Maybe Next Year

After winning my Roto-style, AL-only league in 2007, I had to settle for 2nd place in '08. After spending much of the season in either fourth or fifth place, my squad put together a nice run to challenge the leaders. However, we couldn't catch the top team, and settled for next-best, finishing 3 points behind the winners, and just 1/2 point ahead of the 3rd place team.

My team was really strong in the pitching categories, but offense was a challenge all year. We redrafted Chone Figgins as our primary source of speed. When he got injured early on, we fell 20 steals behind the 9th place team in that category. After his return, we made up a lot of ground, but only finished with 2 points in the steals category. That made it much more difficult to put together enough points in the other stats to make a run at first place.

Our pitching staff was dominant, finishing first or second in Wins, Saves, ERA and WHIP. However, we decided to go with only 4 starting pitchers at times (due to injuries), and that hampered us in the Strikeout department, where we only finished seventh. I love piecing together a starting staff of low-priced pitchers, and it worked again for me in '08. I kept Jeremy Guthrie, who was good until he got injured. I also picked up Gavin Floyd and Glen Perkins off the waiver wire early on, and added Mark Buehrle after his slow start. I also had Joe Saunders at $1 from the previous year. I had more than enough bullpen, with Mariano Rivera and George Sherill garnering a bunch of saves. Jensen Lewis replaced Sherrill, and Joey Devine and Frank Francisco tossed in a few saves as well.

Offensively, we were above average in everything but steals. However, we weren't great in any category, with our highest finish being 4th. My two biggest regrets of the season were keeping Miguel Batista over Cliff Lee --- and drafting Alexei Ramirez and then dumping him in April to keep Juan Uribe. Ramirez could have potentially given me the couple of extra points I needed to win. My $2 catchers Miguel Olivo and Dioner Navarro both overachieved somewhat, although I think Olivo can match his '08 stats next year, since he's been promised the starting job. Mike Aviles, Brian Buscher, Marcus Thames and Adam Lind were all nice free agent pickups, but the team lacked enough power to contend for the top in Home Runs and RBI.

Even though we came up short in '08, I stand by my philosophy of building a cheap starting pitching staff, paying top dollar for one established closer and base stealer, and then spending the rest on offense. Starting pitching is the easiest commodity to acquire in most leagues. In fact, you can often build a tremendous rotation from the free agent wire if you can pick up some players who start out poorly.

That's it! I'm just hoping my AL players don't get traded to the other league before next season!

Royals and Marlins Swap Players

On the day the 2008 World Series ended, a couple of young teams tried to better themselves. The Florida Marlins sent power-hitting first baseman Mike Jacobs to the Kansas City Royals for reilief pitcher Leo Nunez.

Jacobs came to the Marlins three years ago from the Mets, and hit 32 home runs in 2008. Despite the big power numbers, his batting average was under .250, and that probably won't get any better in the cavernous confines in KC. Jacobs, who just turned 28, joins a team that already has a number of similar players who are best at either first base or DH, including Ross Gload, Ryan Shealy and Billy Butler. Look for one or more of those guys to be traded, although it would be a surprise if Butler was dealt, as he has the most upside of those three. With a lineup including Alex Gordon, Jose Guillen, Butler and now Jacobs, the Royals look to improve an offense that has been perenially dismal.

Nunez had an ERA under 3.00 for the Royals last year, and the Marlins figure to turn him into a setup man or potential closer. The Marlins are a smart organization, and I think they realize that guys who put up Jacobs' kind of numbers are easier to come by than quality pitchers. This may be a trade that helps both teams, but I see this as part of a Florida rebuilding effort similar to what occured in Tampa this year.

Done With Dunn?

A couple of months ago, in my article on the Toronto Blue Jays, I mentioned Reds' slugger Adam Dunn as a good fit for the Jays' cleanup spot. Apparently, I was not the only one who thought that way, as trade rumors for Dunn have been heard north of the border. However, Jays' GM JP Riccardi went the extra mile to quell such talk, saying that Dunn is a lifetime .230 hitter who strikes out a lot. He even went so far as to say that Dunn doesn't like baseball that much, and that the team does not want Adam Dunn.

This is the problem with Riccardi and his inability to craft an offense for Toronto that will help the team compete with Boston and New York. Either he is bluffing in a major way (which would only serve to tick Dunn off) or he simply does not realize that Dunn is an offensive force despite the strikeouts. Look at the Oakland A's and the offesnive production that they get out of Jack Cust who is somewhat of a lesser man's Adam Dunn. The Blue Jays seem set on filling their lineup with guys like David Eckstein, Lyle Overbay and Joe Inglett. Until they see that high batting average does not correlate well to winning, they will wallow in mediocrity.

American League Buy-Low Candidates

The 2008 Fantasy Baseball season is a little over 1/4 finished, and some players are still not hitting their weight. Let's take a look at some guys to target in your trade efforts over the next week or two:

Nick Swisher, OF, CHW
Moving to a new team and hitter's park hasn't helped Swish one bit. Not only is his batting average terrible at .213, but his power numbers are way down. There's no way that a guy as young as he is with his great batting eye will continue to struggle. See if you can parlay those struggles and maybe injury fears into getting a cheap deal on him.

Travis Hafner, 1B/DH, CLE
Pronk is off to a slow start (.228 avg, 20 RBI), but don't let that fool you. When he gets going, he can carry a team (see David Ortiz the last two weeks). If you have an open DH slot, Hafner is the perfect guy to trade for right now.

Jhonny Peralta, SS, CLE
Another Indians hitter whose average is down in the dumps, Peralta is a talented player who is in no danger of losing his starting gig. He does have 8 HR to go along with his .225 batting average, so you might not be able to pry him away from another owner for cheap. Expect .280 with good power the rest of the way.

Evan Longoria, 3B, TAM
Longoria may always hit for a low average. However, he has not yet scratched the surface on his tremendous power yet in the bigs. He will definitely put up 40+ home runs someday, and you want him on your team when he does.

G. Matthews Jr, OF, LAA
Whispers of alleged past steroid use will dog Matthews whenever he slumps. He's hitting .223 so far this year, and some might feel that his past performance was illegally enhanced. It's far more likely that he's just off to a slow start, and will start producing very soon.

K. Johjima, C, SEA
Having lost his hitting touch early in 2008, Johjima has started to look better at the dish. He should be one of the better hitting AL catchers the rest of the way.

DAVIDs AND GOLIATHs (Part 2)

The Toronto Blue Jays

Of the three Davids, Toronto most resembles a Goliath. They have more talent than the Devil Rays and Orioles, and consistently spend more money than either club. Their biggest problem is that they play in a division with two elite teams. In 2005, they scored 70 more runs than their opponents, which would normally get them within striking distance of a playoff spot. Yet, the Jays finished 80-82, only winning six of 18 games against the Yankees. When it became apparent that Toronto needed to do more to compete, they went out and signed young hurler A.J. Burnett and slugging third baseman Troy Glaus. In 2006, they finished 87-75, still not good enough to make the playoffs. Last year, they posted another winning record, but were shut out of the playoff picture once again.

2007 AL Ranks: ERA 2nd, OBP 12th, SLG 8th

The current roster boasts a former Cy-Young award winner (Roy Halladay), who is part of a good, fairly young rotation. The bullpen is not great, but its shortcomings can be overcome by good starting pitching and productive offense. The Blue Jays’ hitting leaves something to be desired, especially the ability to get on base. The injury to Troy Glaus last year severely hampered the power number of this offense. They have replaced Glaus with former Cardinals’ third-sacker Scott Rolen, who is already on the DL. The Jays don’t have much speed, but brought in shortstop David Eckstein to swipe a few bases.

Starting Rotation: The Blue Jays have a very good nucleus of starting pitching. Roy Halladay is a consistent performer who keeps his ERA around 3.60. Aside from missing time in 2004 and 2005 due to injuries, he is a durable ace. Burnett is a viable second starter (career ERA 3.79) when he’s healthy, but he has pitched 200 innings in a season only twice. His injury-plagued career makes it necessary for Toronto to keep another decent starter in the fold. Both Halladay and Burnett are 30 years old, so the window of opportunity with these players will probably close in the next three to four years. 26 year old Dustin McGowan turned in a 4.08 ERA in his first full season, throwing 170 innings last year. Shaun Marcum posted a 4.13 mark in 159 innings, and Jesse Litsch tossed 111 quality innings last year, adding a 3.81 ERA to the mix. That’s really an outstanding rotation from top to bottom that should continue to improve. One area of weakness is that the rotation contains no left-handers. It’s not a major concern, as long as they are succeeding, but opponents can stack their lineups with left-handed hitters to take advantage of all the righties.

Bullpen: The Toronto bullpen was in pretty good shape a couple of years ago, but injuries to closer B.J. Ryan and general ineffectiveness have plagued the pen as a whole. Casey Janssen impressed last year, but is due to miss the 2008 season with a bum arm. Jeremy Accardo is sharing closing duties until Ryan gets back into form, but he is really better suited for setup work. Guys like Scott Downs, Brian Wolfe, Brian Tallet and Jason Frasor provide good stability. It’s a fairly young bullpen, with only one player (Downs) over age 30, so these players should be contributing to the Jays’ success for a few more years. Getting a healthy and effective Ryan back will be the key, as everyone else will be able to slide into more familiar roles.

Lineup: (Note - This article was written before the Jays dumped Frank Thomas, and he was rightly snatched up by the Oakland A's)
Here’s where the fun begins. The Blue Jays must decide what direction to take with their offense because this group doesn’t do anything particularly well. Frank Thomas embodies the type of player that the Jays should target, but he’s 40 years old. Toronto can’t compete with the Yankees or Red Sox on this front, and will have to hope the young players like Alex Rios and Aaron Hill continue to improve, or they’ll have to look elsewhere. Let’s examine the current lineup:

Player Proj. OB% Proj. SLG %
Eckstein .360 .370
Stewart .345 .395
Rios .360 .505
Wells .330 .470
Thomas .360 .460
Hill .340 .470
Overbay .350 .450
Rolen .350 .440
Zaun .340 .400

Last year’s On Base Percentage was .327, which ranked 12th in the AL. This year’s group could push .340, provided that Wells, Overbay and Rolen bounce back from bad years. The Big Hurt also needs to keep his production up, as well as Shannon Stewart. For a catcher, Zaun provides a good OBP. Hill and Rios do not draw a lot of walks, so the only way they will probably raise their On Base Percentage is by getting more hits. If the team can get on base at a .340 clip, that would put them in the middle of the pack in the American League.

Of equal concern is Toronto’s Slugging Percentage (.419), which ranked 8th last year. Again, if the big bats produce (that’s a big IF), they could finish around .430, which might place them 5th or so. Also, on the bench is Matt Stairs, who can provide some pop against right-handers.

I see this group falling a bit short, due to age and injuries. They really need to relegate the Stewart/Stairs duo to the bench, and find a permanent solution that provides more consistent offense. Down on the farm is outfielder Travis Snider, who might be a year away. Adam Lind might be an option, but he struggled in 2007. Other than that, the Jays will have to look outside the organization for help. Adam Dunn (career .381 OBP, .517 SLG) could be acquired in a trade if Toronto would part with a young pitcher or two. Dunn’s been pretty consistent throughout his career, and could DH or play first. Also available is free agent Kenny Lofton, who would be an upgrade at the leadoff spot and in the outfield. By adding these two guys, and taking out Stewart/Stairs and Overbay, the required batting numbers are taking shape.

This team is pretty close to being a contender. With a revamping of the batting order, they could conceivably challenge for a playoff spot in the next year or two.

Edit: With the departure of Thomas, I see the need for at least two new offensive starters to raise the OBP and SLG. That's hard to accomplish in one season. To me, this offense looks like it will be high on batting average, but low on the other stats that correlate well to winning.

DAVIDs AND GOLIATHs (Part 1)

DAVIDs AND GOLIATHs

(Or) HOW THE JAYS, RAYS AND O’S ARE TRYING TO COMPETE WITH THE YANKEES AND RED SOX




In a perfect world, everyone would be equal. The playing field would always be level, and no special privileges would be given to the elite. Hmmm. Then again, there are certain levels of joy and satisfaction resulting from those situations in which the underdog defies seemingly insurmountable odds to defeat his adversary. The NCAA’s March Madness is a perfect example of this. We all want to see the “Cinderella” teams knock off the top seeds. It makes for good entertainment to have powerful teams to root for or against, whether or not those teams seem to have undeserved advantages.

The Bible tells the story of young David, a lowly shepherd boy who risked his life for his nation. Armed with just a sling, he volunteered to fight the towering Goliath, a massive, mocking giant clad in armor. When David took down Goliath with a well-placed stone to the forehead, a rejuvenated Israel routed the Philistines, David eventually became king, and history was changed forever.

In Major League Baseball, there are Davids and Goliaths. Because there is no salary cap, the franchises that have the most power also have an uncompetitive advantage on the playing field. The teams from New York (Mets and Yankees), the Boston Red Sox, and Chicago’s White Sox and Cubs are the “Goliaths”. They have huge fan bases, high ticket proceeds, lucrative TV deals, tons of marketing revenue, and thus have rich owners who can afford to outbid any of the other teams for top talent. The remaining teams are the “Davids”. Because of the financial inequality of teams in the league, they are competing at a serious disadvantage.

The American League’s Eastern Division boasts two of the Goliaths, the Red Sox and the Yankees. In the last 10 seasons, only Boston and New York have won the division crown, with the Yanks finishing first nine times (Boston finished first in 2007). Those two teams have also taken five of the ten World Series Championships in that tenure. To illustrate the slanted playing field, one only has to look at the (total roster) salaries for those teams in 2008:

New York Yankees $209,081,579
Boston Red Sox $133,440,037
Toronto Blue Jays $98,641,957
Baltimore Orioles $67,196,248
Tampa Bay Devil Rays $43,820,598

The top team, New York, is in a class by itself. Owner George Steinbrenner has outspent his nearest competitors by over 50%. Imagine running a diner, and only cooking with imitation ingredients, while the restaurant down the street is using the real thing. Compared to the Yankees, that’s what every other team in Major League Baseball is doing. In fact, the Yankees are paying third baseman Alex Rodriguez more than the Florida Marlins’ entire roster is earning in 2008. Of the thirty baseball teams, Rodriguez’ salary exceeds 30% of the entire payroll for 23 of those clubs.

Although the Boston Red Sox are a true Goliath, their 2007 division title was their first in many years. It might be more correct to label them a “lesser Goliath”. The Red Sox have done their best to keep pace with the Yankees, placing in the Top 8 for team salaries each of the last ten years. The Sox’ team salary has been second only to the Yankees each year from 2004 – 2007, and also in ’01 and ’02. While the Yankees have outpaid Boston for much of the game’s top talent, the Sox have been wiser, avoiding some of the aged veterans that the Steinbrenners seem to covet. Boston’s shrewd roster management has paid off in World Series titles in 2004 and 2007.

The Toronto Blue Jays enjoyed great success in the 1990’s, winning two championships. However, since the 1992-93 campaigns, the franchise has struggled to put a winner back on the field. Recently, they have finished above .500 more often than not, but the Jays cannot seem to finish within ten games of the Yankees or gain a wild card spot. For the last 10 years, Toronto has typically placed in the middle of baseball’s salary scale, ranging from 10th highest to 25th.

For the past decade or so, the Baltimore Orioles have been best known as a team that annually underachieves, spending big money on players who quickly make the front office regret it. After they won the division in 1997, Baltimore has finished 4th nine times and third once. Obviously, that hasn’t gotten them into the playoffs, and O’s fans must be wondering when the next post-season appearance will be. Baltimore had the highest paid roster in 1998, but has drifted down to the middle of the pack since then. Last year’s fourth place finishers “earned” $93 million.

Look up futility in the dictionary, and you’re likely to see a Devil Ray. Tampa Bay has finished last place in the AL East every season except one. In 2004, they won 70 games for the only time in franchise history and finished fourth. The franchise winning percentage hovers around 40%, and that makes the team a really bad draw. However, plans for a badly-needed new stadium are being drawn up, and an influx of young talent might be making Rays’ fans excited for the next few years. The Tampa franchise has at least not spent much money, placing last or next-to-last on the payroll scale for the last six years.

In light of the disparity of resources, talent and fan interest, how can the Davids in the AL East beat the Goliaths? How can the Orioles, Blue Jays and Devil Rays possibly rise up and challenge the Bronx Bombers and BoSox for those elusive playoff spots? Let’s start by drawing up a general blueprint for success, and applying it to each of the three David teams.

First, let’s examine the correlation between various statistics and actually making the playoffs, which is the primary goal of our three David teams. Obviously, the secret to winning baseball games lies in scoring more runs than your opponent. Do this enough times, and the result will be a winning record, with a potential playoff berth. Since 2004, the four American league playoff teams have scored an average of 120 runs more than their opponents during the season. This works out to a difference of about .74 runs per game. Those are big numbers. The worst playoff team statistically during that stretch was the 2006 Oakland A’s, who only managed a positive differential of 44 runs. However, the low differential can be partially explained by the fact that there are only four teams in the AL West, which makes it easier to make the playoffs. That’s a luxury our AL East teams don’t have, since the division has five teams. It looks like the 2004 Minnesota Twins were the next lowest-ranking playoff team during that time period, so let’s use their run differential of 65 as the baseline for realistically challenging for a playoff spot.

To build a blueprint for success, we need to discover what a playoff team looks like. After reviewing the team rankings for the past four years in various categories, an old adage holds true: Pitching Wins Ballgames. The correlation between pitching and winning games is stronger than that of hitting, base running or fielding. The most important single statistic turns out to be ERA. The sixteen playoff teams since 2004 have averaged an AL ERA rank of 4.3 (out of 14 teams), compared to an average slugging rank of 5.7, and a 6.3 average stolen base ranking. The importance of pitching is further illustrated by looking at the average ranks for the sixteen playoff teams in other categories: Walks Issued (4.6), Home Runs Allowed (4.6), and Strikeouts (5.1). On the offensive side, On Base Average is the most important stat (4.8), with Batting Average (5.1) and Slugging Percentage showing less of a correlation to winning.

The tie between getting effective pitching and winning games is not quite strong enough to ignore the other facets of the game. However, in building our model of a playoff team, we can confidently say that building a good pitching staff is our top priority. Since the starting pitchers contribute more to a team’s ERA (innings pitched) than the bullpen does, our David teams need to address the rotation first and foremost. This will give the Rays, Jays and O’s the best chance to compete.

To find an existing model of our “dream team”, we have to look back a couple of years. Prior to the 2000 season, the Oakland A’s had not made the playoffs for 7 years. Then they inserted three guys into their rotation by the names of Hudson, Mulder and Zito (Tim Hudson actually started some games in 1999). Known forever after as the Big Three, these players became the cornerstone of the A’s success for the next seven years. From 2000 to 2006, the A’s finished first or second in their division each year, winning the division four times, and securing the AL wild card berth once. The team never ranked lower than fourth in ERA during those seven seasons. (Although the A’s traded Mark Mulder away before the 2005 season, they got pitcher Danny Haren in return, who was a catalyst in the rotation for the next two seasons.)

The A’s represent the model for what the David teams are trying to become. Oakland is a small-market, low budget franchise who must make superior roster decisions to have a chance to compete. They added three starting pitchers who each contributed 200 quality innings to their team for several years. The effect was that Oakland had a top-notch ERA, and this propelled them into position to compete every year. Keeping these three pitchers in the fold meant that they could supplement the pitching staff with good, but not great players mostly acquired in trades or free agency. Although the Big Three were homegrown, i.e. developed in the A’s farm system, there is not much evidence to support the idea that developing players is more essential to winning than acquiring those players via outside acquisitions.

Having established that starting pitching is our top priority, let’s look at the importance of the bullpen. The pitching statistics for the A’s from 2000 to 2006 reveal that the starting rotation had much more to do with the team’s low ERA than the ‘pen did. For example, in 2003, Oakland went 96-66. The team ERA was 3.63, ranking first in the American League. Starting pitchers contributed 1018 innings with an ERA of 3.62. The relievers compiled a 3.65 ERA in just 423 innings. Thus, the bullpen had less than half of the impact on ERA that the rotation did. In other years during their streak of success, the importance of the bullpen fluctuated slightly depending on whether the ERA was higher or lower than that of the starting pitching, but it should never be considered that the bullpen is just as important as the rotation. This is a common misconception that you will hear around baseball today. Even if the bullpen outperforms the rotation substantially, as was the case with last year’s Red Sox (3.10 ERA to the starters’ 4.21), it is the effectiveness of the starting pitcher which determines how much the bullpen must be used.

Based on the category rankings for teams that made the playoffs which we discussed above, it is important that we develop a priority list based on the correlations between those statistics and winning. We have established that the rotation is of prime importance. We also know from statistical evidence that the bullpen carries around 40-60% of the importance of the rotation. Since there is only a slight correlation between base running and winning, we can move speed to the bottom of our priority list. Defense is another area that does not show a strong tie to winning games. (Guess who had the majors’ best fielding percentage in 2007? Baltimore.) Therefore, I would rank the priorities of our roster assembly as follows:

1- Starting pitching
2- Hitting (emphasis: On Base Percentage over Slugging Percentage)
3- Bullpen
4- Defense
5- Speed (all-around)

This agrees with the method the A’s used to attain their success. Those teams combined low ERA and high OBP to win games, and were average or lower in other areas. As an example, the A’s 2006 squad placed 4th in ERA and 7th in OBP. In the other major categories mentioned earlier, they were 9th or lower.

It’s not enough to identify our priorities. It’s also necessary to construct a business plan of sorts. We’ll need to identify the current state of each roster, what kind of players each team needs to target, how much each team can spend, and how long it will take to become competitive. Bad teams stay bad because they don’t have a plan that makes realistic sense.

Consider the Baltimore Orioles, who have not made the playoffs in 10 years. Despite ranking average or higher in team salary, the O’s don’t win an average or better number of games. Looking at some recent history, we can see why the Orioles have maintained their mediocrity. Baltimore brass has repeatedly acquired players for large sums of cash who did not perform as expected.

2007 Jaret Wright ($7 million), Kris Benson ($7 million), Danys Baez ($6 million)
2006 Kris Benson ($8 million), Javy Lopez ($9 million), Bruce Chen ($4 million), Rodrigo Lopez ($4 million)
2005 Sammy Sosa ($17 million), Sidney Ponson ($8.5 million)
2004 David Segui ($7 million), Omar Daal ($4.5 million)
2003 Albert Belle ($13 million), Scott Erickson ($7 million)

Now, every team has injuries, and every team gets players that don’t perform well. But, as the above illustrates, the O’s have developed a bad trend into a way of life. They consistently pay too much for players that are either past their prime, have questionable talent, or are huge injury risks. This is the kind of behavior that a team must avoid to rise up from second-division finishes.

(In Part 2 of DAVIDs and GOLIATHs, I will examine the Toronto Blue Jays chances for success.)

Week One is In the Books

The big story in 2008 Major League Baseball is the Detroit Tigers. How can a team laden with hitting stars and some very good starting pitchers be 0-7? The Tigers are not hitting a lick, and while the pitching hasn't been awful, it hasn't been that good either. The lineup is in a huge funk right now, and desperately needs to get Curtis Granderson back. It's still veeery early, and this team will rebound, but you have to wonder if the slow start will keep them out of the playoffs in the end. I've got Miguel Cabrera (.100) and Placido Polanco (.115) killing my batting average, but like I said - It's Early.

In Cleveland, the Tribe fans are licking their wounds after Joe Bo gave up a monstrous grand slam to Torii Hunter last night, costing Cleveland a game that many other closers would have locked down. For Borowski owners, it's not time to panic yet, as the Indians have been very patient with him over the last two years. If he continues to struggle, the Tribe would rather keep Rafael Betancourt in a setup role and use either Rafael Perez or Masa Kobayashi in the 9th. Kobayashi has struggled a bit early, so keep your eye on the Indians pen and act quickly when you hear any news.

The Baltimore Orioles are off to a hot start, but don't expect it to last. The team just doesn't have the quality pitching that is necessary for a season-long run at the playoffs. Luke Scott has been a monster so far, hitting over .500 in the first 7 games.

With Brad Lidge having pitched the last couple of games for the Phillies, Flash Gordon picked up his first save of the season last night. The Philly closing situation bears watching, as both guys can be prone to big struggles, but can also be very effective, as history has shown. I like Lidge if he has his head on straight. However, Philadelphia is not always the best place for that to happen.

I also take back what I said about George Sherrill not being ready for the closer role in Baltimore. I actually drafted him for $12 because he was the only closer going so cheap. So far, I'm enjoying his 4 saves and microscopic WHIP.

Roto Tidbits - Opening Day 2008

Here are some stats or other little quirky details that you probably didn't know and might want to consider for 2008. Pay no attention to the picture, as the Yankees were rained out...

Livan Hernandez beat the Angels in his Minnesota debut yesterday, scattering 7 hits over seven quality innings. Did you know that Livan's career ERA indoors is just 3.31, while outdoors it's 4.44? I'll bet the Twins knew that when they acquired him...Also, his best career month is May, when he sports a 3.78 ERA. In June, it goes up to over five.

Franklin Gutierrez went yard yesterday to help give the tribe a wild 10-8 win over the Chisox. He should see some opportunities in Cleveland's outfield this season, and Monday's dinger won't hurt his chances for more playing time. In limited action (48 AB), he has a dismal .188 batting average indoors, but he hits .284 outdoors, where most of his games are played. He also hits lefties at a .314 clip.

Mariner DH Jose Vidro went 0-3 yesterday in the M's win over Texas. However, he is normally a quick starter. Vidro hits .310 for his career before the All-Star break, with his best months being April and June. After the break, his average falls to .292, still not too shabby, but June might be a good time to deal him away if you have him on your roster.

Carlos Silva is a new acquisition for Seattle in '08. It is rare for a pitcher to make so much dough on so little talent. Opposing batters have feasted on Silva to the tune of a .299 career average. Even in 2005, when he had a 3.40 ERA, opposing hitters swatted .290 against him. How does he do it? Well, you probably don't want him on your fantasy team, but if you're stuck with him, know that his career first half ERA is 4.57, but it drops to 4.00 after the break. By then you'll be out of the race anyways, so it won't matter much.

The 2008 Draft

My AL-only roto league is having its draft this Friday and Saturday. I tend to be ultra-prepared for any fantasy draft, shunning fantasy sports magazines for my own projections and valuations. For instance, this year I have a spreadsheet with 2007 stats, 2008 projections and valuations, a minor league list, printouts by position, and position eligibilty charts. I am also running the draft, so I will be entering picks and tracking team rosters. It makes for a fun, crazy, tiring couple of days.

With two games (in Japan) already in the books, guys who have performed well so far will probably be bid up disproportionately. Rich Harden might go for $19 instead of $13. Jack Hannahan will be on every team's radar, based on his early dinger. Huston Street might be obtained at 70% of his normal salary based on one lousy appearance. I will try to be a smart owner and ignore the early Red Sox/A's results, and focus on traditional patterns, such as Harden's arm falling off, and Street's phenomenal ERA and WHIP numbers.

I go into this draft as the defending champion, and also carrying the lowest salary into the draft. I dropped every player from last year's team who I felt was not a huge bargain. I sacrificed guys like Jonny Gomes ($6), A.J. Pierszynski ($10) and Mariano Rivera ($36). In my experience, it's better to have lots of money going in than it is to have a full roster and no cash. I also feel that each open slot is an opportunity to find a bargain, and if you fill that slot with one of your keepers who is not a huge bargain, you are really limiting your options. For example, I let Justin Morneau drop, as his $37 salary could be used to pick up two good players --- maybe Kenji Johjima and Nick Swisher, both of whom are available.

Knowing which positions are lean in talent is a major key to any draft. It looks like there are 7 closers available in our draft, so I won't be going hog-wild spending money on George Sherill. I also see four shortstops valued at over $20, but only six outfielders. You can bet I will be taking a couple of the best outfielders, leaving only the scraps for the other owners. We can keep up to six minor leaguers as well, but I elected to keep only two, hoping to better my farm system in the draft.

I drafted the injured Francisco Liriano last year for $2, and I'm hoping he will pay nice dividends this year, joining a very cheap staff that includes Javier Vazquez ($7), Jarrod Washburn ($2) , Gil Meche ($3) and Shaun Marcum ($6). Other than Meche, I'm not banking on any of those guys repeating their '07 performances, so I will be looking to make some early deals. I also have no returning closer, since Rivera didn't make the cut, so I am going to have to probably pay $25 - $30 for a decent closer, and possibly add a lower-tier guy such as Sherrill or Todd Jones. I punted saves last year with one of my teams when Chris Ray went down, and we finished 8th.

Roto drafts in salary leagues are never boring because if one player gets bid up too high, or ends up going for a baragin, it affects the rest of the draft. On the first day of the '07 draft, our league spent a lot of money for the superstars. That didn't leave much money for the average players, and some good talent ended up being acquired at ridiculous bargain prices. I don't think the same thing will happen this year, but it pays to be flexible. If guys start jumping off the board at higher than expected prices, don't panic. It just means that you will probably get Hank Blalock for $11 later on. You don't want to have more than $5 left at the end of the draft, but you don't want to spend all of your money either, and not be able to grab those $3 bargains at the end.

2008 American League Predictions

With one game already in the books, here are my 2008 American League predictions:

AL EAST
RED SOX 92-70
YANKEES 89-73
BLUE JAYS 84-78
ORIOLES 77-85
D' RAYS 70-92

AL CENTRAL
INDIANS 94-68
TIGERS 93-69 (wild card)
WHITE SOX 87-75
TWINS 78-84
ROYALS 69-93

AL WEST
ANGELS 89-73
MARINERS 84-78
RANGERS 71-97
A'S 64-98

SYNOPSIS: It looks to me like there won't be any runaway teams this year, with no one poised to crack 95 wins. I think the Indians have the best bullpen in the AL, with the Red Sox a close second. The bullpen has become more important in the last 5 years or so, even possibly more so than the rotation.

I have seen some people picking Tampa Bay to finish in the top 3 in the East, but beyond the top of their rotation, they still don't have enough to compete. Don't write off the Blue Jays this year. With a couple of (good) breaks, they could win a division that the Yankees and 'Sox have dominated for years.

I love the makeup of the Indians this year, but the Tiger offense will give them a run for their money. I still believe that pitching is more important than offense when it come to winning games, and thus, the Tigers will settle for the wild card. My surprise pick is Chicago to win 87 games. They won't make the playoffs, as the two teams ahead of them are too good, but they are better than most of the other teams in the AL.

The Halos will cruise to the West title, but they have some pitching questions and a light-hitting lineup that won't produce a ton of runs. I don't think the Mariners will produce as much offense as last year. Expect the A's to be downright horrible, with no offense and a weaker pitching staff than in years past.

Pre-Season Player Notes

Here are a few of my thoughts heading into the 2008 MLB season:

Closers - In Baltimore, George Sherrill has been named the closer. While his stats last year were impressive (0.99 WHIP), he only pitched 45 innings. He does not seem to have the closer's mentality that makes guys like Joe Borowski so effective at shutting the door. I could be wrong, but I think Sherrill will struggle in his new role. I've always wanted to see what Jamie Walker could do as a full-time closer. Also, look for Greg Aquino to be a darkhorse in the Orioles' pen this year. As an alternative, if you already have a proven closer, think about picking up Jeremy Accardo as a guy who would get some saves in Toronto if B.J. Ryan goes down.

Devil Rays - While I love what Tampa has done with the top of their rotation (Kazmir, Garza, Shields), the 4 and 5 spots look like a disaster waiting to happen. This team is still at least a couple of years away from contending, and I don't see many wins coming out of those two rotation spots. The bullpen doesn't look any better than it did a year ago, Troy Percival not withstanding. Once you get past the top hitters, the bench is looking very thin, and Baldelli and Floyd are injury-prone, so guys like Eric Hinske will play a lot. If they can stockpile some more talented arms, including some for the 'pen, they will eventually crack the .500 mark. But not this year.
Same thing with the Royals...they have some nice arms at the top of the rotation, but the bullpen looks baaaaad again, and there's not really much offense on the bench. I'd like to see Justin Huber get a nice look this year, as not many of the other bench guys have much potential.

Detroit - The Tigers' lineup is monstrous this year. Someone like Jacque Jones can really benefit from having all those studs around them. You might want to raise his value up just a notch or two, as opposing pitchers will definitely be giving him some pitches to hit. The bullpen is no better than it was a year ago, and I think that Detroit should have addressed this issue rather than giving up all those prospects for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. The 'pen has become arguably the most important facet of a winning team, and was a big reason why the Tigers didn't repeat their playoff appearance from 2006. Thus, the Indians still look like the team to beat in the AL Central.

The M's Offense - Remember last year, when the Mariners were getting all of those clutch hits? Then, around August, the offense seemed to go into shutdown mode. What will this year's offense look like? I would definitely count on less runs scored, and lesser seasons from Vidro and Betancourt. Jose Lopez should return to form, and Brad Wilkerson remains somewhat of a mystery. This was kind of a patchwork group that really performed last year. Don't bank on it happening again in 2008.

Frankie Francisco - Keep an eye on this Ranger pitcher. A couple of years ago, he became semi-famous for throwing a chair at a heckler, and hitting the man's wife instead. Then, he got hurt and missed all of 2005 and most of '06. His numbers last year weren't what they were in '04, but the guy throws 97 MPH and there is not a sure-fire closer in the Texas bullpen. I'm not saying you should spend $15 for him on draft day. Just don't forget about him.

2008 MLB Player Projections

After scouring the web for some good 2008 player projections, I kept coming across sites that wanted me to pay for their "draft kit". However, I finally stumbled across the following site, which has some pretty darn good projection numbers:
http://www.fantasysportscentral.com/baseball/managerrank.asp?w=5

Ignore their valuations if it doesn't fit your league's system.

--- ENJOY ---

2008 MLB Player Valuation

I am, by trade, a numbers guy. I love working with spreadsheets and devising complex formulas to determine value and expose weakness. Because of this, I never go into a fantasy draft just "flying by the seat of my pants". I always have a system that values players numerically, whether it makes total sense or not.

For 2008, I have devised a formula that I will use for my AL draft this year. It takes 2008 MLB Player projections, and quantifies them into a dollar amount to fit our league structure. It's not rocket science, but the formula can get a little long. The formula is based on a salary cap of $300, and a roster of 14 hitters and 9 pitchers.
If your cap is different, simply multiply the results by whatever ratio works, i.e. 500/300. It also only projects for the main 10 stat categories: HR, RBI, RUNS, SB, and AVG; WINS, SAVES, STRIKEOUTS, WHIP(ratio), and ERA.

Ok, here's the AL batting formula:

+((HR-13)/3+4+(RBI-65)/8+8+(RUNS-70)/9+8+(SB-8)/2+4)*0.5+((HITS/AB)-0.27)*AB/3

And here's the AL pitching formula:

+((WINS-8)/2+4)+((SAVES-6)/2+2)+((K's-80)/15+5)+((4.3-(EarnedRuns*9/IP))*IP/40)+((1.4-((Hits+Walks)/IP))*IP/12)

Whew!

This should give values based on 2007 performance as follows:

Alex Rodriguez $41
Jose Guillen $20
Curtis Granderson $28
Johnny Damon $18

CC Sabathia $34
Johan Santana $33
J.J. Putz $37
Shaun Marcum $16

The formula does yield some negative values. For instance, based on his 14+ ERA, Chad Orvella gets a $-4 value. These are guys that you did not want on your team last year, as they would only hurt you.

Try out the formulas if you can. It's easiest to use a spreadsheet program, like Excel. I adjust the NL formulas slightly to compensate for the weaker offensive stats, and better pitching stats. You can obtain 2008 player projections from a site like http://www.rotowire.com/ if you don't want to do the projections yourself.

Good luck in 2008!

The Grand Old Game

I came across some great excerpts from Spalding's Baseball Guide and Official League Book for 1889:

On League Parity:
Now that a club, new to championship honors [New York], has replaced one of the monopolists [Boston and Chicago], the other previously unsuccessful clubs will begin to entertain hopes of being able to "get in at the death," as the fox hunters say, in future pennant races, if not this ensuing year, and thereby a new interest will be imparted to coming campaigns.

On Excessive Drinking (Insert Steroids for 'drinking'):
The evil of drunkenness among the professional teams is one which has grown upon the fraternity until it has become too costly an abuse to be longer tolerated. Drunken professionals should be driven from service just as the crooks of a dozen years ago were, never to be allowed to return. Drunken players are not only a costly drawback to success individually, but they permeate the whole baseball fraternity with a demoralizing influence. The fact is, professional baseball playing has arrived at that point of excellence, and reached so advanced a position in regard to its financial possibilities, that it will no longer pay, in any solitary respect, to allow players of drinking habits in first-class teams.

On Rule Changes:
In 1888 the pitchers were handicapped by the absurd rule which charged runs scored on bases on balls as earned runs, successive bases on balls giving an earned run to the batting side, even in the absence of a single base hit. To estimate a pitcher's skill on such a basis is nonsense.

The rule which puts batsmen out on catches of foul balls, which, since the game originated, has been an unfair rule of play, has seen its best day; and this year the entering wedge to its ultimate disappearance has been driven in, with the practical result of the repeal of the foul tip catch. This improvement, too, is in the line of aiding the batting side, as it gets rid of one of the numerous ways of putting the batsman out.

On Professionalism:
The two great obstacles in the way of the success of the majority of professional ball players are wine and women. The saloon and the brothel are the evils of the baseball world at the present day; and we see it practically exemplified in the failure of noted players to play up to the standard they are capable of were they to avoid these gross evils. One day it is a noted pitcher who fails to serve his club at a critical period of the campaign. Anon, it is the disgraceful escapade of an equally noted umpire. And so it goes from one season to another, at the cost of the loss of thousands of dollars to clubs who blindly shut their eyes to the costly nature of intemperance and dissipation in their ranks. We tell you, gentlemen of the League and Association, the sooner you introduce the prohibition plank in your contracts the sooner you will get rid of the costly evil of drunkenness and dissipation among your players. Club after club have lost championship honors time and again by this evil, and yet they blindly condone these offences season after season. The prohibition rule from April to October is the only practical rule for removing drunkenness in your teams.

On Feats of Ability (Why Don't We Have Throwing Contests Now?)
In 1884, while connected with the Boston Union Association Club, Ed Crane, while in Cincinnati October 12 of that year, was credited with throwing a baseball 135 yards, 1 foot, and 1/2 inch, and also again at St. Louis on October 19, he was credited with throwing a ball 134 yards, 5 inches.

On Fitness (And They Never Saw Jose Canseco)
"Right worthy of welcome did those visitors appear - stalwarts every man, lumps of muscle showing beneath their tight fitting jersey garments, and a springiness in every movement which denoted grand animal vigor and the perfection of condition. We could not pick eighteen such men from the ranks of all our cricketers, and it is doubtful if we could beat them by a draft from the foot ballers. If baseball has anything to do with building up such physique we ought to encourage it, for it must evidently be above and beyond all other exercises in one at least of the essentials of true athletics."

On Umpire Duties:
The attention of the Umpire is particularly directed to possible violations of the purpose and spirit of the Rules of the following character:
SEC. 1. Laziness or loafing of players in taking their places in the field, or those allotted them by the Rules when their side is at the bat, and especially any failure to keep the bats in the racks provided for them.
The Umpire is empowered to inflict fines of not less than $5.00 nor more than $25.00 for the first offence on players during the progress of a game.

Jeter, W, and the Mick

This is undoubtedly old news to some of you, but I just stumbled across this and had to share...
I've been out of the baseball card scene for awhile now, so I was shocked to find out that Topps included a certain card in random packs of their 2007 baseball card set. The card pictures Derek Jeter swinging at a pitch, with the U.S. President George W. Bush prominently pictured in the stands, and late Yankee great Mickey Mantle looking on from the dugout.



The card was said to have been selling on EBAY for up to $800, but I believe after the initial sensation, the prices have dropped considerably.

Now I hear that Topps is including a card in its 2008 release of former New York City mayor (and Yankee fan) Rudy Giuliani apparently rooting for the hated Red Sox. If I was still an avid baseball card collector, I don't think I would like these kinds of cards that much. It seems to me that they should keep these kinds of things out of the hobby for it to maintain integrity.

It is kind of funny, though.

Mets Get Santana From Twins for 4 Prospects

Johan Santana has been traded to the Mets for four prospects, pending the Mets and Santana agreeing to a contract extension. The Mets will send Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey to Minnesota to complete the deal.

Here's how it breaks down:

The Mets get:
Johan Santana, SP
28 years old
3.22 Career ERA, 93-44 W-L record
$13 million salary in 2007
expected deal: 6-years, $150 million
projected impact: + 5 to 7 wins in the regular season, and a much stronger Mets' post-season rotation.

The Twins get:
Carlos Gomez, OF
22 years old
.232 batting average with Mets in '07
young 5-tool stud
could start for Twins either in '08 or '09

Phil Humber, SP
25 years old
Mets #1 draft pick in 2004
Tommy John surgery in 2005
spent 2007 in AAA
Could crack the Twins' 2008 rotation

Deolis Guerra, SP
18 years old
6'5" 200 lbs.
spent '07 in A ball
A couple of years away from the bigs

Kevin Mulvey, SP
22 years old
2006 2nd round pick
spent '07 in AA
Good control, plus fastball, slider

This is one of those trades that is probably good for both teams. However, I think the Mets did well, considering they were competing against the Yankees and Red Sox for Santana. They also apparently held onto their top prospect, 19-year old outfielder Fernando Martinez, whom the Twins wanted added to the deal. Nice job by the Mets, in my opinion, to secure the game's top pitcher.

As for the American Leaguers, it looks like the Red Sox also win by keeping Johan out of the Bronx. The Yankees still need to improve their rotation if they want to beat the 'Sox in 2008.

Pitchers and Catchers

It's almost time to start getting excited about the 2008 Major League Baseball Season. Here are the dates that pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report for your favorite team:

Feb. 13
Orioles
Cubs
Astros
Royals
Athletics
Phillies
Giants
Mariners

Feb. 14
Braves
Tigers
Angels
Dodgers
Yankees
Pirates
Cardinals
Padres
Devil Rays
Rangers

Feb. 15
Diamondbacks
RedSox
WhiteSox
Indians
Rockies
Mets
BlueJays

Feb. 16
Reds
Brewers
Nationals

Feb. 17
Marlins
Twins

Oh, and the A's and Red Sox get the 2008 season started on March 25th in Japan...

Swisher to White Sox for 3 Minor Leaguers

Nick Swisher was traded from my beloved A's to the Chisox today for three minor leaguers. The Athletics get blue-chip southpaw pitcher Gio Gonzalez, outfielder Ryan Sweeney, and righty pitcher Fautino De Los Santos. While the A's have really loaded up on young talent, next year looks like they could challenge for the worst record in the majors.

In Roto-land, the trade helps out Swisher owners (me included), as he will be going from a pitcher-friendly park to a hitter-friendly stadium. That could boost his production by 20%. After a down year in 2007, he could climb back up to the 30 HR, 100 RBI level. He is supposedly going to play Center Field, which I don't think will help him stay healthy.

Keep in mind that the A's will probably be looking at a lot of different players at the major league level next year, as they evaluate their young studs. You may not want to go to high on Sweeney, for instance, as he could end up back at AAA if he doesn't produce right away. Gio Gonzalez is a major coup for Billy Beane. Any time you can get a very promising lefty starter, I think you have to do it.