Wednesday, July 25, 2012

2012 AL Fantasy Baseball Trade Evaluator


So far in the 2012 Fantasy Baseball season, I've made 4 big deals. I wanted to evaluate the effectiveness of my trades, so I found this wonderful website, called Baseball Musings which will allow you to view player stats on a specific date range.

Here are my 4 trades for 2012, with stats since each deal was made:

March 29, 2012
I get CC Sabathia, and trade away Ubaldo Jimenez
When another owner offered up this deal, I nearly jumped out of my shorts to pull the trigger. Sabathia is one of the more reliable starters in the game. Jimenez had a fantastic 2010, but he had a disastrous 2011. I'm sure the other owner thought that he would be able to fix whatever caused the problems last year, but so far in 2012, it hasn't happened. Meanwhile, CC has turned in his typical performance and is among the AL leaders in Wins and Strikeouts. This one is a clear win for me, although Jimenez has surprisingly compiled 8 wins despite the lousy stats.

Stats since the trade:
Sabathia 10 W, 117 K, 120 IP, 3.30 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Jimenez 8 W, 88 K, 116 IP, 4.97 ERA, 1.60 WHIP

April 23, 2012
I get Jeremy Hellickson, and trade away Tyson Ross and Alejandro De Aza
Needing starting pitching, I decided to try to deal Ross, who got off to a quick start with the A's. Knowing the other owner was an A's fan, I thought I might be able to deal Ross for Hellickson straight up, but I decided to throw in De Aza to increase the chance of the trade happening. While Ross fizzled quickly, De Aza has been a reliable performer at the top of the 'Sox order. Hellickson has been up and down, but sports an ERA around 3.5 since the deal. His 3 wins since the deal date (in 15 starts) are very poor. I would call this a slight win for me, but it could have been better if I had chosen a different outfielder to include in the deal.

Stats since the trade:
Hellickson 3 W, 58 K, 86 IP, 3.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

De Aza 324 AB, .281 avg, .732 OPS, 3 HR, 15 SB, 50 R, 30 RBI
Ross 1 W, 28 K, 49.2 IP, 7.43 ERA, 1.87 WHIP

May 29, 2012
I get Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Wieters, and trade away Adrian Beltre, Doug Fister, Carlos Pena and Kelly Shoppach

I love trades where I can deal multiple players and get fewer but better players in return. This works especially well if you can fill the vacant roster spots with good alternatives from the Free Agent pool. I was trying to accomplish several things with this deal - target Gonzalez, who I figured would rebound after a slow start, deal Pena, who I figured would decline after a hot start, and deal Fister, since I now had a surplus of starting pitching. I also had earlier picked up Will Middlebrooks to slide into Beltre's 3B spot.

Beltre and Gonzalez have been virtually identical since the deal, with Beltre having slightly better power numbers. Pena has slumped mightily as expected, hitting .173 with only 18 RBI in almost 2 months. Shoppach has been a non-factor with only 49 AB. Fister has been OK, but sports a high ERA since the deal, with stats comparable to your average free agent starter. Wieters has been OK too, but hasn't rebounded yet like I thought he would. Grading this deal may depend on how Fister performs down the stretch, and whether Wieters ever gets hot.

Stats since the trade:
Gonzalez 189 AB, .317 Avg, .793 OPS, 5 HR, 0 SB, 23 R, 32 RBI
Wieters 162 AB, .253 avg, .707 OPS, 4 HR, 1 SB, 13 R, 24 RBI

Beltre 185 AB, .314 avg, .852 OPS, 8 HR, 0 SB, 28 R, 28 RBI
Pena 173 AB, .173 avg, .611 OPS, 7 HR, 1 SB, 27 R, 18 RBI
Shoppach 49 AB, .265 avg, .896 OPS, 3 HR, 0 SB, 7 R, 7 RBI
Fister 4 W, 46 K, 48.1 IP, 4.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

June 6, 2012
I get Alexei Ramirez and Ervin Santana, and trade Yunel Escobar and PJ Walters

It's tough to grade deals where both sides have non-performing or poorly performing players. Santana has been terrible in 2012, but the only area where I've really been hurt by the trade in in ERA (His WHIP is a respectable 1.45 - not great, but not horrible). Walters went on the DL after two short starts, and hasn't come back. That leaves a duel between Ramirez and Escobar to see who came out ahead on this deal. Clearly, Ramirez has been the superior player between the two. He has been a good second-half performer the last few years, so I took a chance that he would do it again. Plus, he has more SB potential than Escobar.

Stats since the trade:
Ramirez 152 AB, .329 Avg, .784 OPS, 2 HR, 7 SB, 20 R, 21 RBI
Santana 2 W, 22 K, 36.2 IP, 7.36 ERA, 1.45 WHIP

Escobar 147 AB, .249 Avg, .640 OPS, 3 HR, 3 SB, 17 R, 17 RBI
Walters 0 W, 2 K, 5 IP, 16.20 ERA, 2.60 WHIP

In review, I think i clearly came out ahead in the March 29 deal and the June 6 deal (Santana not withstanding). I think the other two deals are still too close to call. Hopefully, Wieters and Hellickson will perform better down the stretch, and help make 2012 a championship season...

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