2008 MLB Player Valuation

I am, by trade, a numbers guy. I love working with spreadsheets and devising complex formulas to determine value and expose weakness. Because of this, I never go into a fantasy draft just "flying by the seat of my pants". I always have a system that values players numerically, whether it makes total sense or not.

For 2008, I have devised a formula that I will use for my AL draft this year. It takes 2008 MLB Player projections, and quantifies them into a dollar amount to fit our league structure. It's not rocket science, but the formula can get a little long. The formula is based on a salary cap of $300, and a roster of 14 hitters and 9 pitchers.
If your cap is different, simply multiply the results by whatever ratio works, i.e. 500/300. It also only projects for the main 10 stat categories: HR, RBI, RUNS, SB, and AVG; WINS, SAVES, STRIKEOUTS, WHIP(ratio), and ERA.

Ok, here's the AL batting formula:

+((HR-13)/3+4+(RBI-65)/8+8+(RUNS-70)/9+8+(SB-8)/2+4)*0.5+((HITS/AB)-0.27)*AB/3

And here's the AL pitching formula:

+((WINS-8)/2+4)+((SAVES-6)/2+2)+((K's-80)/15+5)+((4.3-(EarnedRuns*9/IP))*IP/40)+((1.4-((Hits+Walks)/IP))*IP/12)

Whew!

This should give values based on 2007 performance as follows:

Alex Rodriguez $41
Jose Guillen $20
Curtis Granderson $28
Johnny Damon $18

CC Sabathia $34
Johan Santana $33
J.J. Putz $37
Shaun Marcum $16

The formula does yield some negative values. For instance, based on his 14+ ERA, Chad Orvella gets a $-4 value. These are guys that you did not want on your team last year, as they would only hurt you.

Try out the formulas if you can. It's easiest to use a spreadsheet program, like Excel. I adjust the NL formulas slightly to compensate for the weaker offensive stats, and better pitching stats. You can obtain 2008 player projections from a site like http://www.rotowire.com/ if you don't want to do the projections yourself.

Good luck in 2008!