Chuck the BCS Football Rankings

There’s no shortage of comments out there about how the BCS system fails to accurately rank college football teams. But, I thought I’d add my $.02 in anyway.

My specific complaint centers around West Virginia. They started out the 2012 season at #11 in the first AP poll. I have no idea what this ranking was based on, other than these polls do exist in the early season, and somebody has to be #11.

Their first three games were against Marshall, James Madison and Maryland (who barely beat William & Mary, 7-6). They won these three games to rise to #9 in the AP poll. I have no idea what this ranking was based on, other than these polls do exist in the early season, and somebody has to be #9.

Their next game was against unranked Baylor (#25 at the time). Baylor had beaten Southern Methodist, Sam Houston St. and Louisiana-Monroe to “achieve” their Top 25 slot. West Virginia beats Baylor at home, giving up 63 points in the process, and jumps to #8. Still no wins against a “good” team, or a team who had beaten anybody good (La. Monroe did beat (#8 at the time) Arkansas, but the Hogs are terrible.)

Next up for West Virginia was #11 Texas. How did Texas get this ranking? They beat Wyoming, New Mexico and Mississippi. They also beat unranked Oklahoma St. West Virginia wins a 48-45 shootout. Again, Texas had not beaten anyone that is now in the Top 25.

Of course, West Virginia gets absolutely thrashed 49-14 by Texas Tech in their next game. But, not before they had risen to #5 in the AP poll. So still, none of their wins had come against a good team, and none of the teams they have beaten had won against anyone good. They drop to #17. What they were even doing in the Top 25 at this point is a mystery.

Soon after, West Virginia got demolished by Kansas State. K-State had beaten a Top 15 squad in Oklahoma, and it showed in the game against West Virginia. WV drops to #25. But they were still in the AP top 25 poll! Not only that, but West Virginia was still #19 in the poll that matters – the BCS.

My argument is that this team should have been nowhere near the Top 25. In my opinion, there was no good logical basis for this ranking.

Let's Throw out the RPI Rankings for Men's College Basketball

OK, here’s my 2013 bash of the RPI rankings.

Belmont #24/Oregon #25

Belmont (#24)

15-4 (6-0), 1st Ohio Valley – East

                Fri, Nov 9             at Lipscomb                        W 89-60                --             --             --

               Tue, Nov 13        Maryville (Mo.)                 W 88-49                --             --             --

               Sun, Nov 18        at Stanford                         W 70-62                --             --             --

               Wed, Nov 21      at Alaska                              W 74-60                --             --             --

               Fri, Nov 23           Northeastern                    L 71-74                 --             --             --

               Sat, Nov 24         at Oral Roberts                 W 70-67                --             --             --

               Sat, Dec 1            at VCU                                 L 65-75                 --             --             --

               Tue, Dec 4           Lipscomb                             W 100-66             --             --             --

               Thu, Dec 13         Middle Tenn. St.               W 64-49                --             --             --

               Sat, Dec 15          at (9) Kansas                      L 60-89                 --             --             --

               Wed, Dec 19       South Dakota St.              W 76-49                --             --             --

               Fri, Dec 28           at Boston U.                       W 64-48                --             --             --

               Sat, Dec 29          at UCF                                   L 63-66                 --             --             --

               Thu, Jan 3            at Jacksonville St.             W 73-62                --             --             --

               Sat, Jan 5             at Tennessee Tech          W 83-52                --             --             --

               Thu, Jan 10          SE Missouri St.                   W 107-72             --             --             --

               Sat, Jan 12           Tenn-Martin                      W 90-53                --             --             --

               Thu, Jan 17          Eastern Kentucky             W 83-76                --             --             --

               Sat, Jan 19           Tennessee St.                   W 78-66                --             --             --

That’s one game against an AP Top 25 team (lost to Kansas by 29) The only impressive win was at Stanford (11-7, 2-3 in Pac-12). Other Losses against Northeastern, VCU and UCF.

Oregon (#25)

16-2 (5-0), 1st Pac-12

Sat, Nov 10         Northern Arizona             W 83-73                --             --             --

               Mon, Nov 12      Portland St.                        W 80-69                --             --             --

               Fri, Nov 16           Vanderbilt                           W 74-48                --             --             --

               Mon, Nov 19      Jacksonville St.                 W 67-45                --             --             --

               Fri, Nov 23           at (18) UNLV                      W 83-79                --             --             --

               Sat, Nov 24         (22) Cincinnati                   L 66-77                 --             --             --

               Thu, Nov 29        UTSA                                     W 95-78                --             --             --

               Sat, Dec 1            AR Pine Bluff                      W 80-59                --             --             --

               Sat, Dec 8            Idaho St.                              W 87-35                --             --             --

               Sat, Dec 15          Nebraska                             W 60-38                --             --             --

               Wed, Dec 19       at UTEP                                L 84-91                 --             --             --

               Sat, Dec 22          Houston Baptist                W 91-50                --             --             --

               Mon, Dec 31       Nevada                                W 56-43                --             --             --

               Sun, Jan 6            at Oregon St.                     W 79-66                --             --             --

               Thu, Jan 10          (4) Arizona                          W 70-66                --             --             --

               Sun, Jan 13          Arizona St.                          W 68-65                --             --             --

               Thu, Jan 17          at USC                                   W 76-74                --             --             --

               Sat, Jan 19           at (24) UCLA                       W 76-67                --             --             --

That’s 3 wins and one loss against AP Top 25 teams at the time the game was played. Cincinnati and UNLV have since dropped out of the AP poll (both are in the Top 30). UCLA will also drop out after the Oregon loss last weekend. One “bad” loss for Oregon in OT at UTEP (10-7, 3-1 in Conference USA), so not that bad.

Both teams beat Jacksonville St. – Oregon by 22 at home, Belmont by 11 on the road.

To me there’s no comparison between these two teams – with Oregon having the seemingly tougher schedule and better quality wins, and yet Belmont is ranked HIGHER than Oregon in the RPI, updated yesterday, Jan. 20. In fact, that RPI shows Belmont having a much higher Strength of Schedule than Oregon:

Rank      Team     Record Pts          SoS Rank             v RPI 1-50            v RPI 51-100        v RPI 101-150     v RPI 151-200     v RPI 200+

24.              Belmont           15 - 4     0.6264   38           1 - 2        4 - 0        1 - 2        2 - 0        5 - 0

25.              Oregon             16 - 2     0.6246   81           3 - 1        2 - 1        2 - 0        3 - 0        6 – 0

So, both teams are 5-2 against the RPI Top 100, but Oregon has beaten the higher ranked teams. Oregon has no other losses, while Belmont has 2 losses against RPI 101-150.

It seems like the RPI ranking is based on their Strength of Schedule calculation with little or no regard for actual performance. 

To understand the RPI Rankings and how they work, this breakdown is necessary:

Parameter	% of Rating
Team Winning %	25 %
Opponent's Winning %	50 %
Opponent's Opponent's Winning %	25 %

That means that only 25% of a team's RPI score is determined by how that team actually performed. There's also no difference for winning by 1, or winning by 30.

Too bad this is used in factoring who gets into the big dance at the end of the season. Since this is the case, shouldn’t the RPI count the wins against Other NCAA tournament quality teams (i.e. RPI Top 50) as more meaningful than the rest of the schedule? 

 

Breaking News: Philadelphia Eagles Set to Hire Oregon's Chip Kelly

Chip Kelly to Eagles

ESPN's Chris Mortensen has just reported via Twitter that Oregon head coach Chip Kelly will replace Andy Reid as the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles.

Last season, Kelly interviewed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and interviewed this season with the Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns and the Eagles.

On Monday, Jan. 7, it was reported that Kelly was not accepting the Eagles job, and would be staying with the Ducks. Apparently, the Eagles were unwilling to give up roster control to Kelly, who wants players with specific skill sets to run his fast-tempo offense.

The Eagles had been pursuing Notre Dame Head coach Brian Kelly, but that chase ended when he decided to remain at Notre Dame.

It is believed that Oregon will promote offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich to head coach. The coaching change will break up one of the most stable coaching organizations in college football, although it remains to be seen what the ripple effects on Oregon's staff will be.

It's unknown whether Chip Kelly will stick with current Eagles quarterback Michael Vick, or turn to other alternatives to build his new NFL offense.

Chip Kelly was 46-7 in his four seasons at Oregon.