My AL-only roto league is having its draft this Friday and Saturday. I tend to be ultra-prepared for any fantasy draft, shunning fantasy sports magazines for my own projections and valuations. For instance, this year I have a spreadsheet with 2007 stats, 2008 projections and valuations, a minor league list, printouts by position, and position eligibilty charts. I am also running the draft, so I will be entering picks and tracking team rosters. It makes for a fun, crazy, tiring couple of days.
With two games (in Japan) already in the books, guys who have performed well so far will probably be bid up disproportionately. Rich Harden might go for $19 instead of $13. Jack Hannahan will be on every team's radar, based on his early dinger. Huston Street might be obtained at 70% of his normal salary based on one lousy appearance. I will try to be a smart owner and ignore the early Red Sox/A's results, and focus on traditional patterns, such as Harden's arm falling off, and Street's phenomenal ERA and WHIP numbers.
I go into this draft as the defending champion, and also carrying the lowest salary into the draft. I dropped every player from last year's team who I felt was not a huge bargain. I sacrificed guys like Jonny Gomes ($6), A.J. Pierszynski ($10) and Mariano Rivera ($36). In my experience, it's better to have lots of money going in than it is to have a full roster and no cash. I also feel that each open slot is an opportunity to find a bargain, and if you fill that slot with one of your keepers who is not a huge bargain, you are really limiting your options. For example, I let Justin Morneau drop, as his $37 salary could be used to pick up two good players --- maybe Kenji Johjima and Nick Swisher, both of whom are available.
Knowing which positions are lean in talent is a major key to any draft. It looks like there are 7 closers available in our draft, so I won't be going hog-wild spending money on George Sherill. I also see four shortstops valued at over $20, but only six outfielders. You can bet I will be taking a couple of the best outfielders, leaving only the scraps for the other owners. We can keep up to six minor leaguers as well, but I elected to keep only two, hoping to better my farm system in the draft.
I drafted the injured Francisco Liriano last year for $2, and I'm hoping he will pay nice dividends this year, joining a very cheap staff that includes Javier Vazquez ($7), Jarrod Washburn ($2) , Gil Meche ($3) and Shaun Marcum ($6). Other than Meche, I'm not banking on any of those guys repeating their '07 performances, so I will be looking to make some early deals. I also have no returning closer, since Rivera didn't make the cut, so I am going to have to probably pay $25 - $30 for a decent closer, and possibly add a lower-tier guy such as Sherrill or Todd Jones. I punted saves last year with one of my teams when Chris Ray went down, and we finished 8th.
Roto drafts in salary leagues are never boring because if one player gets bid up too high, or ends up going for a baragin, it affects the rest of the draft. On the first day of the '07 draft, our league spent a lot of money for the superstars. That didn't leave much money for the average players, and some good talent ended up being acquired at ridiculous bargain prices. I don't think the same thing will happen this year, but it pays to be flexible. If guys start jumping off the board at higher than expected prices, don't panic. It just means that you will probably get Hank Blalock for $11 later on. You don't want to have more than $5 left at the end of the draft, but you don't want to spend all of your money either, and not be able to grab those $3 bargains at the end.
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