2007 Pac-10 Preview

Guest Writer and OSU alum Kyle Rogers chimes in with his 2007 Pac-Ten Football Preview:

A little over 24 hours before the 2007 football season kicks off. Here is my breakdown of the best conference in the nation.

Predicted Conference Records:

USC 9-0

UCLA 7-2

Cal 7-2

Oregon St. 5-4

Oregon 4-5

ASU 4-5

WSU 3-6

Arizona 3-6

Washington 2-7

Stanford 1-8

USC- Reloaded isn't even a strong enough word to describe this juggernaut. Their backfield is loaded with talented experience. So, they have to replace two major productive WR, but they have the athletes. Can a there be another Ucla or OS loss on their resume? The Defense looks tough again, however they can be vulnerable in the secondary. Too much depth this year, and with JDB coming back with a whole year under his belt I expect this team to run the table. A near upset will be the ASU game.

UCLA- you keep thinking with all the recruits and talent that this team will put it together, but every year Dorrell costs them a couple of games. This is Oregon South, tons of talent, but a penchant to underachieve by not showing up for the less-than-important games. I see them losing in Corvallis, and USC, but they will be right there in the conference race if Olsen steps up big.

Cal- is a consensus number two pick, with their performance the last five years under Tedford (probably the best coach in the league). They have DeSean Jackson who possibly could return kickoffs as well as punts. Not to mention, he is a deep threat at WR. They will have to replace Marshawn Lynch, but they have a good stable of RB's and under Tedford somebody always emerges. I see their defense as not being as strong as the offense, and teams like ASU, OS, and USC will give them problems. OS has won the last four games in Berkley.

Oregon- Returns a lot on offense, but you have to wonder where the committment is and what type of team chemistry they have, especially after a few losses. Stewart is a great back who can cause a ton of problems; we shall see if they call more plays for him or if he will get lost in the offense. The defense doesn't look very good, and the Ducks will have to score a lot of points.

Oregon State - New QB, new punter (Serna), no Sammie Stroughter (update - he is practicing), and a tough road schedule will provide a huge challenge for this team. However, the defense looks better than last year, the OL is the best in country, and Yvenson Bernard is the most verstatile back in the league. They will need to limit turnovers by their inexperienced QB's and kicking game. They will beat some teams, but will struggle on the road and need their senior leadership to get them through the season. Top games: ASU, UCLA, and Oregon.

ASU- Wherever DE ends up he usually leads that team to a Pac-10 crown, and I won't be surprised to see him do it again --- however it won't be this year. Again they will beat some tough teams, maybe even USC, but their defense is horrible. It will improve under DE, but they are still a year or two away.

WSU- Will be in the mix this year, with Alex Brink at QB and they will play a lot better than last year, however Brink might not have enough around him to take the pressure off of him in the offense. Tough games against Oregon and Cal will determine what type of season it will be. The defense will not be as strong at pass defense, but they could put up some numbers. A bad season and Doba may be on his way out.

Arizona- Much will be determined by the QB, and if Tuitutama can perform without mistakes they might knock some pretenders out (ASU, Ucla). Their defense along with Ucla's will be the top in the league and will keep them in games. However, Stoops is not a good coach and doesn't get the most out of his players. He is a good recruiter, but not so much with offense players.

Washington- will be improved but their talent level still isn't very high. They will give teams a lot of heart, but a tough Non-conference schedule will have this team realizing they have a lot of work still ahead. There isn't anything on this team that scares you, and it will be easy to make them one dimensional.

Stanford- enough said.

NFL Briefs - NFC East

The Dallas Cowboys were seconds away from possibly winning their first-round playoff game last year when QB Tony Romo botched the snap from center, and the season was suddenly over. The 'Boys have all of the tools to get back to the playoffs this year. Romo comes off a good season, and should only get better from here. He gives Dallas instant credibility and consistency at the game's most importnant position that the team never had under Drew Bledsoe. The strong running game should promote good balance on offense. There is a ton of speed on defense. Look for a breakout season from linebacker DeMarcus Ware. On paper, this is the best team in the division. (11-5)

QB Eli Manning struggled through an inconsistent season last year. His 2006 stats (24 TD, 18 INT) were eerily similar to his 2005 stats. At times, he looked dominant, but also appeared dazed and confused on many occasions. The New York Giants will struggle this year because of the QB play, the depature of Tiki Barber, and the inconsistent play of Plaxico Burress. On defense, the G-Men are in the bottom half of the league. The secondary, which gave up over 200 passing yards per game in '06, is a big concern. The Giants will surprise a few teams, but will also lose some games that they should win. (6-10)

The Philadelphia Eagles played over their heads in '06, winning the division on a late season surge led by QB Jeff Garcia. This year, Donovan McNabb is back and healthy, and the team should respond with another winning campaign, although the record might not be any better than last year's 10-6 mark. McNabb is the guy who makes the Eagles a Super Bowl contender every year. RB and all-purpose stud Brian Westbrook provides McNabb with a great weapon who puts up a lot of all-purpose yardage. The receiving corps is marginally better this year, with the addition of Kevin Curtis (Rams). The defense will be sound, but not spectacular. The coaching of Andy Reid almost always makes the Eagles better than they appear on paper. (10-6)

Mediocrity has been the theme in D.C. for several years now. Although they made the playoffs in 2005, competing with the other tough teams in this division has left the Washington Redskins out in the cold. In fact, '05 is the team's only winning season this decade. QB Jason Campbell will see if he can light a fire under an offense that has traditionally struggled. The RB tandem of Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts is very talented, but should be even more productive than they have been. Look for Portis to be the odd man out here. The defense should be above average, but the secondary is somewhat suspect. Even a Hall of Fame coach like Joe Gibbs will have a tough time getting wins out of this squad. (5-11)

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Rangers 30, Orioles 3

What can you say about a game where the 8 and 9 hitters drive in 14 runs? Or where the bullpen gives up 24 runs in 4 innings? Or where the winning team gets more runs than outs?

The Rangers season batting average just went up five points. The Orioles dropped from 7th to 11th in ERA in just this one game. Oh, and Wes Littleton got the 3-inning save, if that excites you.

Hopefully you didn't have Brian Burres or Paul Shuey on your fantasy squad...

NFL Briefs - AFC East

With its salary cap and collective bargaining agreement, the National Football League (NFL) has become the major professional sports league with the most parity. The NFL schedule makers also penalize the good teams from the previous season by increasing the difficulty of their opponents. That means that it's easier in the NFL for a franchise to rise from the ashes to reach the playoffs or even the Super Bowl.

AFC East -
The success of the Miami Dolphins has, since the retirement of Dan Marino, been built upon a suffocating defense. The offense usually scores just enough, or not quite enough, points to win. It's been hard for the Fins to escape the middle of the pack because the passing game has usually been subpar. Enter Trent Green... He has put up some nice numbers in Kansas City, but he has yet to display the leadership skills necessary to take a team to the Big Game. I rate Miami as an extreme longshot. (6-10)

The once-mighty New England Patriots almost made it to the Super Bowl last year, but the Indy offense kicked it into gear in the second half of the AFC Championship game to roar away with the conference title. Can Brady and crew rebound to get back to the promised land? With the highly publicized addition of Randy Moss, the Pats' offense may (or may not) improve (see Oakland last year). The Patriot defense seems to be in decline, and this does not resemble the team that won 3 super bowls, which was built on great defense and unheralded position players on offense. The Pats are definitely set to make a run in the playoffs, but I see them going out in the first or second round. (11-5)

Quarterback J.P. Losman displayed more talent in his third season than in the previous two, and seems ready to move into the upper half of QBs in the league. For the Buffalo Bills to win enough games to make the playoffs, he has to be brilliant, and avoid costly turnovers. His 14 interceptions from last year were too high for a team that plays low-scoring games. The Bills' defense can be just plain suffocating. However, with the off-season loss of linebackers Takeo Spikes and London Fletcher, this could be another tough season for Buffalo fans. I think that a .500 season will be a tall order for this group. (7-9)

In the recent past, the New York Jets have sometimes put late-season runs together, but have always come up short of the Super Bowl. In order for the Jets to compete for the title in 2008, they will need quarterback Chad Pennington to perform at a level he hasn't played at since 2002, when he posted 22 touchdowns and only six interceptions. Don't count on it. On the other side of the ball, newly-signed cornerback Darrelle Revis should pay dividends down the road. However, first-year corners are always targets for NFL passers, so expect the Jets to give up some big plays. I project the Jets to just miss the playoffs in '08. (9-7)

Goodbye Wily Mo, We Hardly Knew Ye

I woke up this morning to find out that another of my roto players had been traded to the NL. The Red Sox sent Wily Mo Pena to the Expos...I mean Nationals (whatever) for nothing (A PTBNL if you want to get technical).

All I can say to AL GMs is "STOP TRADING ALL MY FREAKIN' PLAYERS AWAY!!!" Or if you have to trade them to the NL, at least get something back in return so I can fill my roster with new talent. Now, I have to decide if I want Eric Hinske, Donny Murphy or Marco Scutaro to take his roster spot.

Now, enough complaining...Wily Mo was never going to get a chance in Beantown, but I did hope he'd go to the Royals or Orioles rather than the Nats. He's got a ton of power, but doesn't make great contact. That prompted Nationals GM Jim Bowden to say "One thing about Willie Mo Pena I can tell you is if you give him 500 at bats, he's going to hit 40 home runs and strike out more than Adam Dunn," Bowden said. "And he's a below-average defender who needs to work hard on his game."

Sounds like a ringing endorsement to me...

Loading up for 2008

Whether you're gunning for your Fantasy Baseball League Championship in 2007, or are already out of the running for any winnings, it's always a good idea to start planning for next year. Around this time of year, I try to identify guys who I expect to have an impact the following season, who can be picked up off the free agent wire or added to my farm system. Picking up those guys in August won't hurt your stats too much, and might give you some firepower or trade bait for the years ahead. I try to target young players who might have been called up recently, or players who might get a starting shot next year who might still be flying under the radar.

American League - Jeff Mathis, C, LAA
...has displayed a good bat in the minors, now it's time to step up in The Show.

Wily Mo Pena, OF, BOS
...someday soon, a team (not Boston) will give Mo a starting job to see what he can do. He's got great power, and would put up 30+ homers given 500 AB.

Rafael Betancourt, RP, CLE
...After posting tremendous numbers in the minors a few years back, Betancourt has had minimal opportunities to close in the majors. Although Joe Borowski has been good this year, Betancourt's performance this year has indicated that he is ready for the closer's job in Cleveland.

Brandon McCarthy, SP, TEX
...He's got great stuff, and has pitched much better the last month or two. He's got what I look for in a young starting pitcher - a good arsenal, ability to get guys out when it counts, and marked improvement.

Kason Gabbard, SP, TEX
...After getting traded from Boston, (will they regret that move?) Gabbard has been moved into the Rangers' rotation. Have you seen him throw? He's got some nasty stuff. Expect him to get every opportunity to stay there in '08.

Wilson Betemit, IF, NYY
...After watching Betemit in Atlanta a couple of years ago, I've always known he can hit. He's got a lot of pop for an infielder. He may not get a great chance in New York, but may move to a new location in 2008.

Adam Jones, OF, SEA
...If you can still grab Jones, do so now. He's a 5-tool stud who will take off soon. Alexi Casilla, 2B, MIN Not as polished as Luis Castillo, whom the Twinkies traded away. Still, loads of talent.

Wladimir Balentien, OF, SEA ...
Another Mariner minor-league hitter who can rake. Santiago Casilla, RP, OAK He's one of those guys who looks really impressive when he throws. He's young, so don't expect miracles yet.

Kurt Suzuki, C, OAK
...Oakland pitchers are already saying that he handles a game really well. He hit well in the minors, so expect him to pick up the pace by next year.

Ben Zobrist, SS, TB
...He has killed minor league pitching, but has whiffed an a couple of opportunities in the bigs. Too young to be considered a 4-A guy, (someone who destroys AAA, but can't hit in the majors) I believe he will start to produce this year.

Andrew Brown, RP, OAK
...Nasty, nasty stuff. His strikeout rate in the minors was one of the higher rates I've ever seen. Time will tell if that translates to good roto numbers, but he has done well in Oakland's pitching paradise so far.

Rafael Perez, RP, CLE
...The best guy you might not know about...he has shown excellent production out of Cleveland's pen this year. He might step up to a setup role in 2008.

Brandon Wood, 3B, LAA
...The Angels have too many talented infielders. That said, Wood is a great hitter who should get a long look next year.

Matt Garza, SP, MIN
...He should nail down a spot in the middle of the Twins' rotation for 2008. How has this team kept Carlos Silva all these years?

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 1B, TEX
...The main prize in the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, Salty can catch or play first. He doesn't have a lot of power yet for a firstbaseman, but should hit much better than he has so far for the Rangers.

Jason Botts, OF/DH, TEX
...A Kevin Mench type who can mash. I tend to stay away from guys who don't play good defense, simply because they are usually the first ones traded. However, he should be a regular contributor in Arlington for a couple of years.

C.J. Wilson, RP, TEX
...He is getting a chance to close now, with Otsuka out. That will definitely help his value in the years ahead, even if he's not closing for Texas.

Ben Francisco, OF, CLE
...Because the Indians are in the pennant chase, Francisco hasn't received a lot of chances yet. Baseball

Frankie Francisco, RP, TEX
...He's been around a few years, and injured for a good part of the last two seasons. He can really throw hard, and could be a closer candidate sometime soon.