who will have the better NBA career?"
Oden leads Durant by a slim 53% to 47% margin.
Looking at the Blazers, there are two pressing needs. One is for a dominant big man (Oden). The other is for a sharp-shooting two-guard or small forward (Durant). Let's look at the two players and how they might fit into the Blazers' plans...
Greg Oden is the best big man to come out of college since Tim Duncan. You can't teach size, and Oden will immediately improve the Blazers defensively, and has good offensive skills as well. Despite missing some games last year with a hand injury, he averaged double-doubles shooting only with his off-hand! Oden has a fantastic work ethic, too. In the NCAA championship game against the Gators (best front line in college hoops) , he scored 25 points and ripped down 12 rebounds.
Dominant centers have been the cornerstones of championship teams in recent years. Look at the number of rings that Duncan, Shaq and Hakeem Olajuwon have won. We might not see another center of Greg Oden's caliber for another ten to twenty years.
Kevin Durant is a 6-foot-nine wunderkid who can do pretty much everything on the basketball floor. He's a dangerous outside shooter, but has the drive-and-slash game to match. There is probably no one in the NBA who could effectively match up defensively against Durant. He also may not be done growing, which is a scary thought. Durant will probably never be the defensive stopper that Oden will, but he promises to be much more dangerous on the offensive end.
In 1984, Portland drafted 7-footer Sam Bowie with the #2 pick (Olajuwon went #1). The next pick was some guy named Jordan who went to Chicago. Years after Bowie had left Portland as a bust, Michael and the Bulls were trouncing the Blazers in the NBA championship on their way to six titles. Yes, Olajuwon worked out well for Houston, but the point is that Bowie did not. You never know when big-men's knees are going to fail to stand up to the rigors of the NBA game. Oden will be a great shot-blocker, but the Blazers already have a nice, young center in LaMarcus Aldridge. Durant supplies what the Blazers have been missing ever since Clyde Drexler retired - a perimeter shooter who can always get his shot off, or drive by you in a nanosecond.
As a Blazer fan, I'm hoping they go against all reason, and choose Kevin Durant with the top pick in this year's draft.
Your thoughts?
4 comments:
I agree with most people in the media who are predicting the Blazers will draft Oden (because defense wins games), but don't be too surprised if they choose Durant because he is such an amazing athlete. As a Blazers fan I think either player will work well, and I hope they go with coach McMillan's best choice because I think he is the person in the organization who really knows the kind of athlete who he wants to have on the team. Their decision might have more to do with attitude, motivation and teachability than physical talents, which are attributes fans can't always judge by watching games on TV. In my mind, a frontcourt of Oden-Aldredge-Randolph sounds like an awesome combination, but then so does the idea of Aldredge-Durant-Randolph! What's more, the acquisition might give the organization enough slack that they could afford to trade away troublesome Randolph or even other players in the future. It's a huge windfall for a team that was in miserable shape only two seasons ago.
That being said, I think fans often place too much importance on the ranking of high draft picks. Many NBA lottery picks become superstars but there are many who don't, and many of the best players in the pros were drafted as lower picks. It remains to be seen how young athletes will develop at the next level. This is why the Celtics should not be so despondent, because for all we know they might be getting a future player-of-the-year with their #5 pick. But obviously this is a great thing for Portland.
-Don
A lot of it depends on what the Blazers can get in return for Randolph so it's difficult to say.
Keep in mind the following on Oden:
1) He wasn't playing at 100% most of last year.
2) The last team to win an NBA title without a dominant big man was probably Jordan's Bulls. You could argue that Ben Wallace wasn't dominant, but he was a game-changing presence in the middle.
3) It's much easier to predict what Oden will do at the next level than Durant. We know Oden will block shots and get rebounds.
4) It rarely works out when you try and build your franchise around a swingman. LeBron and Michael are exceptions to the rule. Durant would need to be on that level for that pick to make sense.
5) Greg Oden is no Sam Bowie. In the Blazers' defense, no one could have predicted Jordan's impact on the game.
I think the quicker road to NBA legitimacy rests with drafting Oden, although you can't go wrong either way.
Hey man, where you been?
Not much of a basketball fan but I have a baseball question for you, so I'm hijacking this thread!
First off, gutsy call with Tomo Ohka as a free agent pickup. It didn't work out but still, you went out on a limb, you had a logical argument, it was a guy who was going to be available. It didn't work out but hey. I would rather read a pick like that than read the 1,000 posts about how I should run out there and claim James Shields or Chad Gaudin or Fausto Carmona... those ships have sailed! (But you had them all before they left the dock, nice job)
So anyway, I have the great fortune of having picked up Gaudin and Andrew Miller, but unfortunately, we play old-school Rotisserie League rules where you have to drop the player you claimed in order to activate him. In other words, I had Miller, I reserved Miller and claimed Gaudin. Now Miller is back; I would have to release Gaudin to activate Miller.
I could then immediately put in a waiver claim for Gaudin but everyone else would get a shot at him too.
Which one would you keep? It's a keeper league, auction draft... either guy would cost $6 to keep next year.
oops, just one other point, my plan is either to activate Miller, drop Gaudin and then claim Gaudin, or drop Miller and then claim Miller. But as I said, my chances of getting either guy back aren't great. I'm middle of the pack right now and hoping to move up, but as I said, it's a keeper league, so next year is always on my mind.
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