DAVIDs AND GOLIATHs (Part 2)

The Toronto Blue Jays

Of the three Davids, Toronto most resembles a Goliath. They have more talent than the Devil Rays and Orioles, and consistently spend more money than either club. Their biggest problem is that they play in a division with two elite teams. In 2005, they scored 70 more runs than their opponents, which would normally get them within striking distance of a playoff spot. Yet, the Jays finished 80-82, only winning six of 18 games against the Yankees. When it became apparent that Toronto needed to do more to compete, they went out and signed young hurler A.J. Burnett and slugging third baseman Troy Glaus. In 2006, they finished 87-75, still not good enough to make the playoffs. Last year, they posted another winning record, but were shut out of the playoff picture once again.

2007 AL Ranks: ERA 2nd, OBP 12th, SLG 8th

The current roster boasts a former Cy-Young award winner (Roy Halladay), who is part of a good, fairly young rotation. The bullpen is not great, but its shortcomings can be overcome by good starting pitching and productive offense. The Blue Jays’ hitting leaves something to be desired, especially the ability to get on base. The injury to Troy Glaus last year severely hampered the power number of this offense. They have replaced Glaus with former Cardinals’ third-sacker Scott Rolen, who is already on the DL. The Jays don’t have much speed, but brought in shortstop David Eckstein to swipe a few bases.

Starting Rotation: The Blue Jays have a very good nucleus of starting pitching. Roy Halladay is a consistent performer who keeps his ERA around 3.60. Aside from missing time in 2004 and 2005 due to injuries, he is a durable ace. Burnett is a viable second starter (career ERA 3.79) when he’s healthy, but he has pitched 200 innings in a season only twice. His injury-plagued career makes it necessary for Toronto to keep another decent starter in the fold. Both Halladay and Burnett are 30 years old, so the window of opportunity with these players will probably close in the next three to four years. 26 year old Dustin McGowan turned in a 4.08 ERA in his first full season, throwing 170 innings last year. Shaun Marcum posted a 4.13 mark in 159 innings, and Jesse Litsch tossed 111 quality innings last year, adding a 3.81 ERA to the mix. That’s really an outstanding rotation from top to bottom that should continue to improve. One area of weakness is that the rotation contains no left-handers. It’s not a major concern, as long as they are succeeding, but opponents can stack their lineups with left-handed hitters to take advantage of all the righties.

Bullpen: The Toronto bullpen was in pretty good shape a couple of years ago, but injuries to closer B.J. Ryan and general ineffectiveness have plagued the pen as a whole. Casey Janssen impressed last year, but is due to miss the 2008 season with a bum arm. Jeremy Accardo is sharing closing duties until Ryan gets back into form, but he is really better suited for setup work. Guys like Scott Downs, Brian Wolfe, Brian Tallet and Jason Frasor provide good stability. It’s a fairly young bullpen, with only one player (Downs) over age 30, so these players should be contributing to the Jays’ success for a few more years. Getting a healthy and effective Ryan back will be the key, as everyone else will be able to slide into more familiar roles.

Lineup: (Note - This article was written before the Jays dumped Frank Thomas, and he was rightly snatched up by the Oakland A's)
Here’s where the fun begins. The Blue Jays must decide what direction to take with their offense because this group doesn’t do anything particularly well. Frank Thomas embodies the type of player that the Jays should target, but he’s 40 years old. Toronto can’t compete with the Yankees or Red Sox on this front, and will have to hope the young players like Alex Rios and Aaron Hill continue to improve, or they’ll have to look elsewhere. Let’s examine the current lineup:

Player Proj. OB% Proj. SLG %
Eckstein .360 .370
Stewart .345 .395
Rios .360 .505
Wells .330 .470
Thomas .360 .460
Hill .340 .470
Overbay .350 .450
Rolen .350 .440
Zaun .340 .400

Last year’s On Base Percentage was .327, which ranked 12th in the AL. This year’s group could push .340, provided that Wells, Overbay and Rolen bounce back from bad years. The Big Hurt also needs to keep his production up, as well as Shannon Stewart. For a catcher, Zaun provides a good OBP. Hill and Rios do not draw a lot of walks, so the only way they will probably raise their On Base Percentage is by getting more hits. If the team can get on base at a .340 clip, that would put them in the middle of the pack in the American League.

Of equal concern is Toronto’s Slugging Percentage (.419), which ranked 8th last year. Again, if the big bats produce (that’s a big IF), they could finish around .430, which might place them 5th or so. Also, on the bench is Matt Stairs, who can provide some pop against right-handers.

I see this group falling a bit short, due to age and injuries. They really need to relegate the Stewart/Stairs duo to the bench, and find a permanent solution that provides more consistent offense. Down on the farm is outfielder Travis Snider, who might be a year away. Adam Lind might be an option, but he struggled in 2007. Other than that, the Jays will have to look outside the organization for help. Adam Dunn (career .381 OBP, .517 SLG) could be acquired in a trade if Toronto would part with a young pitcher or two. Dunn’s been pretty consistent throughout his career, and could DH or play first. Also available is free agent Kenny Lofton, who would be an upgrade at the leadoff spot and in the outfield. By adding these two guys, and taking out Stewart/Stairs and Overbay, the required batting numbers are taking shape.

This team is pretty close to being a contender. With a revamping of the batting order, they could conceivably challenge for a playoff spot in the next year or two.

Edit: With the departure of Thomas, I see the need for at least two new offensive starters to raise the OBP and SLG. That's hard to accomplish in one season. To me, this offense looks like it will be high on batting average, but low on the other stats that correlate well to winning.