Thursday, April 26, 2007

Tradewinds

If you are the owner of a fantasy baseball team in an AL-only or NL-only league, chances are you've been hit hard when one of your players gets traded to the other league. In most cases, you'll receive no compensation in return, and you end up filling Bobby Abreu's spot with Willie Bloomquist.

It pays well to know what deals are coming down the road. You can get full value for a player if you trade them to another team in April or May, but you won't get much in return for a player who everybody knows is heading to the other league. That's why it's important to scan the field, and make your move sooner rather than later.

Here are some interesting trade possibilities which could come to light in the next couple of months:

Miguel Cabrera, Marlins
The Florida third-sacker set a new arbitration record in the off-season, causing his salary to jump from $472,000 to $7 million. If the Marlins don't believe that they will contend for another title in the next couple of years, they might deal Cabrera (signed through 2009) for prospects. It will probably take three really good prospects to pry Cabrera away from the fish, so teams like the Yankees, Cardinals and Orioles, who don't have the minor league talent, are probably out of the running. The Angels, Indians and Rockies are teams who have a good amount of talent on the farm, and might be willing to fork out some major bucks for one of the game's most talented players. The Angels especially have a glut of young, middle infield talent with the likes of Howie Kendrick, Maicer Izturis, Brandon Wood, Erick Aybar and Sean Rodriguez. They probably wouldn't move Kendrick or Wood, but the other guys should be expendable.

Rich Harden, Athletics
The A's have one of the sorriest offenses in recent memory. If they find the Angels running away with the division in June, they might lean toward trading the talented, but oft-injured Harden. It was rumored that the A's would have traded him to the Mets in the offseason for Lastings Milledge, Phil Humber, and Aaron Heilman, but that seems like an awful lot for the Mets to give up. First, Harden will need to prove he can stay healthy, and pitch at a high level for at least a short period of time. Maybe the Cubs will want him as an appropriate replacement for Mark Prior.

Adam Dunn, Reds
At $13 million for 2008, Cincinnati might cut ties with their slugger if they fall behind in the NL Central race. There are a lot of teams who could use Dunn, but only a few who would be willing to pay his salary beyond 2007. Look to the top-tier teams in each division for a possible destination.

Bobby Abreu, Yankees
If the Bombers' pitching doesn't come around soon, they will be making decisions that don't involve winning in '07. Abreu is set to make $16 million in 2008 if the Yanks pick up his option.

Torii Hunter, Twins
Having stated that he is almost positive he will not be back with the Twins next year, Hunter is already scoping out new places to call home. Again, it will probably be the big market teams that will be able to pry Hunter away in a trade. Atlanta may lose Andruw Jones after this year, and might be willing to lock up Hunter with a three or four year deal at a lesser price.

1 comment:

Red October said...

you're certainly right - the cards of a shallow farm right now and can only dream about a cabrera deal. i would be more than happy to deal rolen away, but our system is lean. our only top 50 prospect is colby rasmus and he's being groomed to take center field when edmonds retires in 2 years. thing is - i wonder if the cards would make a push for ichiro this upcoming offseason...we could use the speed.

thanks for the post.