Thursday, May 31, 2012

Who Should the Portland Trail Blazers take in the 2013 NBA Draft?


So, the Blazers have the #6 and #11 overall picks in the NBA draft right now. They also have the #40 & #41 (2nd round picks). That makes four picks in the top 41.

If the goal is to win a championship, then realistically, the Blazers are a few years away from building that kind of team. Every NBA champion for the last 30+ years has had a bonafide superstar, with the exception of Detroit in '03-'04 (Billups/R. Wallace/B. Wallace). The league still very much rewards the scorer (Kobe, LeBron, Wade, etc..) who can take his man 1-on-1 - much more so than the defensive star.

The current roster boasts Aldridge as an All-Star PF, Batum as a good scorer/defender at the SG/SF position, Matthews as a good 3-point shooter at SG, and not much in the way of talent after that. Hickson looks like a decent scoring option off the bench, but probably not starter material on a winning team.
To build this team into a champion, they can build around Aldridge (not yet a superstar on the level of past NBA champions) or try to make a play on a potential superstar in the draft, or via free agency. The trouble with free agency is that if the team's not ready to win now, there's no reason to spend $$$ on your superstar yet.

This means that the Blazers will have to be very careful with their moves. I've watched the Oakland A's (baseball) squander countless opportunities to improve the team for the future by signing players at high salaries (Holliday, Crisp, Fuentes) when the team wasn't ready to win yet. They can't seem to decide whether they're rebuilding or trying to eke out 80 wins. In my opinion, you have to have a plan that specifies a point in the future when you plan to win, and not deviate from that plan just because you think so-and-so will help your team in the present.

All that said, if the Blazers can't put a package of picks and players together for Anthony Davis (this would be difficult without including Aldridge), they need to make decisions which make the team ready to win 2-3 years down the road. The lottery makes it difficult to predict where you'll draft even if you have the worst record in the league, so trying to bank on that #1 pick in any year is unrealistic.

Since the Blazers have no GM right now (and no head coach), I'll draft the guys who have the most upside. They may not look great this year, but give 'em playing time and in a couple of years it could work out. That said, I like UConn center Andre Drummond at the 6 spot (18 years old, plenty of raw talent, needs time to develop). He may go one or two spots higher, so Portland should be ready to deal up to get him. At #11, I like Duke frosh SG Austin Rivers for his scoring ability (another young player who needs time to develop).

The current starters would be
C Drummond
PF Aldridge
SF Batum
SG Rivers/Matthews - Matthews regressed last year and makes too much $$$ for his talent level. I'd like to see him traded or replaced as a starter by 2013 for sure. He would be a decent option off the bench.
PG Low-Cost Free Agent for now...upgrade this substantially in 2013 draft or free agency when ready to win.

Bench is Hickson, Kurt Thomas, etc...Need to build the bench up again within the next couple of years.

J. Crawford needs to go, looks like he has a player option for this season. Try to trade him if you can.

Again, this group doesn't look that great now, but in 2-3 years with the right moves, it could...

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