Oakland A's are 2012 American League West Division Champions

When you are a fan of a team that hasn't made the playoffs in 5 years, and is picked by some to lose 100 games, and your competitors in the division have spent $$$ on Albert Pujols, and the other team is coming off back-to-back World Series appearances, and you're 13 games out of first place on June 30...you don't think you're going to see this on October 3rd:

It's Time for Some More Bubbly!

Nice job, Billy.  Nice job A's.
2012 AL West CHAMPIONS!!!

Baseball Mogul 2013 Review

Baseball Mogul 2013

It’s been a few years since I posted about one of the best baseball simulations on the market: Baseball Mogul.  Baseball Mogul has been around for quite awhile (BBM 2013 is the 15^th edition), and the series has proven to be one of the most realistic, yet fun-to-play baseball sims available. So, it was with eager anticipation that I downloaded the newest version onto my computer.

The first thing to know about Baseball Mogul is that the game titles run one year ahead of the starting season. So, Baseball Mogul 2013 starts off (in normal league play) in 2012. You get all of the players from each MLB team’s opening-day roster. Each team has its own home stadium, fan base, reputation, TV deals, and many more features, even down to the prices of hot dogs at the concession stands. Players have their own salaries, contracts, attitudes and statistical trends. All of these things must be managed on the way to crafting a league champion!

The heart of Baseball Mogul (in my opinion) lies in the ability to manage a given organization over many seasons. If you want to try to win in 2012, but sacrifice the future, you can spend big money on free agents and trade away your prospects for superstars. Trying to trade with other General Managers isn’t always easy, though. If you throw a lousy offer towards another team, you might not be able to work out any deal with that team for awhile. My strategy is usually to sacrifice the first season or two in order to build a long-term contender. My team, the Oakland A’s, is such a project (2012 real-world success not withstanding!)

I started off the 2012 season by looking over the A’s roster, adjusting lineups and the pitching staff. Your batting lineup must be set against right-handed pitchers, and southpaws as well. I also shuffled a few players between the big leagues and AAA. You have four different minor league levels that you can put players at, so you can place them according to their ability level. Finally, there’s the Disabled List. The A’s started the season with some big names on the DL: Dallas Braden, Bret Anderson and Daric Barton.

After I had set my roster, I took a look at the Free Agent list. The best player available at the start of the season was Roy Oswalt. However, his asking price was $4.6M for one season. I decided that even though his salary would be too much for my low-budget A’s, I would offer him something lower over two seasons. Well, we negotiated with his agent back-and-forth, and then the Yankees got into the bidding. I drove the price up to $4.9M, and then bowed out when Oswalt countered with $5.1M. I decided this was too much to pay, and let the Yanks have him.

Others on the Free Agent list included aging former stars like Vladimir Guerrero, Miguel Tejada and Hideki Matsui. These guys were more affordable than Oswalt, but their production was also definitely declining. I decided to look at someone who could help the team over the next couple of seasons at a decent price. With a couple of starting pitchers already on the shelf for much of the season, I made an offer to Joel Pinero, who was asking for $2.1M for one season. I offered $1.8M for two years, and we quickly settled at $2M for two seasons. I quickly inserted Pinero as my #3 starter, booting Graham Godfrey down to AAA.

I placed a few offers on the trading block prior to beginning the season, but didn’t get any satisfactory responses, so I decided to head into the 2012 regular season with my roster as-is. We opened up with two games against the Mariners in Japan, splitting the first two games. In my third game of the season, we were tied 2-2 against the M’s in the eighth inning, and the simulation asked me if I wanted to join the game in Play-By-Play Mode. I thought that sounded fun, so I said ‘Yes’.

We joined the action with two outs in the top of the 8^th. My starter, Bartolo Colon, was tiring, but I thought I would try to eke one more out from him to try and get out of the inning. He was able to induce a groundout, and we went to the bottom of the eighth still tied.

We led off the bottom of the frame with Jemile Weeks, who promptly smacked a single to right. I decided to go against my Moneyball principles and play a little small-ball to see if I could manufacture the go-ahead run. I set the next play option to steal second base, and Weeks successfully swiped the bag. Now, with Cliff Pennington up, I wanted to move Weeks over to third in hopes of sacrificing him home. Getting the bunt sign, Pennington laid down a successful sac bunt, putting Weeks at third with one out. I designated the next hitter, Yoenis Cespedes, to try to hit a sacrifice fly to drive in Weeks. He successfully hit a fly ball to Michael Saunders in center field, but it was fairly shallow…would it be enough to score the run from third? The screen indicated the depth of the fly ball, the length of the throw, Saunders’ arm strength, and the probability that Weeks would score if he tried…70%. I sent him home, and he slid in safely with the go-ahead run!

Leading 3-2 going into the top of the 9^th, Colon was pretty much done, so I looked at my bullpen options. The Mariners were scheduled to bring up three left-handed hitters. My normal closer, Grant Balfour had worked both of the previous games, although they were the games in Japan the week before. I decided to turn to much-maligned set-up man Brian Fuentes to close the deal, hoping that the southpaw would have an advantage against the lefty hitters. My strategy worked! He got the first batter to fly out harmlessly to right, and then struck out the next two hitters to close out the game.

Playing Baseball Mogul 2013 is a lot of fun, whether you want to play through a bunch of seasons quickly, or frequently use the play-by-play mode to manage the game’s finer points. There is so much detail in this simulation that it could make your head spin. However, you don’t have to choose the normal-style, 2012 MLB season if you don’t want to. BBM ’13 offers other game types. For instance, you can choose to run a team from the past, with accurate team rosters going back to 1901. Or, you can create a totally fictional league with made-up players and teams, too. You can even play as an expansion team (such as the 1961 Washington Senators or the ’98 Diamondbacks). You also have the ability to import your own database to fully customize your Baseball Mogul experience.

Right now, my 2012 A’s team is sitting at 20-21 through the first couple of months of the season. We’re holding steady with a bunch of youngsters, rag-tags and rejects that other teams didn’t want. Oh, and our #1 starter, Brandon McCarthy is out for 99 games with a broken elbow. Thus, our chances of winning this year just took a nosedive, so I’ll be looking even more toward putting a winning team out on the field in future seasons. That means I’ll probably look to dump some salaries, like those belonging to Fuentes ($5M), Balfour ($4M) and Barton (I already traded Barton and his $1M contract for a minor-leaguer.)

I’ll continue to post on Baseball Mogul 2013 as I work through a few seasons in regular play mode. I’ll try out the other play modes as well, to see how they function. I’m particularly interested in setting up my own league with fictional teams and players.

Until next time, Go A’s!!

2012 AL Fantasy Baseball Trade Evaluator

So far in the 2012 Fantasy Baseball season, I've made 4 big deals. I wanted to evaluate the effectiveness of my trades, so I found this wonderful website, called Baseball Musings which will allow you to view player stats on a specific date range.

Here are my 4 trades for 2012, with stats since each deal was made:

March 29, 2012
I get CC Sabathia, and trade away Ubaldo Jimenez
When another owner offered up this deal, I nearly jumped out of my shorts to pull the trigger. Sabathia is one of the more reliable starters in the game. Jimenez had a fantastic 2010, but he had a disastrous 2011. I'm sure the other owner thought that he would be able to fix whatever caused the problems last year, but so far in 2012, it hasn't happened. Meanwhile, CC has turned in his typical performance and is among the AL leaders in Wins and Strikeouts. This one is a clear win for me, although Jimenez has surprisingly compiled 8 wins despite the lousy stats.

Stats since the trade:
Sabathia 10 W, 117 K, 120 IP, 3.30 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Jimenez 8 W, 88 K, 116 IP, 4.97 ERA, 1.60 WHIP

April 23, 2012
I get Jeremy Hellickson, and trade away Tyson Ross and Alejandro De Aza
Needing starting pitching, I decided to try to deal Ross, who got off to a quick start with the A's. Knowing the other owner was an A's fan, I thought I might be able to deal Ross for Hellickson straight up, but I decided to throw in De Aza to increase the chance of the trade happening. While Ross fizzled quickly, De Aza has been a reliable performer at the top of the 'Sox order. Hellickson has been up and down, but sports an ERA around 3.5 since the deal. His 3 wins since the deal date (in 15 starts) are very poor. I would call this a slight win for me, but it could have been better if I had chosen a different outfielder to include in the deal.

Stats since the trade:
Hellickson 3 W, 58 K, 86 IP, 3.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

De Aza 324 AB, .281 avg, .732 OPS, 3 HR, 15 SB, 50 R, 30 RBI
Ross 1 W, 28 K, 49.2 IP, 7.43 ERA, 1.87 WHIP

May 29, 2012
I get Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Wieters, and trade away Adrian Beltre, Doug Fister, Carlos Pena and Kelly Shoppach

I love trades where I can deal multiple players and get fewer but better players in return. This works especially well if you can fill the vacant roster spots with good alternatives from the Free Agent pool. I was trying to accomplish several things with this deal - target Gonzalez, who I figured would rebound after a slow start, deal Pena, who I figured would decline after a hot start, and deal Fister, since I now had a surplus of starting pitching. I also had earlier picked up Will Middlebrooks to slide into Beltre's 3B spot.

Beltre and Gonzalez have been virtually identical since the deal, with Beltre having slightly better power numbers. Pena has slumped mightily as expected, hitting .173 with only 18 RBI in almost 2 months. Shoppach has been a non-factor with only 49 AB. Fister has been OK, but sports a high ERA since the deal, with stats comparable to your average free agent starter. Wieters has been OK too, but hasn't rebounded yet like I thought he would. Grading this deal may depend on how Fister performs down the stretch, and whether Wieters ever gets hot.

Stats since the trade:
Gonzalez 189 AB, .317 Avg, .793 OPS, 5 HR, 0 SB, 23 R, 32 RBI
Wieters 162 AB, .253 avg, .707 OPS, 4 HR, 1 SB, 13 R, 24 RBI

Beltre 185 AB, .314 avg, .852 OPS, 8 HR, 0 SB, 28 R, 28 RBI
Pena 173 AB, .173 avg, .611 OPS, 7 HR, 1 SB, 27 R, 18 RBI
Shoppach 49 AB, .265 avg, .896 OPS, 3 HR, 0 SB, 7 R, 7 RBI
Fister 4 W, 46 K, 48.1 IP, 4.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

June 6, 2012
I get Alexei Ramirez and Ervin Santana, and trade Yunel Escobar and PJ Walters

It's tough to grade deals where both sides have non-performing or poorly performing players. Santana has been terrible in 2012, but the only area where I've really been hurt by the trade in in ERA (His WHIP is a respectable 1.45 - not great, but not horrible). Walters went on the DL after two short starts, and hasn't come back. That leaves a duel between Ramirez and Escobar to see who came out ahead on this deal. Clearly, Ramirez has been the superior player between the two. He has been a good second-half performer the last few years, so I took a chance that he would do it again. Plus, he has more SB potential than Escobar.

Stats since the trade:
Ramirez 152 AB, .329 Avg, .784 OPS, 2 HR, 7 SB, 20 R, 21 RBI
Santana 2 W, 22 K, 36.2 IP, 7.36 ERA, 1.45 WHIP

Escobar 147 AB, .249 Avg, .640 OPS, 3 HR, 3 SB, 17 R, 17 RBI
Walters 0 W, 2 K, 5 IP, 16.20 ERA, 2.60 WHIP

In review, I think i clearly came out ahead in the March 29 deal and the June 6 deal (Santana not withstanding). I think the other two deals are still too close to call. Hopefully, Wieters and Hellickson will perform better down the stretch, and help make 2012 a championship season...

Daily MLB Starting Lineups

If you play fantasy baseball on Yahoo or another site, and you're required to input your starting lineups daily, you might have times when Yahoo, etc.. don't list the starters until right before game time. That can make it really frustrating to try to guess who to play that day.

Now, you can get your daily lineups here:
Baseball Press Daily MLB Lineups
 
Generally, they have the lineups out a couple of hours before the start of each game, and so far this season, they've been quite accurate.

Who Should the Portland Trail Blazers take in the 2013 NBA Draft?

So, the Blazers have the #6 and #11 overall picks in the NBA draft right now. They also have the #40 & #41 (2nd round picks). That makes four picks in the top 41.

If the goal is to win a championship, then realistically, the Blazers are a few years away from building that kind of team. Every NBA champion for the last 30+ years has had a bonafide superstar, with the exception of Detroit in '03-'04 (Billups/R. Wallace/B. Wallace). The league still very much rewards the scorer (Kobe, LeBron, Wade, etc..) who can take his man 1-on-1 - much more so than the defensive star.

The current roster boasts Aldridge as an All-Star PF, Batum as a good scorer/defender at the SG/SF position, Matthews as a good 3-point shooter at SG, and not much in the way of talent after that. Hickson looks like a decent scoring option off the bench, but probably not starter material on a winning team.

To build this team into a champion, they can build around Aldridge (not yet a superstar on the level of past NBA champions) or try to make a play on a potential superstar in the draft, or via free agency. The trouble with free agency is that if the team's not ready to win now, there's no reason to spend $$$ on your superstar yet.

This means that the Blazers will have to be very careful with their moves. I've watched the Oakland A's (baseball) squander countless opportunities to improve the team for the future by signing players at high salaries (Holliday, Crisp, Fuentes) when the team wasn't ready to win yet. They can't seem to decide whether they're rebuilding or trying to eke out 80 wins. In my opinion, you have to have a plan that specifies a point in the future when you plan to win, and not deviate from that plan just because you think so-and-so will help your team in the present.

All that said, if the Blazers can't put a package of picks and players together for Anthony Davis (this would be difficult without including Aldridge), they need to make decisions which make the team ready to win 2-3 years down the road. The lottery makes it difficult to predict where you'll draft even if you have the worst record in the league, so trying to bank on that #1 pick in any year is unrealistic.

Since the Blazers have no GM right now (and no head coach), I'll draft the guys who have the most upside. They may not look great this year, but give 'em playing time and in a couple of years it could work out. That said, I like UConn center Andre Drummond at the 6 spot (18 years old, plenty of raw talent, needs time to develop). He may go one or two spots higher, so Portland should be ready to deal up to get him. At #11, I like Duke frosh SG Austin Rivers for his scoring ability (another young player who needs time to develop).

The current starters would be

C Drummond

PF Aldridge

SF Batum

SG Rivers/Matthews - Matthews regressed last year and makes too much $$$ for his talent level. I'd like to see him traded or replaced as a starter by 2013 for sure. He would be a decent option off the bench.

PG Low-Cost Free Agent for now...upgrade this substantially in 2013 draft or free agency when ready to win.

Bench is Hickson, Kurt Thomas, etc...Need to build the bench up again within the next couple of years.

J. Crawford needs to go, looks like he has a player option for this season. Try to trade him if you can.

Again, this group doesn't look that great now, but in 2-3 years with the right moves, it could...

Quintin Berry's Yahoo Pic

Somebody better tell Yahoo that their image of Detroit Tiger outfielder Quintin Berry leaves a little bit to be desired. It's imaginative, but only relevant if he's into levitation or self-decapitation.