Josh Hancock, 1978 - 2007

Cardinals relief pitcher Josh Hancock died early Sunday morning in a car accident. He was 29 years old. I don't want to say too much to add to an already sad situation. However, when something like this happens, we realize how many lives each of us touches everyday. We never know when our time will come, so be sure to make the most of it!

Alyssa Milano Knows More Than You

In the category of "What is this World Coming to?", universal hottie Alyssa Milano now has her own baseball blog.

The former girlfriend of Carl Pavano, Barry Zito, Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, Tom Glavine, (insert random major-leaguer here) says she is a longtime Dodger fan, and gives her thoughts on everything from fantasy baseball to clothes to nachos.

Early-Season Trends To Watch

The 2007 season is only 3 weeks old, but there are some interesting players and teams to watch as we head into May...



Cincinnati Reds Pitching
So far in '07, the Reds staff has the best K/BB ratio in the majors (3.04). They have given up a lot of hits, but the team WHIP of 1.27 is still very respectable. In 2006, the K/BB ratio was only 2.27, and the WHIP was 1.41, giving the staff a 4.51 ERA. If the Cincy staff continues to pitch this well, expect lower-scoring games, which could put a damper on the offensive stats. (The Reds are only hitting .234 as a team so far this year.)

Oakland A's Offensive Woes
Yesterday, Oakland started the following lineup:

Stewart (.229 BA)
Ellis (.230)
Chavez (.271)
Piazza (.250)
Crosby (.227)
D. Johnson (.000 - just called up)
Buck (.234)
Kendall (.187)
Putnam (.125)

The A's brought Kielty (.143) and Scutaro (.103) off the bench. Not surprisingly, they did not score a run against Jarrod Washburn and managed only three hits. The team batting average is .229 and the slugging percentage is .339 (both are last in the majors). Last year, the A's slugged .412, which was still near the bottom of the league, but was enough to win the AL West. This year, Oakland will have to bring those numbers up quite a bit if they are to contend.

Colorado Rockies Power Numbers
So, the Rockies have a pretty young team, but 8 Home Runs in 22 games is not encouraging. The main supply of Home Runs for this team will come from the Three-H Club: Helton, Holliday and Hawpe. If those guys get injured or slump for any extended period of time, the team power numbers will certainly stay near the bottom of the league.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays Thunder & Lightning
In case you haven't noticed, no major league team has the power and speed attack of the D-Rays. Tied for second in the majors in Home Runs and Stolen Bases, Tampa is unveiling a youth movement that is making Yankees fans take notice. The staff ERA is 6.08, so it may be a couple of years before this team is competitive.

Tradewinds

If you are the owner of a fantasy baseball team in an AL-only or NL-only league, chances are you've been hit hard when one of your players gets traded to the other league. In most cases, you'll receive no compensation in return, and you end up filling Bobby Abreu's spot with Willie Bloomquist.

It pays well to know what deals are coming down the road. You can get full value for a player if you trade them to another team in April or May, but you won't get much in return for a player who everybody knows is heading to the other league. That's why it's important to scan the field, and make your move sooner rather than later.

Here are some interesting trade possibilities which could come to light in the next couple of months:

Miguel Cabrera, Marlins
The Florida third-sacker set a new arbitration record in the off-season, causing his salary to jump from $472,000 to $7 million. If the Marlins don't believe that they will contend for another title in the next couple of years, they might deal Cabrera (signed through 2009) for prospects. It will probably take three really good prospects to pry Cabrera away from the fish, so teams like the Yankees, Cardinals and Orioles, who don't have the minor league talent, are probably out of the running. The Angels, Indians and Rockies are teams who have a good amount of talent on the farm, and might be willing to fork out some major bucks for one of the game's most talented players. The Angels especially have a glut of young, middle infield talent with the likes of Howie Kendrick, Maicer Izturis, Brandon Wood, Erick Aybar and Sean Rodriguez. They probably wouldn't move Kendrick or Wood, but the other guys should be expendable.

Rich Harden, Athletics
The A's have one of the sorriest offenses in recent memory. If they find the Angels running away with the division in June, they might lean toward trading the talented, but oft-injured Harden. It was rumored that the A's would have traded him to the Mets in the offseason for Lastings Milledge, Phil Humber, and Aaron Heilman, but that seems like an awful lot for the Mets to give up. First, Harden will need to prove he can stay healthy, and pitch at a high level for at least a short period of time. Maybe the Cubs will want him as an appropriate replacement for Mark Prior.

Adam Dunn, Reds
At $13 million for 2008, Cincinnati might cut ties with their slugger if they fall behind in the NL Central race. There are a lot of teams who could use Dunn, but only a few who would be willing to pay his salary beyond 2007. Look to the top-tier teams in each division for a possible destination.

Bobby Abreu, Yankees
If the Bombers' pitching doesn't come around soon, they will be making decisions that don't involve winning in '07. Abreu is set to make $16 million in 2008 if the Yanks pick up his option.

Torii Hunter, Twins
Having stated that he is almost positive he will not be back with the Twins next year, Hunter is already scoping out new places to call home. Again, it will probably be the big market teams that will be able to pry Hunter away in a trade. Atlanta may lose Andruw Jones after this year, and might be willing to lock up Hunter with a three or four year deal at a lesser price.

Article Accepted!

Write On Sports has picked up my article on Division Inequality in Baseball. I hope to have more sports-related writings picked up in the near future.

A Closer Look - Tigers vs. Angels

One thing that really gets my goat is when managers misuse their bullpens, especially their closers. Yesterday, as I was following the Angels-Tigers game on the web, I was reminded of this, and how I would manage a closer.

With the Tigers storming back from a 7-0 deficit, the Angels were in a tough spot. The score was 7-5 (Angels leading) in the 8th inning. Scot Shields had pitched 1.1 innings, and recorded 2 outs in the eighth after the first two batters reached base. Halos skipper Mike Scioscia went to his dominating closer, Frankie Rodriguez. K-Rod walked the first two hitters he faced, forcing in a run. He retired Curtis Granderson on a groundout to escape any further damage, but the Tigers had crept to within a run entering the ninth.

The Angels went out 1-2-3 in the bottom of the eighth, and still led 7-6 entering the top of the ninth inning. Of course, K-Rod came back out for the ninth, as was Scioscia's plan. Rodriguez struck out Marcus Thames, then the slumping Gary Sheffield doubled to deep center, and stole third base to boot. Next, Magglio Ordonez hit a monster shot to left that gave the Tigers the lead, 8-7. K-Rod got the next two outs, but the damage had been done. The Angels' closer used FORTY pitches to get 4 outs.

Of course, the Angels came back to win 9-8 in 10 innings. My point is that Scioscia should have gone to someone other than K-Rod in the eighth. In fact, I never like it when managers do funky things with their closers. When a game enters the later innings, the pressure starts mounting, and effective performance becomes more mental than physical. When you start taking guys out of their routines, you are messing with their ability to focus entirely on the task at hand. For a closer, he should only be thinking about getting 3 outs. Anything other than that breaks the routine.

I realize that K-Rod was brought in to get out of a nasty situation. I also realize that some will say that the biggest out in this game was the one in the eighth inning, as opposed to what may or may not have taken place in the ninth. I disagree. By using their closer in the eighth, The Angels gambled that K-Rod would get a quick out, and be able to effectively pitch the ninth. He didn't (in either case), messed up the save, and is probably out for today's game because of yesterday's high pitch count.

What would I have done? LA brought in Dustin Moseley to finish the 10th inning. I would have used him in the 8th, and saved K-Rod for the ninth. Scioscia had used Bootcheck and Carrasco for three innings each the day before, so those two were not available. By using Moseley, he would have kept K-Rod on his normal routine of closing out the ninth (assuming Moseley got out of the eighth). Today, the Angels' bullpen will be out of whack for a third straight day if Rodriguez is not available. And that's what gets my goat.

Roto Blues

Here's a very pathetic attempt to deal with my fantasy teams' early season struggles...

Last night I couldn't sleep a wink
I tossed and turned and started to think
About my Roto team's utter disgrace
It's only April, but we're in last place

I drafted for offense, but we can't hit
Teixiera and Sheffield are swingin' like #@!*
My pitching's worse, I can't get a win
I'd drop all those losers but my bench is too thin

I've got the Roto...Roto Blues

Mister Rivera has me thinking hard
He went for the save, Scutaro left the yard
I need a new closer, but the good ones are gone
Nathan and Ray and Papelbon

I couldn't sleep, so I turned on the TV
Someone named Joel was babbling at me
About the good life and prosperity
Forget all that crap, I need me a ribbee

I've got the Roto...oooh ooh ooh

Today's a new day, or so it seems
I've got great hopes for all of my teams
But Kendrick's injured and so is Glaus
Get me away from the TV and out of the house

Borowski, who taught you to pitch
You just need one out, you sunnuva #@!*'
I need a vacation from this daily grind
My squad is a hundred and five points behind

Yeah, them's the Roto...Roto Bluuuuuuuuues!

The Best Minor Leaguers You've Never Heard of (Pt. 2)

Here is part two of The Best Minor Leaguers You've Never Heard Of:

Carlos Carrasco PHI P
RotoJournal Score: 94.4
Age 19

2006 Low-A 12-6, 2.26 ERA, 159 IP, 159/65 K/BB

Signed out of the Dominican Republic two years ago, Carrasco is one of a handful of promising Phillies prospects. After a disappointing 2005, the long righty really stepped up last year, averaging a strikeout per inning.


Lorenzo Cain MIL OF
RotoJournal Score: 82.1
Age 20

2006 Low-A .307 BA, 527 AB, 6 HR, 60 RBI, 34 SB, .809 OPS

Cain can really motor, as evidenced by his stolen base numbers and his 6.45 time in the 60-yard dash. He also has decent power for a speedster, sporting a good OPS last year. Monitor his progress with the bat as he moves up in 2007.

Kala Kaaihue ATL 1B
RotoJournal Score: 66.5
Age 21

2006 Hi-A .223 BA, 188 AB, 13 HR, 31 RBI, .816 OPS
2006 Low-A .329 BA, 228 AB, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 1.072 OPS

Previously in the Red Sox system, the 6'2" 230 lb Hawaiian has drawn comparisons to former Braves first-sacker Andres Galarraga. He displayed great power in Single-A last year, and had a good K/BB ratio for most of the year.

Erik Lis MIN 1B
RotoJournal Score: 66.0
Age 22

2006 Low-A .326 BA, 411 AB, 16 HR, 70 RBI, .950 OPS

Lis crushed evrything he saw in 2006. A lefty, he may be somewhat blocked by the presence of Twins slugger Brock Peterson, who could be moved over to 3B.

Matt Gamel MIL 3B
RotoJournal Score: 60.4
Age 21

2006 Low-A .288 BA, 493 AB, 17 HR, 88 RBI, .827 OPS

Selected in Round Four of the 2005 draft, Gamel really upped his power numbers in '06. Gamel has a short, quick lefthanded swing and is considered a solid defender at third base with good enough hands and arm strength for the position.

Early Season Trade Targets - Hitters

Part of successfully managing your fantasy baseball squad is knowing when a slumping superstar is about to break out, and being able to acquire such talent.

Here is a short list of April disappointments that you may want to consider trading for (season stats are through April 20, 2007):

A. Laroche PIT 1B .100 AVG
The Pirates acquired Laroche in the offseason from the Braves. He put up monster numbers in the second half last year, after he started taking medication for a medical condition that ended up helping his eyesight. You might be able to snatch him up for very little in return.

G. Sheffield DET 1B/OF .125
Sheff may finally be getting old, which is why you have a chance to add him to your squad for a young prospect or two. He has been one of the most consistent power hitters in the last decade. Just realize that the Yanks may have let him go for a reason.

S. Casey DET 1B .170
Another Tiger who has started out cold, Casey is a reliable hitter for average who should warm up soon.

A. Pujols STL 1B .197
Ok, you probably won't be able to get the perennial MVP-candidate for cheap, but if you are going to trade for him, now is the right time.

B. Roberts BAL 2B .212
After signing a big contract before the 2007 season, Roberts has failed to impress so far. There's no way the O's will give up easily on him, so he should be good for 30+ steals regardless of what he hits.

M. Young TEX SS .185
In your league, maybe Young's owner is a little worried that the hitting machine is starting to age a little bit. All the more reason for you to grab him. Young should hit over .300 this year, possibly even by the end of May.

W. Betemit LAD 3B/SS .132
I watched this guy on TV a lot when he was with the Braves, and he is a superior hitter for an infielder. He has developing power, and a good eye at the plate. Despite his low batting average so far, his walk-to-strikeout ratio is a very respectable 9/11. Betemit can probably be acquired for very cheap right now.

A. Gordon KC 3B .137
Everyone's prospect of the year, the next George Brett has struggled mightily at the plate and in the field. If you are EVER going to trade for him, now is the time.He may end up getting sent down to AAA if he doesn't start hitting soon, but he won't stay there for long.

E. Encarnacion CIN 3B .154
A very solid, unsung, young player...Double-E should put up his usual numbers by season's end.

A. Jones ATL OF .179
The Braves' center fielder has had terrible starts before. In fact, he has had terrible seasons before. You only want to pay top dollar for Jones if he's going to hit for average as well as power. That means wait until he starts to show signs of coming out of his funk before you make the big offer for him.

M. Ramirez BOS OF .189
The annual slow start to Manny's season will prompt 'Sox trade rumors, but come August, Manny will still be in Beantown. He is one of the most prolific hitters of all time, and still in his prime. Man-Ram hit his first dinger a couple of nights ago, so get ready for that bat to heat up.

Playing for Next Year

If you've played rotisserie-league baseball for more than a couple of years, you've probably finished out of the money at least once or twice. Unless you are a lucky owner in a league full of chumps, you've had to endure a season where you had Kerry Wood, John Smoltz, Derek Lee and Todd Helton all end up with extended stays on the DL. In such situations, there is often no way to turn your team around. You simply have to face up to a lower-division finish. Hey, it happens in the major leagues as well as fantasy baseball.

The trick is knowing when to cut bait on a losing team to maximize your chances of winning in the coming years. For inspiration, let's look at a couple of MLB teams who have either sprung up from the depths of futility, or have remained stuck in "loser" mode.

Detroit Tigers
Year............Record.............Payroll
2007............??????..............$95 million
2006............95-67...............$82 million
2005............71-91................$69 million
2004............72-90...............$46 million
2003............43-119..............$49 million
2002............55-106..............$55 million
2001.............66-96...............$49 million

When the Tigers won the ALCS in 2006, it had been nearly 20 years since the organization had been to the postseason. Detroit hit rock bottom in 2003, winning only 43 games (a .265 winning percentage), one of the worst seasons in the history of Major League Baseball. That season, the Tigers' payroll ranked 24th out of 30 Major League teams. The next season, Detroit won 72 games, an amazing increase of 29 games over the previous year. Only AFTER they experienced success with their younger, inexpensive players did they begin to substantially increase the team payroll in 2005.

When team ownership saw that they needed a few more stars to contend, they added veteran pitcher Kenny Rogers, closer Todd Jones and infielder Placido Polanco, all at multi-million dollar salaries. Of course, the 2006 season was a smashing success, but despite the high payroll, the team's foundation is still its youth. That young, inexpensive nucleus should make the Tigers competitive for years to come.

An important part of the Tigers' success has been player evaluation. In the same way, a fantasy team owner needs to assess which players will help the team in the coming years at minimal cost. Players such as Jeremy Bonderman, Mike Maroth, Brandon Inge, Craig Monroe and Jamie Walker all made huge contributions in 2006 at very affordable salaries (under $3 million apiece). Those players had all been around for a couple of seasons, and the team decided they were worth keeping. Combining these guys with the outstanding core of young players and adding in a few well-chosen veterans at the right time has been the Tigers' recipe for success.

Baltimore Orioles
Year............Record.............Payroll
2007............??????..............$93 million
2006............70-92...............$72 million
2005............74-88...............$73 million
2004............78-84...............$51 million
2003............71-91...............$73 million
2002............67-95...............$60 million
2001............63-98...............$74 million

If you want to have a fantasy team stuck in mediocrity for years, emulate the Orioles. They haven't had a winning team in years, yet team payroll is consistently in the top half of the league. They annually add players for huge sums who are at or near the end of their careers, yet don't have the strong nucleus of young players or the roster of talented veterans to support those mid-level acquisitions.

Here's a list of recent seasons, and some of the high-salaried players who didn't live up to their billing:

2003
Albert Belle........$13 million
Scott Erickson....$7 million

2004
Omar Daal..........$4.5 million
David Segui.........$7 million

2005
Sammy Sosa........$17 million
Sidney Ponson....$8.5 million

2006
Kris Benson.........$8 million
Javy Lopez..........$9 million
Bruce Chen & Rodrigo Lopez.....$4 million each

This year, it's more of the same. The names change, but the result will be similar to past years...

2007
Danys Baez..........$6 million
Kris Benson.........$7 million
Jaret Wright........$7 million

Perhaps Orioles management will get the hint after 2007. They have a developing core of young players, such as Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera and Corey Patterson, but they lack the superstar talent to justify spending over $90 million. They consistently bring in players like Kevin Millar, Jay Payton, Steve Trachsel and Aubrey Huff, all of whom will probably be out of baseball in three years.

This is an organization with no direction. They seemingly can't bring themselves to admit that there's not enough talent to win, and scrap the whole thing and start over. Don't do this with your fantasy team. If you aren't going to win this year, be the first to start dealing your overpriced players to contending teams. You will get the best deals in return. Load up that roster with promising, young players and head into next year's draft looking to pick up a couple of superstars with an eye on contending in the next year or two.

All the Wrong Moves

This offseason, the Seattle Mariners made a couple of moves that defied logic. They dealt the talented, but often injured, Rafael Soriano to Atlanta for the incredibly horrific Horacio Ramirez. They also dished out the big payola ($8.3 Million smackers) for one Jeff Weaver, who despite his playoff success in 2006, had an ERA of 6+ for the Angels and 5+ for the Cards.

These are just the latest in a long history of bizarre decisions by the M's front office. They could have had one of the best teams in baseball for years. Instead, they have guaranteed themselves another lower-division finish for 2007. Let's look at some of the transactions, and maybe we will learn how not to run a franchise.

2007
Signed Jeff Weaver for $8.3 million...He is worse than some of the minor leaguers Seattle could have called up, including Ryan Feierabend...So far, has given up 7 runs in 2 innings...if he was so good, St. Louis would have resigned him.

Signed Arthur Rhodes for $1 million...His ERA in 2006 was 5.32 and he's 37 years old...the A's snatch up Embree, the Angels get Speier, and the M's fall farther behind in the arms race.

Traded Rafael Soriano for Horacio Ramirez...Soriano was 1-2 last season for the Mariners with a 2.25 ERA in 53 games with 65 strikeouts in 60 innings....Horacio had a 4.48 ERA with a whopping 37 K's (and 31 walks) in 76 innings...Soriano makes less than half of what Ramirez does in 2007...Soriano has not given up a run in 5 appearances so far this year, while Ramirez' only start was snowed out (he was losing).

Traded Chris Snelling and Emiliano Fruto for Jose Vidro...Snelling has impressive power and speed...perhaps just needs another year to develop...Fruto is only 22, and has a great fastball...Vidro is just an awful choice to be a starting DH...7 HR and 47 RBI last year in 463 AB...nice.

2006
Traded Matt Thornton for Joe Borchard...Thornton had a nifty 3.33 ERA for the White Sox in '06, while the M's were busy figuring out that Borchard was expendable...less than 2 months after the trade, Seattle put Borchard on waivers and he was claimed by the Marlins.

Traded Shin-Soo Choo and Shawn Nottingham for Ben Broussard...It remains to be seen how Choo and Nottingham turn out, but Broussard is already a bust in Seattle... He hit .238 with the Mariners in '06, and has 2 AB so far in '07...He has been bumped out of his starting DH role by the deteriorating Jose Vidro...Choo hit .295 with the Indians in '06 after the trade, and has an intriguing power/speed combo. The fact that the Tribe also got Nottingham makes this a baaaaaad deal for the M's.

Not getting anything for Gil Meche...The sometimes talented, yet inconsistent pitcher landed with the Royals this offseason for over $10 million per year. The Mariners, of course, got nothing in return. A little foresight would have led to the M's trading him last year and probably getting at least a couple of prospects, if not a starting position player.

2005
Traded Miguel Olivo for Miguel Ojeda and Nathanael Mateo...When Olivo left the Mariners, he proceeded to hit over .300 for the Padres in '05, then hit .263 with 16 dingers for the Marlins in 2006. The M's put Ojeda on waivers three months after the trade, and Mateo is now 26 years old, and hardly a prospect anymore.

Traded Randy Winn for Jesse Foppert and and Yorvit Torrealba...Winn exploded after his trade to the Giants, hitting .355 with 14 homers in the last couple of months in 2005...he is still the Giants' regular center fielder...Torrealba was in Colorado by 2006, and Foppert pitched all of 10 innings for Seattle before being let go this spring.

2004
Traded Freddy Garcia for Jeremy Reed, Mike Morse and Miguel Olivo...The M's traded a top-tier starting pitcher for a guy who was recently sent down to AAA (Reed), a guy who should be in AA (Morse), and a good catcher who was traded away for virtually nothing (see 2005).

2003
Signed Scott Spiezio...December 2003 started one of the more forgettable chapters in Mariner history...He cost the Mariners almost $6 million for two seasons...Spiezio hit .215 in '04 and .064 in limited action in 2005...Then he went to the Cardinals and hit .272 in 2006 and got a ring to boot.

The list of bad deals goes on and on. Going farther back, the Mariners traded away David Ortiz, Carlos Guillen, A-Rod, Randy Johnson, Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe (the last two in one deal for Heathcliffe Slocumb). They also traded Brian Fuentes (current Rockies' closer) back in 2001 for Jeff Cirillo, who hit .249 and .205 in two rough years with the M's....Cirillo also "earned" a total of $13 million for those two seasons.

Here is a post from another blog about Mariners GM Bill Bavasi that pretty much sums up this mess:

"It's one thing to get worse by attrition, as your best players leave due to free agency or retirement. It's another to get worse as part of your core strategy, giving away talented young players in exchange for oft-injured mediocrities, just making things that much harder for your successor in the GM chair."

Monthly Pitching Splits - AL

Certain pitchers have big discrepancies in their month-to-month performances. Former pitcher Rick Reed was a notorious great early-season performer, but he would wear down as the season went on. Thus, it was a good idea to try to draft Reed for a buck or two, and then trade him before he went into the tank.

Here are some notable career ERA monthly splits for active starting pitchers with at least 3 years big-league experience (best ERA month is highlighted):

American League:

Steve Trachsel
APR 4.90 MAY 3.82 JUN 4.38 JUL 4.76 AUG 3.90 SEP 3.96

Curt Schilling
APR 3.50 MAY 3.12 JUN 3.87 JUL 3.39 AUG 3.26 SEP 3.61

Mike Mussina
APR 3.76 MAY 3.36 JUN 4.14 JUL 4.26 AUG 3.57 SEP 2.95

Carl Pavano
APR 4.41 MAY 4.23 JUN 4.52 JUL 4.54 AUG 4.36 SEP 3.68

Roy Halladay
APR 4.69 MAY 3.23 JUN 3.63 JUL 3.47 AUG 4.38 SEP 2.45

AJ Burnett
APR 3.42 MAY 3.76 JUN 3.27 JUL 4.75 AUG 3.38 SEP 4.24

Jon Garland
APR 5.33 MAY 4.21 JUN 4.41 JUL 4.30 AUG 4.05 SEP 4.88

Jose Contreras
APR 4.05 MAY 3.73 JUN 5.26 JUL 4.97 AUG 4.42 SEP 3.85

Mark Buehrle
APR 4.24 MAY 2.92 JUN 3.68 JUL 4.50 AUG 3.74 SEP 4.07

CC Sabathia
APR 4.16 MAY 3.41 JUN 4.67 JUL 5.11 AUG 3.78 SEP 3.09

Jake Westbrook
APR 4.66 MAY 5.23 JUN 3.35 JUL 4.73 AUG 4.93 SEP 3.40

Johan Santana
APR 4.28 MAY 4.33 JUN 2.76 JUL 3.72 AUG 2.23 SEP 2.43

Carlos Silva
APR 4.72 MAY 4.30 JUN 3.87 JUL 5.23 AUG 4.53 SEP 3.09

Jeremy Bonderman
APR 5.18 MAY 4.20 JUN 4.53 JUL 4.37 AUG 5.76 SEP 4.14

Mike Maroth
APR 4.15 MAY 5.47 JUN 3.59 JUL 5.76 AUG 5.15 SEP 4.79

Gil Meche
APR 4.38 MAY 5.00 JUN 2.88 JUL 5.68 AUG 5.55 SEP 4.40

Dan Haren
APR 3.87 MAY 3.92 JUN 3.70 JUL 4.45 AUG 4.24 SEP 4.07

Joe Blanton
APR 4.31 MAY 7.39 JUN 2.92 JUL 4.50 AUG 1.99 SEP 4.96

John Lackey
APR 5.11 MAY 4.15 JUN 3.46 JUL 3.15 AUG 4.86 SEP 3.33

Bartolo Colon
APR 4.27 MAY 3.69 JUN 4.69 JUL 3.78 AUG 3.79 SEP 3.80

Vicente Padilla
APR 4.03 MAY 4.50 JUN 4.06 JUL 3.72 AUG 3.39 SEP 5.01

Kelvim Escobar
APR 4.95 MAY 4.97 JUN 4.22 JUL 4.41 AUG 3.66 SEP 3.68

Kevin Millwood
APR 4.03 MAY 4.13 JUN 4.72 JUL 3.60 AUG 3.63 SEP 3.33

Miguel Batista
APR 5.33 MAY 3.87 JUN 4.79 JUL 3.74 AUG 4.44 SEP 5.22

Joe Blanton has the wildest variance, but also has just 4 years under his belt.

Cold-weather pitchers include Contreras, Pavano and Mussina.

Garland and Padilla seem to like summer.

Johan Santana, Kevin Millwood and Kelvim Escobar are late-bloomers.

Dan Haren and AJ Burnett prefer the first half of the year.

It's interesting to note that NONE of those pitchers have their best ERA in April, when the cold weather is supposed to keep the scoring down.

It's Snowing in Cleveland

They finally got the game started between the Mariners and the Tribe despite the snow. Paul Byrd goes for the Tribe, and Haracio Ramirez is pitching for the M's. That is, if you can call it pitching...which he hasn't done well since a shortened 2004 campaign.

Horacio is one of the questionable Mariners moves the last couple of seasons. He hasn't struck anyone out for years. He pitched 200 innings in 2005, and struck out 80. A whopping 3.6 batters per nine innings. Why the M's would trade the talented Rafael Soriano for him is a mystery to many. Sure, Ramirez can eat up innings, but they're all bad innings.

I'll revisit this later. Meanwhile, Ramirez has given up the first of many runs in the bottom of the first...including a hit and three walks...

The 25th Man - American League

If your AL-only roto league compiles equivalent stats for everyone on the roster, you know how important those $1 players can be. I've compiled a list of players that might still be available in some leagues, who could provide a little spark to your team. Here then, are those major-league bench players, middle relievers and spot starters...

American League

Justin Speier, RP, Angels
- A very good setup man for Scot Shields who sets up K-Rod. Man, what a 'pen.

Chad Durbin, SP, Tigers
- He looks like the Tigers' fifth starter until Kenny Rogers comes back in July from a blood clot. That's plenty of time to prove that he belongs in the rotation permanently.

Reggie Willits, OF, Angels
- He stole 4 bases in 28 games for the Halos last year.

Chad Gaudin, SP, A's
- While Esteban Loaiza is out, Gaudin will make a few starts. Then he will go back to the pen until needed as a starter again. You could definitely do worse for your 5th starter.

George Sherrill, RP, Mariners
- After a terrible spring, the reliable lefty reclaims his spot in the Seattle bullpen.

Chad Bradford, RP, Orioles
- He had a great year with the Mets last year. The sidearmer will give you 50+ innings of low ERA and WHIP.

Marco Scutaro, SS, A's
- Bobby Crosby's recurring injuries lead to plenty of playing time for the A's "Mr. Clutch".

Victor Zambrano, RP, Blue Jays
- A starter turned reliever, Zambrano has too much stuff to remain in the Jays' bullpen for long. Expect him to be starting before June.

Wily Mo Pena, OF, Red Sox
- He hardly plays, but when he does, he hits Home Runs.

Jamie Shields, SP, Devil Rays
- Only 25 years old, Shields had a sub-5.00 ERA and a pretty nice strikeout-to-walk ratio last year. He should get better with experience.

Fausto Carmona, SP, Indians
- Carmona has put up some pretty good minor-league numbers. He starts while Cliff Lee is rehabbing.

Robinson Tejada, SP, Rangers
- He shut down the Red Sox today. He shouldn't be available in deep mixed leagues, but if he is...grab him.

Jesse Crain, RP, Twins
- A hard throwing righty. Joe Nathan is a Free Agent after 2008, so Crain may close for the Twinkies after that.

Boof Bonser, SP, Twins
- Once a hot prospect, Bonser is just trying to settle into the Twins rotation. He's better than Carlos Silva, so his job should be safe for now.

Tony Pena, SS, Royals
- The son of the former Pirates catcher, Pena culd win the Royals shortstop job outright if Berroa doesn't work out (he won't).

Ryan Garko, 1B, Indians
- Tons of power make Garko a sleeper. He just needs more playing time.

Kelly Shoppach, C, Indians
- Of the backup catchers in the AL, Shoppach probably has the most potential.

Jeremy Accardo, RP, Blue Jays
- He had a decent WHIP last year, but his ERA was 5+. He should be better this year.

Bobby Kielty, OF, A's
- Kielty mashes lefties, and is usually the first bat off the bench when the A's need an OF.

Jason Tyner, OF, Twins
- In three AB this year, the speedy Tyner has two SB's already. Not a bad ratio.

The Best Minor Leaguers You've Never Heard of (Pt. 1)

This is the start of a series I'll be doing to highlight some great minor league talent you might not have heard about.

Today's prospects:

Sean Rodriguez, SS Angels
RotoJournal Score: 92.7
Age: 21

Year Lg G AB HR RBI R SB AVG
2006 A 116 455 24 77 78 15 .301
2006 AA 17 62 5 9 15 0 .355
2006 AAA 1 2 0 0 0 0 .000

Rodriguez was off the radar in 2005, but put up big numbers at Single-A in 2006. While he made the jump to AAA in '06, don't expect him to reach the majors soon, as he's just 21, and the Angels are loaded with middle-infield type prospects. Still, 29 home runs and 15 steals means that you don't want to lose track of his progress.

Jay Bruce, OF Reds
RotoJournal Score: 91.8
Age: 19

Year Lg G AB HR RBI R SB AVG
2006 A 117 444 16 81 69 19 .291

Just 19 years old, Bruce tore up the Midwest League, displaying power and speed to make scouts drool. Jay had an OPS of .871 in '06, and was named MVP of the Midwest League All-Star Game. He should move through the Reds' system quickly if he continues to put up decent numbers at such a young age.

Emilio Bonifacio, 2B Diamondbacks
RotoJournal Score: 85.7
Age: 21

Year Lg G AB HR RBI R SB AVG
2006 A 130 546 7 50 117 61 .321

Bonifacio, a switch-hitter, had a great season in the Single-A California League, including an .824 OPS. He has blazing speed, and turned some heads in Diamondback camp this spring. Bonifacio's time from home to first is just 3.9 seconds. His power numbers bear monitoring, as he played in a hitters park in 2006.

Division Inequality in Baseball

It's high time baseball did something to fix one of its biggest problems. No, I'm not talking about steroids, scuffing baseballs, or the Chicago Cubs. It's the huge competitive advantage some teams have gained merely by belonging to the right division.

Back in 1994, Major League Baseball suffered a lost season, which ended in August with no playoffs or World Series. That was also the first season that the American and National Leagues were restructured into three-division leagues instead of two. At that point there were 28 teams in the major leagues. With the addition of Tampa Bay and Arizona in 1998, that brought the number of teams to 30. Although there has been a realignment of teams since then, the basic structure of the league has not changed since 1998.

With 30 teams and six divisions, there should be an equal number of teams (five) in each league. This is true of all but two divisions: The National League's Central Division has six teams, while the American League's Western Division has four. This may not seem like a big deal until one looks at the percentage chance that each team has of making the playoffs.

Major League Baseball currently allows eight teams into the post-season each year. The six division winners get in, plus two Wild-Card teams (one from each league). That means that (all things being equal) each team should have a 26.67% (8 divided by 30) chance of making the playoffs.

However, in the American League (AL) West there are only four teams. Each team has an opportunity to get into the playoffs by winning its division or claiming the Wild-Card spot for the AL. Each AL West team thus has a 25% chance (1 in 4) of winning its division, plus a 9.1% chance (1 in 11 non-division winners) of claiming the Wild Card spot. This adds up to a 34.1% chance that each AL West team has of making the playoffs. By comparison, each team in the AL East or AL Central has only a 29.1% chance of making the playoffs (20% to win their division, plus 9.1% chance at the Wild Card). That's a full 5% competitive advantage that the AL West teams have over the other two American League divisions.

In the National League, there is a somewhat similar scenario, except the National League (NL) Central has six teams while the other two divisions have five. This means that each NL Central team only has a 24.4% chance to make the playoffs (16.7% chance to win their division, plus 7.7% chance to claim the Wild Card spot). The teams in the NL East and NL West have a 27.7% chance of making the playoffs, so the disparity in the National league is only 3.3% instead of five percent.

If one looks at all six divisions, one can see the wide gap between the teams in the NL Central and the AL West:

National League
East ----- 27.7%
Central -- 24.4%
West ----- 27.7%

American League
East ----- 29.1%
Central -- 29.1%
West ----- 34.1%

As anyone can see, the teams in the AL West have a 9.7% higher chance of making the playoffs than the teams in the NL Central. Compound this advantage with the fact that two AL West teams (the A's and Angels) have repeatedly dominated the other two division rivals (the Mariners and Rangers), and the disparity between the divisions grows even further. This large disparity sways the competitive balance to the point where Major League Baseball needs to address the issue.

The solution is relatively simple: Move one NL Central team to the AL West. Then, (all things being equal) every team has the same chance to make the playoffs each year. Keeping location and competitive balance in mind, logical choices to move to the AL West are Houston or Chicago. The Cardinals (St. Louis) are typically the best team in the NL Central, while Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Cincinnati are farther east than the Cubs or Astros.

Until the problem is fixed, I'll relish being an Oakland A's fan even more.
See you in the playoffs (again)!

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