Second Half Swings

We all know that the All-Star Break marks a crucial point in any season. Some players, who have lit it up it the first half come crashing back to Earth after the break, and vice versa. Here is a list of PITCHERS whose fortunes may change drastically in the second half of the 2007 season:

Second Half Winners:

Orlando Hernandez, NYM

El Duque seems to have found a nice situation in the other New York. He posted a 3.22 ERA in the first half (13 starts) and held opponents to a .210 batting average. Before you say that his great season can't continue, consider that Hernandez has performed much BETTER after the All-Star break in recent years. He needs to stay healthy, though, which may be a long shot.

Oliver Perez, NYM

Like his teammate, Perez has put together a really nice first half, with a 3.14 ERA at the break. Opponents are managing just a .207 batting average. Perez is notoriously better in the last three months of the season, so expect him to keep up the good work. He has been very streaky in the past, though so watch for signs of him reverting to his old ways, which were pretty disastrous.

Kevin Millwood, TEX

It's hard to recommend a Rangers' pitcher, but Millwood had such an awful first half (6.16 ERA) that I think I'm safe in saying we'll see an improvement here. Millwood is typically much better after the break, posting career ERA's over 4.00 in April, May and June, but sub-4.00 in July, August and September. His strong physical makeup bodes well for handling the summer heat. His last couple of starts have also been pretty good, and I'm a big believer in grabbing a pitcher when he starts to show signs of snapping out of a slump (I grabbed Millwood two weeks ago off the free Agent wire in my 12-team AL league).

Other Second-half studs: Kelvim Escobar, Johan Santana (duh), Jose Contreras (gets better in August and September).

Second Half Losers:

Dan Haren, OAK

If you are a Haren owner, and you haven't cashed in on his early success, be prepared to do so reeeeally sooooon. After holding down an ERA in the 1.50 range for much of the first half, he has begun to slip as the weather has heated up. This is his custom, as he has posted career sub-4.00 ERA's in April, May and June, but above 4.00 in July, August and September. Perhaps with another year under his belt he will buck the trend in '07, but I wouldn't bet against history.

Brad Penny, LAD

Another first-half wunderkid, Penny has posted amazing numbers (3 HR given up, 2.39 ERA) in the first three months. He has allowed a .244 batting average against, which hints that his great ERA might be a bit overstated. Like Haren, Penny usually goes downhill in the second half, posting a 1.44 WHIP the last three years, versus a 1.20 WHIP in the first half.

Paul Byrd, CLE

Byrd did not have a great first half, finishing at the All-Star break with a 4.41 ERA, and allowing 131 hits in 102 innings pitched (a .307 batting average against). The scary thing is, his numbers typically get worse after the break. His WHIP the last three years has declined from 1.21 to 1.40 in the second half. He had been in trade rumors, so he would be someone to avoid.

Other Second Half Decliners: Jake Westbrook, Roy Halladay, Mark Buehrle, Josh Beckett.