If you've played rotisserie-league baseball for more than a couple of years, you've probably finished out of the money at least once or twice. Unless you are a lucky owner in a league full of chumps, you've had to endure a season where you had Kerry Wood, John Smoltz, Derek Lee and Todd Helton all end up with extended stays on the DL. In such situations, there is often no way to turn your team around. You simply have to face up to a lower-division finish. Hey, it happens in the major leagues as well as fantasy baseball.
The trick is knowing when to cut bait on a losing team to maximize your chances of winning in the coming years. For inspiration, let's look at a couple of MLB teams who have either sprung up from the depths of futility, or have remained stuck in "loser" mode.
Detroit Tigers
Year............Record.............Payroll
2007............??????..............$95 million
2006............95-67...............$82 million
2005............71-91................$69 million
2004............72-90...............$46 million
2003............43-119..............$49 million
2002............55-106..............$55 million
2001.............66-96...............$49 million
When the Tigers won the ALCS in 2006, it had been nearly 20 years since the organization had been to the postseason. Detroit hit rock bottom in 2003, winning only 43 games (a .265 winning percentage), one of the worst seasons in the history of Major League Baseball. That season, the Tigers' payroll ranked 24th out of 30 Major League teams. The next season, Detroit won 72 games, an amazing increase of 29 games over the previous year. Only AFTER they experienced success with their younger, inexpensive players did they begin to substantially increase the team payroll in 2005.
When team ownership saw that they needed a few more stars to contend, they added veteran pitcher Kenny Rogers, closer Todd Jones and infielder Placido Polanco, all at multi-million dollar salaries. Of course, the 2006 season was a smashing success, but despite the high payroll, the team's foundation is still its youth. That young, inexpensive nucleus should make the Tigers competitive for years to come.
An important part of the Tigers' success has been player evaluation. In the same way, a fantasy team owner needs to assess which players will help the team in the coming years at minimal cost. Players such as Jeremy Bonderman, Mike Maroth, Brandon Inge, Craig Monroe and Jamie Walker all made huge contributions in 2006 at very affordable salaries (under $3 million apiece). Those players had all been around for a couple of seasons, and the team decided they were worth keeping. Combining these guys with the outstanding core of young players and adding in a few well-chosen veterans at the right time has been the Tigers' recipe for success.
Baltimore Orioles
Year............Record.............Payroll
2007............??????..............$93 million
2006............70-92...............$72 million
2005............74-88...............$73 million
2004............78-84...............$51 million
2003............71-91...............$73 million
2002............67-95...............$60 million
2001............63-98...............$74 million
If you want to have a fantasy team stuck in mediocrity for years, emulate the Orioles. They haven't had a winning team in years, yet team payroll is consistently in the top half of the league. They annually add players for huge sums who are at or near the end of their careers, yet don't have the strong nucleus of young players or the roster of talented veterans to support those mid-level acquisitions.
Here's a list of recent seasons, and some of the high-salaried players who didn't live up to their billing:
2003
Albert Belle........$13 million
Scott Erickson....$7 million
2004
Omar Daal..........$4.5 million
David Segui.........$7 million
2005
Sammy Sosa........$17 million
Sidney Ponson....$8.5 million
2006
Kris Benson.........$8 million
Javy Lopez..........$9 million
Bruce Chen & Rodrigo Lopez.....$4 million each
This year, it's more of the same. The names change, but the result will be similar to past years...
2007
Danys Baez..........$6 million
Kris Benson.........$7 million
Jaret Wright........$7 million
Perhaps Orioles management will get the hint after 2007. They have a developing core of young players, such as Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera and Corey Patterson, but they lack the superstar talent to justify spending over $90 million. They consistently bring in players like Kevin Millar, Jay Payton, Steve Trachsel and Aubrey Huff, all of whom will probably be out of baseball in three years.
This is an organization with no direction. They seemingly can't bring themselves to admit that there's not enough talent to win, and scrap the whole thing and start over. Don't do this with your fantasy team. If you aren't going to win this year, be the first to start dealing your overpriced players to contending teams. You will get the best deals in return. Load up that roster with promising, young players and head into next year's draft looking to pick up a couple of superstars with an eye on contending in the next year or two.
The trick is knowing when to cut bait on a losing team to maximize your chances of winning in the coming years. For inspiration, let's look at a couple of MLB teams who have either sprung up from the depths of futility, or have remained stuck in "loser" mode.
Detroit Tigers
Year............Record.............Payroll
2007............??????..............$95 million
2006............95-67...............$82 million
2005............71-91................$69 million
2004............72-90...............$46 million
2003............43-119..............$49 million
2002............55-106..............$55 million
2001.............66-96...............$49 million
When the Tigers won the ALCS in 2006, it had been nearly 20 years since the organization had been to the postseason. Detroit hit rock bottom in 2003, winning only 43 games (a .265 winning percentage), one of the worst seasons in the history of Major League Baseball. That season, the Tigers' payroll ranked 24th out of 30 Major League teams. The next season, Detroit won 72 games, an amazing increase of 29 games over the previous year. Only AFTER they experienced success with their younger, inexpensive players did they begin to substantially increase the team payroll in 2005.
When team ownership saw that they needed a few more stars to contend, they added veteran pitcher Kenny Rogers, closer Todd Jones and infielder Placido Polanco, all at multi-million dollar salaries. Of course, the 2006 season was a smashing success, but despite the high payroll, the team's foundation is still its youth. That young, inexpensive nucleus should make the Tigers competitive for years to come.
An important part of the Tigers' success has been player evaluation. In the same way, a fantasy team owner needs to assess which players will help the team in the coming years at minimal cost. Players such as Jeremy Bonderman, Mike Maroth, Brandon Inge, Craig Monroe and Jamie Walker all made huge contributions in 2006 at very affordable salaries (under $3 million apiece). Those players had all been around for a couple of seasons, and the team decided they were worth keeping. Combining these guys with the outstanding core of young players and adding in a few well-chosen veterans at the right time has been the Tigers' recipe for success.
Baltimore Orioles
Year............Record.............Payroll
2007............??????..............$93 million
2006............70-92...............$72 million
2005............74-88...............$73 million
2004............78-84...............$51 million
2003............71-91...............$73 million
2002............67-95...............$60 million
2001............63-98...............$74 million
If you want to have a fantasy team stuck in mediocrity for years, emulate the Orioles. They haven't had a winning team in years, yet team payroll is consistently in the top half of the league. They annually add players for huge sums who are at or near the end of their careers, yet don't have the strong nucleus of young players or the roster of talented veterans to support those mid-level acquisitions.
Here's a list of recent seasons, and some of the high-salaried players who didn't live up to their billing:
2003
Albert Belle........$13 million
Scott Erickson....$7 million
2004
Omar Daal..........$4.5 million
David Segui.........$7 million
2005
Sammy Sosa........$17 million
Sidney Ponson....$8.5 million
2006
Kris Benson.........$8 million
Javy Lopez..........$9 million
Bruce Chen & Rodrigo Lopez.....$4 million each
This year, it's more of the same. The names change, but the result will be similar to past years...
2007
Danys Baez..........$6 million
Kris Benson.........$7 million
Jaret Wright........$7 million
Perhaps Orioles management will get the hint after 2007. They have a developing core of young players, such as Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera and Corey Patterson, but they lack the superstar talent to justify spending over $90 million. They consistently bring in players like Kevin Millar, Jay Payton, Steve Trachsel and Aubrey Huff, all of whom will probably be out of baseball in three years.
This is an organization with no direction. They seemingly can't bring themselves to admit that there's not enough talent to win, and scrap the whole thing and start over. Don't do this with your fantasy team. If you aren't going to win this year, be the first to start dealing your overpriced players to contending teams. You will get the best deals in return. Load up that roster with promising, young players and head into next year's draft looking to pick up a couple of superstars with an eye on contending in the next year or two.
2 comments:
Great post, Scott. So many franchises plod along year after year bringing in guaranteed mediocrities simply because they're recognizable names and because it's the safe thing to do. (If you sign Tom Gordon and he blows a save, it's Gordon's fault. But if Henry Owens blows that same game, sports talk radio the next day is all about why the GM is such an idiot to not have a real closer on the team.)
I'm not a Royals fan, but one thing about them -- they finally seem to have a plan in mind. Outside of the Gil Meche signing -- which looked idiotic at the time but has worked out pretty well so far -- I like their strategy of grabbing up former phenoms (Luke Hudson, Odalis Perez, Brandon Duckworth) because, hey, what the hell, you're not gonna win this year anyway, and if just one of them has a decent first half, you can flip him for prospects, like Elmer Dessens last year.
Butch,
Yeah, I like what the Royals are doing, too. I almost wrote about them as a team following in the Tigers' footsteps. They definitely don't have the starting pitching to contend this year, but they have a solid nucleus of promising young players. They just need a little more time and some of their pitching to work out like you said.
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