The 2008 Draft

My AL-only roto league is having its draft this Friday and Saturday. I tend to be ultra-prepared for any fantasy draft, shunning fantasy sports magazines for my own projections and valuations. For instance, this year I have a spreadsheet with 2007 stats, 2008 projections and valuations, a minor league list, printouts by position, and position eligibilty charts. I am also running the draft, so I will be entering picks and tracking team rosters. It makes for a fun, crazy, tiring couple of days.

With two games (in Japan) already in the books, guys who have performed well so far will probably be bid up disproportionately. Rich Harden might go for $19 instead of $13. Jack Hannahan will be on every team's radar, based on his early dinger. Huston Street might be obtained at 70% of his normal salary based on one lousy appearance. I will try to be a smart owner and ignore the early Red Sox/A's results, and focus on traditional patterns, such as Harden's arm falling off, and Street's phenomenal ERA and WHIP numbers.

I go into this draft as the defending champion, and also carrying the lowest salary into the draft. I dropped every player from last year's team who I felt was not a huge bargain. I sacrificed guys like Jonny Gomes ($6), A.J. Pierszynski ($10) and Mariano Rivera ($36). In my experience, it's better to have lots of money going in than it is to have a full roster and no cash. I also feel that each open slot is an opportunity to find a bargain, and if you fill that slot with one of your keepers who is not a huge bargain, you are really limiting your options. For example, I let Justin Morneau drop, as his $37 salary could be used to pick up two good players --- maybe Kenji Johjima and Nick Swisher, both of whom are available.

Knowing which positions are lean in talent is a major key to any draft. It looks like there are 7 closers available in our draft, so I won't be going hog-wild spending money on George Sherill. I also see four shortstops valued at over $20, but only six outfielders. You can bet I will be taking a couple of the best outfielders, leaving only the scraps for the other owners. We can keep up to six minor leaguers as well, but I elected to keep only two, hoping to better my farm system in the draft.

I drafted the injured Francisco Liriano last year for $2, and I'm hoping he will pay nice dividends this year, joining a very cheap staff that includes Javier Vazquez ($7), Jarrod Washburn ($2) , Gil Meche ($3) and Shaun Marcum ($6). Other than Meche, I'm not banking on any of those guys repeating their '07 performances, so I will be looking to make some early deals. I also have no returning closer, since Rivera didn't make the cut, so I am going to have to probably pay $25 - $30 for a decent closer, and possibly add a lower-tier guy such as Sherrill or Todd Jones. I punted saves last year with one of my teams when Chris Ray went down, and we finished 8th.

Roto drafts in salary leagues are never boring because if one player gets bid up too high, or ends up going for a baragin, it affects the rest of the draft. On the first day of the '07 draft, our league spent a lot of money for the superstars. That didn't leave much money for the average players, and some good talent ended up being acquired at ridiculous bargain prices. I don't think the same thing will happen this year, but it pays to be flexible. If guys start jumping off the board at higher than expected prices, don't panic. It just means that you will probably get Hank Blalock for $11 later on. You don't want to have more than $5 left at the end of the draft, but you don't want to spend all of your money either, and not be able to grab those $3 bargains at the end.

2008 American League Predictions

With one game already in the books, here are my 2008 American League predictions:

AL EAST
RED SOX 92-70
YANKEES 89-73
BLUE JAYS 84-78
ORIOLES 77-85
D' RAYS 70-92

AL CENTRAL
INDIANS 94-68
TIGERS 93-69 (wild card)
WHITE SOX 87-75
TWINS 78-84
ROYALS 69-93

AL WEST
ANGELS 89-73
MARINERS 84-78
RANGERS 71-97
A'S 64-98

SYNOPSIS: It looks to me like there won't be any runaway teams this year, with no one poised to crack 95 wins. I think the Indians have the best bullpen in the AL, with the Red Sox a close second. The bullpen has become more important in the last 5 years or so, even possibly more so than the rotation.

I have seen some people picking Tampa Bay to finish in the top 3 in the East, but beyond the top of their rotation, they still don't have enough to compete. Don't write off the Blue Jays this year. With a couple of (good) breaks, they could win a division that the Yankees and 'Sox have dominated for years.

I love the makeup of the Indians this year, but the Tiger offense will give them a run for their money. I still believe that pitching is more important than offense when it come to winning games, and thus, the Tigers will settle for the wild card. My surprise pick is Chicago to win 87 games. They won't make the playoffs, as the two teams ahead of them are too good, but they are better than most of the other teams in the AL.

The Halos will cruise to the West title, but they have some pitching questions and a light-hitting lineup that won't produce a ton of runs. I don't think the Mariners will produce as much offense as last year. Expect the A's to be downright horrible, with no offense and a weaker pitching staff than in years past.

Pre-Season Player Notes

Here are a few of my thoughts heading into the 2008 MLB season:

Closers - In Baltimore, George Sherrill has been named the closer. While his stats last year were impressive (0.99 WHIP), he only pitched 45 innings. He does not seem to have the closer's mentality that makes guys like Joe Borowski so effective at shutting the door. I could be wrong, but I think Sherrill will struggle in his new role. I've always wanted to see what Jamie Walker could do as a full-time closer. Also, look for Greg Aquino to be a darkhorse in the Orioles' pen this year. As an alternative, if you already have a proven closer, think about picking up Jeremy Accardo as a guy who would get some saves in Toronto if B.J. Ryan goes down.

Devil Rays - While I love what Tampa has done with the top of their rotation (Kazmir, Garza, Shields), the 4 and 5 spots look like a disaster waiting to happen. This team is still at least a couple of years away from contending, and I don't see many wins coming out of those two rotation spots. The bullpen doesn't look any better than it did a year ago, Troy Percival not withstanding. Once you get past the top hitters, the bench is looking very thin, and Baldelli and Floyd are injury-prone, so guys like Eric Hinske will play a lot. If they can stockpile some more talented arms, including some for the 'pen, they will eventually crack the .500 mark. But not this year.
Same thing with the Royals...they have some nice arms at the top of the rotation, but the bullpen looks baaaaad again, and there's not really much offense on the bench. I'd like to see Justin Huber get a nice look this year, as not many of the other bench guys have much potential.

Detroit - The Tigers' lineup is monstrous this year. Someone like Jacque Jones can really benefit from having all those studs around them. You might want to raise his value up just a notch or two, as opposing pitchers will definitely be giving him some pitches to hit. The bullpen is no better than it was a year ago, and I think that Detroit should have addressed this issue rather than giving up all those prospects for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. The 'pen has become arguably the most important facet of a winning team, and was a big reason why the Tigers didn't repeat their playoff appearance from 2006. Thus, the Indians still look like the team to beat in the AL Central.

The M's Offense - Remember last year, when the Mariners were getting all of those clutch hits? Then, around August, the offense seemed to go into shutdown mode. What will this year's offense look like? I would definitely count on less runs scored, and lesser seasons from Vidro and Betancourt. Jose Lopez should return to form, and Brad Wilkerson remains somewhat of a mystery. This was kind of a patchwork group that really performed last year. Don't bank on it happening again in 2008.

Frankie Francisco - Keep an eye on this Ranger pitcher. A couple of years ago, he became semi-famous for throwing a chair at a heckler, and hitting the man's wife instead. Then, he got hurt and missed all of 2005 and most of '06. His numbers last year weren't what they were in '04, but the guy throws 97 MPH and there is not a sure-fire closer in the Texas bullpen. I'm not saying you should spend $15 for him on draft day. Just don't forget about him.

2008 MLB Player Projections

After scouring the web for some good 2008 player projections, I kept coming across sites that wanted me to pay for their "draft kit". However, I finally stumbled across the following site, which has some pretty darn good projection numbers:
http://www.fantasysportscentral.com/baseball/managerrank.asp?w=5

Ignore their valuations if it doesn't fit your league's system.

--- ENJOY ---

2008 MLB Player Valuation

I am, by trade, a numbers guy. I love working with spreadsheets and devising complex formulas to determine value and expose weakness. Because of this, I never go into a fantasy draft just "flying by the seat of my pants". I always have a system that values players numerically, whether it makes total sense or not.

For 2008, I have devised a formula that I will use for my AL draft this year. It takes 2008 MLB Player projections, and quantifies them into a dollar amount to fit our league structure. It's not rocket science, but the formula can get a little long. The formula is based on a salary cap of $300, and a roster of 14 hitters and 9 pitchers.
If your cap is different, simply multiply the results by whatever ratio works, i.e. 500/300. It also only projects for the main 10 stat categories: HR, RBI, RUNS, SB, and AVG; WINS, SAVES, STRIKEOUTS, WHIP(ratio), and ERA.

Ok, here's the AL batting formula:

+((HR-13)/3+4+(RBI-65)/8+8+(RUNS-70)/9+8+(SB-8)/2+4)*0.5+((HITS/AB)-0.27)*AB/3

And here's the AL pitching formula:

+((WINS-8)/2+4)+((SAVES-6)/2+2)+((K's-80)/15+5)+((4.3-(EarnedRuns*9/IP))*IP/40)+((1.4-((Hits+Walks)/IP))*IP/12)

Whew!

This should give values based on 2007 performance as follows:

Alex Rodriguez $41
Jose Guillen $20
Curtis Granderson $28
Johnny Damon $18

CC Sabathia $34
Johan Santana $33
J.J. Putz $37
Shaun Marcum $16

The formula does yield some negative values. For instance, based on his 14+ ERA, Chad Orvella gets a $-4 value. These are guys that you did not want on your team last year, as they would only hurt you.

Try out the formulas if you can. It's easiest to use a spreadsheet program, like Excel. I adjust the NL formulas slightly to compensate for the weaker offensive stats, and better pitching stats. You can obtain 2008 player projections from a site like http://www.rotowire.com/ if you don't want to do the projections yourself.

Good luck in 2008!