As an active participant in roto-style baseball for many years, I've been able to watch owners who consistently finish near the top of their leagues. I thought I'd share some strategies that might help your team get to the promised land...
1) The most important part of any season is the draft. My appraoch to the draft is to be as prepared as possible. I calculate dollar values for every player that I think is worth selecting for a buck. I use my own system for doing this, but there are roto sites that have dollar value systems that will work just fine. You probably don't want to get your values from the same magazine or website that everyone else is using. Don't be afraid to tweak the numbers to get the players you really want.
The biggest challenges in any draft are being able to read how the draft is progressing, and knowing which players you can get for cheap later on. In my roto league this year, everybody paid top dollar for their players on the first day. By the second day, we all knew that any remaining players on the board were going to go extremely cheap because most of the money was already spent. One owner held back a little bit on the first day, and his team is currently in first place because he was able to outbid everyone else on any player he wanted.
At the draft, it helps to have a chart of position eligibilty for all players, so you can easily see when a certain position is going to become scarce. Having been in a similar AL-league for the past few years, I knew that in our league, closers would be extremely valuable, and starting pitching would be the easiest position to fill. So, I spent most of my money on offense and saves. I am doing well in those categories, and have bolstered my starting rotation through Free Agency and trades (I currently have the 2nd and 3rd place teams out of 12).
2) Evaluating talent is key to making a run at the top. I have learned that it's best to avoid players who don't have a lot of potential, even if they are playing everyday. Luis Rodriguez, Shane Costa and Matt Kata come to mind as guys I never want to have on my roster. I tend to gamble on guys who might not be starting, but have a good chance to put up excellent numbers when they play. some of my potential-based Free Agent pickups this year have been Luis Terrero, Dustin Moseley, Casey Janssen, Jeremy Guthrie, Shaun Marcum and Brendan Harris. Not all of them are big contributors yet, but they all show signs of brilliance. Choose strikeouts over WHIP, and Home Runs/Speed over Batting Average.
Also, identify the teams that play in pitchers and hitters parks. If an Oakland pitcher such as Lenny Dinardo is available as a Free Agent, see if he's worth a slot on your roster. Avoid Texas Ranger starting pitchers, as they unsuccessfully try to get outs in a hitter's park.
Pay attention to what roto websites say about players that you know little about. I picked up Janssen and Guthrie because RotoWorld said that they were good. I didn't know much about either, but the results have been excellent.
3) Keep your roster current. Some owners just don't monitor their rosters very closely. They keep guys active who have been on the DL for two weeks. It's hard to win if you do that. I tend to leave pitchers called up from the minors inactive for a week to see how they adjust to the majors.
4) When it comes to trading, identify who is expendable on your roster. If you can fill a need for a starting pitcher by trading Alex Rios, and you can pick up Trot Nixon as a Free Agent, you might want to explore making that deal. Avoid making offers that don't benefit both teams. The quickest way to kill future trades is to make one-sided offers in the present.
Don't try to win your league with one trade. Make several or many deals that swing the pendulum ever-so slightly in your favor.
5) Monitor which categories are close races. Make trades to gain in those categories. If the difference between 4th and 10th place in stolen bases is only five steals, pick up a speedster to make sure you finish on top of that group. Likwise if you know you're out of the competition for saves, don't make a trade for a closer and still finish last in that category.
6) Don't expect to win your league if you are the commish. Running a league takes time, and it takes time away from being able to follow your teams and the Free Agent wire closely. I'm learning about this for the first time this year.
1 comment:
I'd be interested in your take on this bit of advice I had read somewhere, maybe 10 years ago: Have a goal.
In most roto leagues where top 3 get money, there's three goals:
1) Win it all, screw next year.
2) Finish in the money, but have a decent keeper list.
3) Screw this year, build for the future.
In April and maybe even into May, you can jump from #3 to #1 or vice versa, but by June, definitely July, commit to your goal.
The point is to avoid the dreaded 4th place finish.
I have to admit I rarely stick to this advice but I always think about it whenever I see owners of mid-pack teams trade prospects for veterans, and then a few weeks later make the same trade in reverse when they're still out of the money.
Anyway, what's your take on it?
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