Ridnour to Atlanta?

From the AP-

Seattle leaves Ridnour offer on table
Thursday, Jun 28, 2007 1:51 pm EDT

The Seattle SuperSonics are sitting pretty with the No. 2 overall pick in the NBA draft, but the team still has an offer on the table to improve its draft position.
The primary deal that remains on the table is trading point guard Luke Ridnour to the Atlanta Hawks for the No. 11 pick, which could be used on Eastern Washington standout Rodney Stuckey. According to sources, the deal remains alive while the Hawks figure out a way to make a bigger deal using the No. 3 and No. 11 picks.
Source: Seattle Post Intelligencer

...why would Atlanta do this? Seattle is probably the only team that Ridnour would have been starting for last year. He had to be one of the lowest-producing point guards out there, among players who regularly started games. The Hawks could do much better by using that pick on someone else.

Blazers PLeeease Draft Kevin Durant

http://draftkevindurant.blogspot.com

'nuff said...

The Best Baseball Websites

My favorite baseball websites are as follows (no particular order):

www.BaseballAmerica.com
Not taking the major leagues into account, baseball is played all over the United States. You can find minor league teams in towns and cities all across the country. Baseball America is a great source for finding out about your favorite major league team's farm system. They provide comprehensive lists of players, sortable stats and commentary for all minor league teams. They also do a fine job covering college baseball, which is growing rapidly in popularity.

www.RotoWorld.com
Primarily a fantasy sports site, RotoWorld is not just for fantasy geeks. RotoWorld reports sports news in a very timely manner. Because of their superior coverage, they usually get their news items up faster than bigger sites like Yahoo or MSN. Plus, they report or comment on a much greater amount of players on a daily basis. You can look up a great number of professional sports players in their vast databse, which gives you vitals as well as career statistics. You can also find quality articles in abundance there.

www.TheBaseballCube.com
The Baseball Cube is a historical almanac providing major league, minor league and college statistics. The major league records go back over 100 years. I have often visited this site when I am trying to find information on minor league players, as they tend to have more info on the minors than any other site I've visited. You can also 'sponsor' your favorite player's webpage on their site.

www.Sabr.org
The Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) was established in 1971. Their desire is to promote the study of baseball, both current and historical. Of primary interest on the site are their studies on everything from The Deadball Era (1901-1919) to Women in Baseball. It's a fine source for anyone wanting to examine the history of baseball, and how the game has changed through the years.

www.Baseball1.com
This site is a nice archive of various topics, ranging from Sabermetrics to the Negro leagues. It also has a fine database of downloadable stats from baseball's early era.

www.Baseball-Reference.com
In my opinion, this is the premier website for baseball stat junkies. Here, you will find current standings and boxscores, and past stats going back to 1871.You'll also discover a comprehesive list of past players, managers, post-season results and awards.

www.BaseballThinkFactory.org
A general discussion site, with articles on all kinds of topics, including the minor league draft and current baseball events. At any given time, you might find up to 1000 people viewing the site.

The Wisdom of Bill James

Bill James is currently on the staff of the Boston Red Sox as a statistical guru. Before he was hired in 2002, he was well known for his Baseabll Abstract publications. These books used scientific methods to judge whether conventinal baseball wisdom held up when compared with cold, hard data. Mr. James has long had a profound impact on the game, influencing many GMs, including Oakland's Billy Beane.
I stumbled across some of James' ideas from his Baseball Abstract of twenty years ago. I thought I'd post them here so you can judge for yourself. Ask whether your favorite team seems to follow any of the strategies suggested by these ideas. Also, if you're a fantasy baseball owner, how can this information strengthen your team?

"What I wanted to write about... is a very basic question. Of all the studies I have done over the last 12 years, what have I learned? What is the relevance of sabermetric knowledge to the decision making process of a team? If I were employed by a major-league team, what are the basic things that I know from the research I have done which would be of use to me in helping that team?"

Minor league batting statistics will predict major league batting performance with essentially the same reliability as previous major league statistics.
(If this is true, and I believe it is --- then it pays to value minor league hitters more than minor league pitchers, since the results for hitters can be predicted with more success.)

Talent in baseball is not normally distributed. It is a pyramid. For every player who is 10 percent above the average player, there are probably twenty players who are 10 pecent below average.
(I also like to extend the letter designations of the minor leagues into the majors. For instance, I divide the majors into three different levels, based on talent and potential: 4A being the lowest, 5A the average talent level, and 6A being the all-star level.)

What a player hits in one ballpark may be radically different from what he would hit in another.
(I've often thought about this. Some ballparks not only have different dimensions, but different settings and backgrounds, too. These can have an impact on player performance. Ever see visiting players in Fenway Park trying to pull the ball, so they can hit the Green Monster?)

Ballplayers, as a group, reach their peak value much earlier and decline much more rapidly than people believe.


Players taken in the June draft coming out of college (or with at least two years of college) perform dramatically better than players drafted out of high school.
(This was a big part of the philosophy of the Oakland A's, which was documented in the best-selling book Moneyball.)

The chance of getting a good player with a high draft pick is substantial enough that it is clearly a disastrous strategy to give up a first round draft choice to sign a mediocre free agent. (see notes)
(If you look back at the Top Ten draft picks for the last 10 years or so, you will see a high percentage of players that went on to have good careers. I believe that this occurs in baseball more frequently than football or basketball, for instance.)

A power pitcher has a dramatically higher expectation for future wins than does a finesse picther of the same age and ability.
(I might take issue with this and say that other factors, such as control and movement also have a great effect on a pitcher's long-term success.)

Single season won-lost records have almost no value as an indicator of a pitcher's contribution to a team.

The largest variable determining how many runs a team will score is how many times they get their leadoff man on base.
(Note - James is referring to the leadoff man for each inning.)

A great deal of what is perceived as being pitching is in fact defense.
(Another Moneyball principle. It's a very interesting topic, and I believe, a primary reason why the Oakland A's have been able to put winning teams on the field almost every season.)

True shortage of talent almost never occurs at the left end of the defensive spectrum. (see notes)
(This seems failry obvious to me...most fielders can play a good first base if given the chance.)

Rightward shifts along the defensive spectrum almost never work. (see notes)

Our idea of what makes a team good on artificial turf is not supported by any research.
(I wonder if James has done more research on this topic.)

When a team improves sharply one season they will almost always decline in the next.
(The Detroit Tigers come to mind this year)

The platoon differential is real and virtually universal.

Notes:
Major league teams still must surrender choices in the amateur draft in exchange for signing free agents.

The defensive spectrum looks like this:
[ - - 1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF - 2B - SS - C - - ]
with the basic premise being that positions at the right end of
the spectrum are more difficult than the positions at the left
end of the spectrum. Players can generally move from right
to left along the specturm successfully during their careers.

Mid-Season Trade Targets

It's about time to evaluate our fantasy rosters, and see what kind of talent might be cheaply available out on the trade market.

Ervin Santana, P, Angels
After a bad start to the season, Santana has been pretty consistent in the last month or so. His ERA has dropped almost a full point since May 24th to 5.06, which still isn't great, but it means he is pitching better. His strikeout rate is a respectable 6.92 per 9 innings, and his walk rate won't get your WHIP in trouble. Santana's undoing this year has been the long ball. He's given up 17 dingers in 90 innings. That won't win him many games.
Because his stats still aren't great, he can be had for cheap. He has gone at least 6 innings in 9 of his last 10 starts, and has given up 3 runs or less in 7 of 10 starts. The Angels have also won 5 of his last 7 outings. Expect an ERA around 4.00 the rest of the way.

- Edit: Santana had another rocky start last night. After crusing through the first three innings, he gave up six runs in the next 2-plus. He can be dominant at times, but also falls into short periods of ineptitude (especially at the start of games), which have a bad impact on his stats.

Andruw Jones, CF, Braves
You may never have a better chance to pick up a perennial All-Star for less than market value. Jones has had a horrible season thus far. He has reverted to his past habit of swinging at pitches well outside the zone, making him an easy strikeout target for even mediocre pitchers. Jones has K'ed in about 28% of his at bats this year, while walking about half as often. His overall production is not great, but with 11 homers and 42 RBI, he's still worth having on your fantasy roster. Remember this guy is only 30 years old, and hit 51 and 41 homers the last two years. See if you can target an owner whose team is performing poorly in the AVG category, who might want to get rid of Andruw for a couple of lesser players. Beware the possibility of a trade by the Braves, though.

Coco Crisp, CF, Red Sox
An altered batting stance has evidently been the reason for Coco's late resurgence. Crisp has seen his batting average climb 26 points in the last 11 days, while his OPS has jumped 81 points in the same span. If Crisp is healthy, he is capable of putting up batting numbers similar to his 2005 season with the Tribe (16 HR, .300 AVG, .810 OPS). Don't forget, he always achieves double-digit steals, too. It may be too late to snag him from an owner for next-to-nothing, but he can probably still be acquired for a player like Luis Castillo, who won't give you nearly as much production other than batting average and runs.

Tips For Actually Winning Your Roto League

As an active participant in roto-style baseball for many years, I've been able to watch owners who consistently finish near the top of their leagues. I thought I'd share some strategies that might help your team get to the promised land...

1) The most important part of any season is the draft. My appraoch to the draft is to be as prepared as possible. I calculate dollar values for every player that I think is worth selecting for a buck. I use my own system for doing this, but there are roto sites that have dollar value systems that will work just fine. You probably don't want to get your values from the same magazine or website that everyone else is using. Don't be afraid to tweak the numbers to get the players you really want.

The biggest challenges in any draft are being able to read how the draft is progressing, and knowing which players you can get for cheap later on. In my roto league this year, everybody paid top dollar for their players on the first day. By the second day, we all knew that any remaining players on the board were going to go extremely cheap because most of the money was already spent. One owner held back a little bit on the first day, and his team is currently in first place because he was able to outbid everyone else on any player he wanted.

At the draft, it helps to have a chart of position eligibilty for all players, so you can easily see when a certain position is going to become scarce. Having been in a similar AL-league for the past few years, I knew that in our league, closers would be extremely valuable, and starting pitching would be the easiest position to fill. So, I spent most of my money on offense and saves. I am doing well in those categories, and have bolstered my starting rotation through Free Agency and trades (I currently have the 2nd and 3rd place teams out of 12).

2) Evaluating talent is key to making a run at the top. I have learned that it's best to avoid players who don't have a lot of potential, even if they are playing everyday. Luis Rodriguez, Shane Costa and Matt Kata come to mind as guys I never want to have on my roster. I tend to gamble on guys who might not be starting, but have a good chance to put up excellent numbers when they play. some of my potential-based Free Agent pickups this year have been Luis Terrero, Dustin Moseley, Casey Janssen, Jeremy Guthrie, Shaun Marcum and Brendan Harris. Not all of them are big contributors yet, but they all show signs of brilliance. Choose strikeouts over WHIP, and Home Runs/Speed over Batting Average.

Also, identify the teams that play in pitchers and hitters parks. If an Oakland pitcher such as Lenny Dinardo is available as a Free Agent, see if he's worth a slot on your roster. Avoid Texas Ranger starting pitchers, as they unsuccessfully try to get outs in a hitter's park.

Pay attention to what roto websites say about players that you know little about. I picked up Janssen and Guthrie because RotoWorld said that they were good. I didn't know much about either, but the results have been excellent.

3) Keep your roster current. Some owners just don't monitor their rosters very closely. They keep guys active who have been on the DL for two weeks. It's hard to win if you do that. I tend to leave pitchers called up from the minors inactive for a week to see how they adjust to the majors.

4) When it comes to trading, identify who is expendable on your roster. If you can fill a need for a starting pitcher by trading Alex Rios, and you can pick up Trot Nixon as a Free Agent, you might want to explore making that deal. Avoid making offers that don't benefit both teams. The quickest way to kill future trades is to make one-sided offers in the present.

Don't try to win your league with one trade. Make several or many deals that swing the pendulum ever-so slightly in your favor.

5) Monitor which categories are close races. Make trades to gain in those categories. If the difference between 4th and 10th place in stolen bases is only five steals, pick up a speedster to make sure you finish on top of that group. Likwise if you know you're out of the competition for saves, don't make a trade for a closer and still finish last in that category.

6) Don't expect to win your league if you are the commish. Running a league takes time, and it takes time away from being able to follow your teams and the Free Agent wire closely. I'm learning about this for the first time this year.

Gaudin or Miller

I got a great baseball question from Butch, which I thought I'd post for everyone to see...

Butch said...
Hey man, where you been?Not much of a basketball fan but I have a baseball question for you, so I'm hijacking this thread!First off, gutsy call with Tomo Ohka as a free agent pickup. It didn't work out but still, you went out on a limb, you had a logical argument, it was a guy who was going to be available. It didn't work out but hey. I would rather read a pick like that than read the 1,000 posts about how I should run out there and claim James Shields or Chad Gaudin or Fausto Carmona... those ships have sailed! (But you had them all before they left the dock, nice job)So anyway, I have the great fortune of having picked up Gaudin and Andrew Miller, but unfortunately, we play old-school Rotisserie League rules where you have to drop the player you claimed in order to activate him. In other words, I had Miller, I reserved Miller and claimed Gaudin. Now Miller is back; I would have to release Gaudin to activate Miller.I could then immediately put in a waiver claim for Gaudin but everyone else would get a shot at him too.Which one would you keep? It's a keeper league, auction draft... either guy would cost $6 to keep next year.

Butch said...
oops, just one other point, my plan is either to activate Miller, drop Gaudin and then claim Gaudin, or drop Miller and then claim Miller. But as I said, my chances of getting either guy back aren't great. I'm middle of the pack right now and hoping to move up, but as I said, it's a keeper league, so next year is always on my mind.

Hey Butch...
First off, I'm not done with Ohka yet. I still have him on my fantasy team, and hope he turns it around. History says he will, but he will be on a short leash. I also thought Robinson Tejada would be better than he has been. No Ranger starting pitcher has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in the last 10 years except for Kenny Rogers and Ismael Valdes. All of the Ranger starters are over 6.00 this year.

Gaudin and Shields have been outstanding. The A's pitching staff in particular has been unbelievable, and if Lenny DiNardo is still available in your league, he might be a good short-term guy. The A's typically want to play low-scoring games, which benefits the pitchers' stats. I know that fans on Athletics Nation had been clamoring for Gaudin to replace Kennedy in the rotation since last year, and it looks as though they were right.

Now to your question about Miller and Gaudin. I have been high on Miller for a couple of years, but I drafted Alex Gordon and Dustin Pedroia instead in the first round of my minor league draft (Miller went later in the first round). I think Miller is one of those rare rookies that you can stick right in as a starter in your fantasy league. He will probably be wild at times, so expect some ugly starts this year. It's a very tough choice between he and Gaudin. Can you trade one of them and keep the other?

If I had to choose one, I would choose Miller. Gaudin is great right now, but he has limited experience as a starter, and we still have the hot summer months to play. I like Miller's potential as a long-term guy more than Gaudin's. I definitely think he will get more K's, and Detroit probably gives him a very good chance to get some wins as well.

Good luck, and let us know what you decide to do...