Thursday, July 26, 2012

Baseball Mogul 2013 Review


Baseball Mogul 2K13
Baseball Mogul 2013

It’s been a few years since I posted about one of the best baseball simulations on the market: Baseball Mogul.  Baseball Mogul has been around for quite awhile (BBM 2013 is the 15th edition), and the series has proven to be one of the most realistic, yet fun-to-play baseball sims available. So, it was with eager anticipation that I downloaded the newest version onto my computer.

The first thing to know about Baseball Mogul is that the game titles run one year ahead of the starting season. So, Baseball Mogul 2013 starts off (in normal league play) in 2012. You get all of the players from each MLB team’s opening-day roster. Each team has its own home stadium, fan base, reputation, TV deals, and many more features, even down to the prices of hot dogs at the concession stands. Players have their own salaries, contracts, attitudes and statistical trends. All of these things must be managed on the way to crafting a league champion!

The heart of Baseball Mogul (in my opinion) lies in the ability to manage a given organization over many seasons. If you want to try to win in 2012, but sacrifice the future, you can spend big money on free agents and trade away your prospects for superstars. Trying to trade with other General Managers isn’t always easy, though. If you throw a lousy offer towards another team, you might not be able to work out any deal with that team for awhile. My strategy is usually to sacrifice the first season or two in order to build a long-term contender. My team, the Oakland A’s, is such a project (2012 real-world success not withstanding!)

I started off the 2012 season by looking over the A’s roster, adjusting lineups and the pitching staff. Your batting lineup must be set against right-handed pitchers, and southpaws as well. I also shuffled a few players between the big leagues and AAA. You have four different minor league levels that you can put players at, so you can place them according to their ability level. Finally, there’s the Disabled List. The A’s started the season with some big names on the DL: Dallas Braden, Bret Anderson and Daric Barton.

After I had set my roster, I took a look at the Free Agent list. The best player available at the start of the season was Roy Oswalt. However, his asking price was $4.6M for one season. I decided that even though his salary would be too much for my low-budget A’s, I would offer him something lower over two seasons. Well, we negotiated with his agent back-and-forth, and then the Yankees got into the bidding. I drove the price up to $4.9M, and then bowed out when Oswalt countered with $5.1M. I decided this was too much to pay, and let the Yanks have him.

Others on the Free Agent list included aging former stars like Vladimir Guerrero, Miguel Tejada and Hideki Matsui. These guys were more affordable than Oswalt, but their production was also definitely declining. I decided to look at someone who could help the team over the next couple of seasons at a decent price. With a couple of starting pitchers already on the shelf for much of the season, I made an offer to Joel Pinero, who was asking for $2.1M for one season. I offered $1.8M for two years, and we quickly settled at $2M for two seasons. I quickly inserted Pinero as my #3 starter, booting Graham Godfrey down to AAA.

I placed a few offers on the trading block prior to beginning the season, but didn’t get any satisfactory responses, so I decided to head into the 2012 regular season with my roster as-is. We opened up with two games against the Mariners in Japan, splitting the first two games. In my third game of the season, we were tied 2-2 against the M’s in the eighth inning, and the simulation asked me if I wanted to join the game in Play-By-Play Mode. I thought that sounded fun, so I said ‘Yes’.

We joined the action with two outs in the top of the 8th. My starter, Bartolo Colon, was tiring, but I thought I would try to eke one more out from him to try and get out of the inning. He was able to induce a groundout, and we went to the bottom of the eighth still tied.

We led off the bottom of the frame with Jemile Weeks, who promptly smacked a single to right. I decided to go against my Moneyball principles and play a little small-ball to see if I could manufacture the go-ahead run. I set the next play option to steal second base, and Weeks successfully swiped the bag. Now, with Cliff Pennington up, I wanted to move Weeks over to third in hopes of sacrificing him home. Getting the bunt sign, Pennington laid down a successful sac bunt, putting Weeks at third with one out. I designated the next hitter, Yoenis Cespedes, to try to hit a sacrifice fly to drive in Weeks. He successfully hit a fly ball to Michael Saunders in center field, but it was fairly shallow…would it be enough to score the run from third? The screen indicated the depth of the fly ball, the length of the throw, Saunders’ arm strength, and the probability that Weeks would score if he tried…70%. I sent him home, and he slid in safely with the go-ahead run!

Leading 3-2 going into the top of the 9th, Colon was pretty much done, so I looked at my bullpen options. The Mariners were scheduled to bring up three left-handed hitters. My normal closer, Grant Balfour had worked both of the previous games, although they were the games in Japan the week before. I decided to turn to much-maligned set-up man Brian Fuentes to close the deal, hoping that the southpaw would have an advantage against the lefty hitters. My strategy worked! He got the first batter to fly out harmlessly to right, and then struck out the next two hitters to close out the game.

Playing Baseball Mogul 2013 is a lot of fun, whether you want to play through a bunch of seasons quickly, or frequently use the play-by-play mode to manage the game’s finer points. There is so much detail in this simulation that it could make your head spin. However, you don’t have to choose the normal-style, 2012 MLB season if you don’t want to. BBM ’13 offers other game types. For instance, you can choose to run a team from the past, with accurate team rosters going back to 1901. Or, you can create a totally fictional league with made-up players and teams, too. You can even play as an expansion team (such as the 1961 Washington Senators or the ’98 Diamondbacks). You also have the ability to import your own database to fully customize your Baseball Mogul experience.

Right now, my 2012 A’s team is sitting at 20-21 through the first couple of months of the season. We’re holding steady with a bunch of youngsters, rag-tags and rejects that other teams didn’t want. Oh, and our #1 starter, Brandon McCarthy is out for 99 games with a broken elbow. Thus, our chances of winning this year just took a nosedive, so I’ll be looking even more toward putting a winning team out on the field in future seasons. That means I’ll probably look to dump some salaries, like those belonging to Fuentes ($5M), Balfour ($4M) and Barton (I already traded Barton and his $1M contract for a minor-leaguer.)

I’ll continue to post on Baseball Mogul 2013 as I work through a few seasons in regular play mode. I’ll try out the other play modes as well, to see how they function. I’m particularly interested in setting up my own league with fictional teams and players.

Until next time, Go A’s!!

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

2012 AL Fantasy Baseball Trade Evaluator


So far in the 2012 Fantasy Baseball season, I've made 4 big deals. I wanted to evaluate the effectiveness of my trades, so I found this wonderful website, called Baseball Musings which will allow you to view player stats on a specific date range.

Here are my 4 trades for 2012, with stats since each deal was made:

March 29, 2012
I get CC Sabathia, and trade away Ubaldo Jimenez
When another owner offered up this deal, I nearly jumped out of my shorts to pull the trigger. Sabathia is one of the more reliable starters in the game. Jimenez had a fantastic 2010, but he had a disastrous 2011. I'm sure the other owner thought that he would be able to fix whatever caused the problems last year, but so far in 2012, it hasn't happened. Meanwhile, CC has turned in his typical performance and is among the AL leaders in Wins and Strikeouts. This one is a clear win for me, although Jimenez has surprisingly compiled 8 wins despite the lousy stats.

Stats since the trade:
Sabathia 10 W, 117 K, 120 IP, 3.30 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Jimenez 8 W, 88 K, 116 IP, 4.97 ERA, 1.60 WHIP

April 23, 2012
I get Jeremy Hellickson, and trade away Tyson Ross and Alejandro De Aza
Needing starting pitching, I decided to try to deal Ross, who got off to a quick start with the A's. Knowing the other owner was an A's fan, I thought I might be able to deal Ross for Hellickson straight up, but I decided to throw in De Aza to increase the chance of the trade happening. While Ross fizzled quickly, De Aza has been a reliable performer at the top of the 'Sox order. Hellickson has been up and down, but sports an ERA around 3.5 since the deal. His 3 wins since the deal date (in 15 starts) are very poor. I would call this a slight win for me, but it could have been better if I had chosen a different outfielder to include in the deal.

Stats since the trade:
Hellickson 3 W, 58 K, 86 IP, 3.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

De Aza 324 AB, .281 avg, .732 OPS, 3 HR, 15 SB, 50 R, 30 RBI
Ross 1 W, 28 K, 49.2 IP, 7.43 ERA, 1.87 WHIP

May 29, 2012
I get Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Wieters, and trade away Adrian Beltre, Doug Fister, Carlos Pena and Kelly Shoppach

I love trades where I can deal multiple players and get fewer but better players in return. This works especially well if you can fill the vacant roster spots with good alternatives from the Free Agent pool. I was trying to accomplish several things with this deal - target Gonzalez, who I figured would rebound after a slow start, deal Pena, who I figured would decline after a hot start, and deal Fister, since I now had a surplus of starting pitching. I also had earlier picked up Will Middlebrooks to slide into Beltre's 3B spot.

Beltre and Gonzalez have been virtually identical since the deal, with Beltre having slightly better power numbers. Pena has slumped mightily as expected, hitting .173 with only 18 RBI in almost 2 months. Shoppach has been a non-factor with only 49 AB. Fister has been OK, but sports a high ERA since the deal, with stats comparable to your average free agent starter. Wieters has been OK too, but hasn't rebounded yet like I thought he would. Grading this deal may depend on how Fister performs down the stretch, and whether Wieters ever gets hot.

Stats since the trade:
Gonzalez 189 AB, .317 Avg, .793 OPS, 5 HR, 0 SB, 23 R, 32 RBI
Wieters 162 AB, .253 avg, .707 OPS, 4 HR, 1 SB, 13 R, 24 RBI

Beltre 185 AB, .314 avg, .852 OPS, 8 HR, 0 SB, 28 R, 28 RBI
Pena 173 AB, .173 avg, .611 OPS, 7 HR, 1 SB, 27 R, 18 RBI
Shoppach 49 AB, .265 avg, .896 OPS, 3 HR, 0 SB, 7 R, 7 RBI
Fister 4 W, 46 K, 48.1 IP, 4.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

June 6, 2012
I get Alexei Ramirez and Ervin Santana, and trade Yunel Escobar and PJ Walters

It's tough to grade deals where both sides have non-performing or poorly performing players. Santana has been terrible in 2012, but the only area where I've really been hurt by the trade in in ERA (His WHIP is a respectable 1.45 - not great, but not horrible). Walters went on the DL after two short starts, and hasn't come back. That leaves a duel between Ramirez and Escobar to see who came out ahead on this deal. Clearly, Ramirez has been the superior player between the two. He has been a good second-half performer the last few years, so I took a chance that he would do it again. Plus, he has more SB potential than Escobar.

Stats since the trade:
Ramirez 152 AB, .329 Avg, .784 OPS, 2 HR, 7 SB, 20 R, 21 RBI
Santana 2 W, 22 K, 36.2 IP, 7.36 ERA, 1.45 WHIP

Escobar 147 AB, .249 Avg, .640 OPS, 3 HR, 3 SB, 17 R, 17 RBI
Walters 0 W, 2 K, 5 IP, 16.20 ERA, 2.60 WHIP

In review, I think i clearly came out ahead in the March 29 deal and the June 6 deal (Santana not withstanding). I think the other two deals are still too close to call. Hopefully, Wieters and Hellickson will perform better down the stretch, and help make 2012 a championship season...