Roto Journal

Fantasy College Basketball

2011-09-19T16:32:00.000-07:00

With the NBA lockout about to extend into training camp, it's looking more and more like the season will be in jeopardy. However, fantasy basketball fans need not fret, because college hoops will start right on schedule. What, you've never participated in a Fantasy College Basketball League? It can be great fun, and a good way to learn about some of the lesser-known talent around the nation.

Most Fantasy College Basketball Leagues use only the top talent from the most prestigious conferences, and that's fine. However, it's probably more fun to draft players from the schools other than Duke, North Carolina and Kentucky.

One really radical idea is to start a Fantasy College Basketball Keeper League. Since players generally stick around for at least three years, this makes sense in the college hoops arena.

The main thing is to be creative, and set up a league that's simple enough to keep your owners interested, but also one that will stay compelling throughout the year.

Oh, and if you don't know who Adjehi Baru is, you better start looking him up now.

Free Fantasy Football Helmets

2011-08-16T20:19:00.000-07:00

About ten years ago, I ran a fantasy football league. In addition to being the commissioner, I also took on the task of designing helmets for each team in the league. I gathered information from each owner, such as color scheme, logo and general helmet design, and used this information to create some custom fantasy football helmets.

The helmets were designed in Photoshop, using a blank helmet template, which you see here. I selected the part of the helmet where I wanted the artwork to appear, and pasted the design into this portion of the helmet. Then, I would color in the additional lines and facemask, and add a spotlight effect for the finished product.

The final results were sometimes professional-looking, sometimes hilarious, but always well-suited to the teams and owners in our league. Below, I'll show some of the customized fantasy football helmets that I came up with.

The Bald Prophets Union chose a simple text logo for their helmet design. The Carnivores went with the obvious T-Rex mascot. The Black Gate Balrogs chose the Eye of Sauron for their logo, forgoing the customary center strip, a la Penn State.

The next set of helmets feature the Cartel, who selected a violence theme for their headgear. I never quite understood the Nine Inch Nails Logo, but to each his own.

The Dallas Death employed a simple, yet powerful look with a Raider-like color scheme. The Jeffersons had arguably the most laughable helmet in the league. This one was later replaced with a simple logo design.

The Kona Gold promoted the growing of certain plants on their helmet, which employed a striking green and yellow design. Continuing the illicit leaf theme, the Marley helmet was an instant classic, reminding some of a mural placed on the side of a Chevy van. The Monkey Team was run by no owner. It consisted of players from the free agent pool that no one picked up during the week.

The Nightmare helmet turned out well, but the color scheme conflicted with the Cartel (see above), so it was ultimately rejected. The Portland Porters used the color scheme of nearby Oregon State, and combined this with a frothy mug from the local brewery. The Reservoir Dogs were real dogs, and chose crimebuster McGruff as their mascot.

Feel free to copy these helmets for your own use. Good luck this year in your own fantasy football league...

2010 American League Free Agents

2010-05-21T09:08:00.000-07:00

The 2010 season is 1 1/2 months gone, and whatever style of fantasy baseball league you are playing in, you are competing with the other owners in your league for those bottom-of-the barrel free agents. In my 10-team AL-only league, most of the decent offensive players are gone, while a few intriguing pitching prospects can still be found in the FA pool.

Let's look at the best available players on our league's free agent list to see who might be available in a pinch.

Catcher
Gerald Laird, Dioner Navarro, Rob Johnson, Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Salty has the most upside here, but is currently in the minors, trying to figure out how to throw the baseball back to the pitcher. He also hasn't hit well in his 2+ years with the Rangers, but he has torn up AAA pitching in his brief time on the farm in 2010.
Navarro has a little bit of talent, and might regain his starting job at some point. I'm a big fan of power over batting average. Our league includes OPS as a category, which makes home runs the most important single stat to target. So, I might look for a part-time catcher with power over Navarro.

First Base
Mike Sweeney, Matt LaPorta, Chris Davis
The first-base position is really slim pickings in my league, with only Sweeney and LaPorta getting decent playing time. Sweeney is old, and you may not see much production from him from here on out. Keep an eye out for whoever the Mariners are grooming for the 1B job, as Sweeney could be a June release.
LaPorta has not lived up to his giant hype, and may start to fall off the radar soon. Still, if you've got no other options, he'll still have some chances to prove himself. Chris Davis is currently in AAA to show that he can put up decent numbers to go along with his prodigious number of strikeouts. He may get another shot soon, now that the Rangers have cut Ryan Garko.

Second Base
Willie Bloomquist, Matt Tuiasasopo, Jayson Nix
The second sack is another position with really slim pickings on our league’s FA list. None of the available players is hitting over .213 in 2010, and there doesn’t appear to be much in the way of potential, either. Bloomquist has been a reliable 15 SB guy in the past, and he has three in limited action in 2010. You could pick him up if he starts to get regular playing time, and then try to package him in a trade.

Tuiasasopo has some upside (that’s what they call it when you haven’t played or performed much). Nix showed some power in 2009, but hasn’t hit in short duty this year.

When the options at a position are so scant, I don’t recommend over-paying for a somewhat better player in a trade.I always try to add the best players to my roster (regardless of position), and if I’m short at a position or two, I try to be patient. Don’t drop Travis Hafner to pick up Omar Vizquel just because you think you need a middle infielder. It’s pretty easy to find a mediocre solution on the free agent wire at some point. That way, you don’t give up anything major for a slight stat increase.

2009 American League Free Agents

2009-04-21T15:53:00.000-07:00

After the first couple of weeks in the 2009 season, many fantasy baseball owners are wondering how to help their teams without trading away key talent. The answer lies in the bottom of the free agent barrel, where there is always good talent to be found if you know where to look.

The following players are currently available in my 10-team AL-only league. Each one brings something to the table, whether it be potential, consistency or good production at a tough position.

AL Hitters

Andruw Jones
Limited playing time has been just what this whiff-king needed to get his swing back in order. Barely making the Rangers out of spring training, he is 7-14 with a homer so far in 2009. The Texas lineup is tough to crack right now, but if he keeps performing, they will have to find a spot for him.

Brent Lillibridge
Only hitting .150 so far, but 3 steals make him an intriguing play. See if he can raise his average to gain more playing time and you've got a quality speedster on your hands.

Josh Anderson
Tigers' manager Jim Leyland likes him, and he has a couple of steals. He should continue to get decent playing time and he's young, so he has some upside.

John Buck
The best catcher on the free agent list, Buck already has 3 home runs. He's stuck behind Miguel Olivo for playing time in Kansas City, but has demonstrated the ability to hit the long ball over the years. Not a bad option for your backup catcher, but might make a weak choice for a starter.

Felix Pie
The Orioles' outfielder has not shown much ability to hit for average so far, batting just .147. Pie does have the tools to do everything on the baseball field, so this might be a really good time to pick him up when no one else is looking.

Trevor Crowe
If the Indians continue their losing ways, expect more playing time for the youngsters. That would mean more at bats for Crowe, who has 4 RBI and a .227 average.

Robert Andino
Acquired by Baltimore just before the season, Andino has filled in at the middle infield spots, and managed 4 hits in 12 at bats. He may see some more playing time with the injury to Melvin Mora.

Mike Sweeney
Old guys get no respect sometimes, yet Sweeney can still hit for average. He has 29 at bats already in a weak Mariner lineup that should give him plenty of opportunities to play.

Rod Barajas
Another catcher that can hit home runs, expect 15 dingers from Barajas this year.

Travis Buck
A little bit of a surprise that Buck hasn't been picked up, but past injuries have made owners gunshy. he's 4-19 so far with 3 RBI.

AL Pitchers

Brandon McCarthy
11 IP, 12 K, 4.91 ERA...Expect the ERA to be fairly high all year. Only add McCarthy if you can withstand the ERA hit, and are in need of Wins and Strikeouts.

Aaron Laffey
Just called up to take the place of Scott Lewis, Laffey is a guy that the Tribe would love to take over Lewis' rotation spot. So far, so good with 5 K's in 5.1 innings in his first start.

Sidney Ponson
The guy who knocked everyone's socks off in the World baseball Classic has pitched fairly well for the Royals after a rough spring. Ponson is another one to avoid unless you are desperate for a starter.

Robinson Tejada
When he throws strikes, he can be lethal. So far, Tejada has 7 K's in 3.2 innings to go along with no earned runs. He may find himself in the rotation if he keeps it up.

Mark Lowe
He looked so good two years ago, and then the injuries, and now he is finally getting his form back. He's got 6 K's in 5.1 innings, but will probably be relegated to middle relief for awhile.

Scott Linebrink
The quintessential middle relief guy, Linebrink has a 0.00 ERA in 4 innings to go with 6 K's.

Report: Angels' Nick Adenhart Killed in Auto Crash

2009-04-09T08:31:00.000-07:00

A report early this morning says that Angels rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart was killed in a car crash early Thursday morning. TMZ reports that Adenhart's sports car was struck when a van ran through a red light at an intersection, sending the car into a light pole. The driver of the van then sped off, turning the accident into a felony hit-and-run. The driver of the van was later apprehended.

The accident came just hours after Adenhart's start against the Oakland A's in which he pitched six strong innings. It was just his fourth major league start.

Adenhart's death has apparently been confirmed by his family, as well as local news sources.

Here is a link to Halo's Heaven, the Angels' blog.

2009 American League Hitter Values

2009-03-05T11:38:00.000-08:00

Here are my Roto Player Values for the American League for 2009. I've included the top 135 players (or so) with values based on a 12-team AL-only roto-style league with a draft cap of $300. You'll need to adjust the values to fit your league.

Comments on these values are below the player names:

Name --- POS --- Team --- VALUE
Sizemore, Grady OF CLE 41 (cream of the crop)
Rodriguez, Alex 3B NYY 35 (dropped from 39 due to hip injury)
Upton, B.J. OF TB 34 (watch injuries)
Crawford, Carl OF TB 31
Holliday, Matt OF OAK 31 (Playing in Oakland could drag down stats)
Roberts, Brian 2B BAL 30 (Trade rumors always persist)
Cabrera, Miguel 3B DET 29 (Started slow in '08, expect a good year)
Kinsler, Ian 2B TEX 29
Teixeira, Mark 1B NYY 29 (Adjusting to NY can be difficult)
Ortiz, David DH BOS 28 (Age, injuries may slow production)
Abreu, Bobby OF LAA 28
Markakis, Nick OF BAL 27 (One of the best young players, still improving)
Bay, Jason OF BOS 27
Suzuki, Ichiro OF SEA 27 (skills starting to decline)
Hamilton, Josh OF TEX 27 (injury watch)
Granderson, Curtis OF DET 27
Morneau, Justin 1B MIN 27
Thome, Jim 1B CHW 26
Figgins, Chone 3B LAA 26 (If he can stay healthy)
Rios, Alexis OF TOR 26
Quentin, Carlos OF CHW 25 (Monster bat returns from injury)
Youkilis, Kevin 1B BOS 24 (Personal favorite)
Damon, Johnny OF NYY 24
Burrell, Pat OF TB 24 (He should crush AL pitching)
Longoria, Evan 3B TB 24
Ellsbury, Jacoby OF BOS 23
Hunter, Torii OF LAA 23
Guerrero, Vladimir OF LAA 23 (age has not diminshed his skills yet)
Pedroia, Dustin 2B BOS 23
Pena, Carlos 1B TB 22
Span, Denard OF MIN 22
Young, Michael 3B TEX 22
Jeter, Derek SS NYY 22
Swisher, Nick OF NYY 22 (Maybe too high if he platoons)
Beltre, Adrian 3B SEA 22
Gordon, Alex 3B KC 22 (another monster bat waiting to explode)
Gomez, Carlos OF MIN 21
Cabrera, Orlando SS OAK 21 (I would probably move him down into the teens)
Mauer, Joe C MIN 21
Ramirez, Alexei SS CHW 21
Drew, J.D. OF BOS 20
Dye, Jermaine OF CHW 20
Ordonez, Magglio OF DET 20
Peralta, Jhonny 2B CLE 20
Wells, Vernon OF TOR 19 (drop because of injuries)
Konerko, Paul 1B CHW 19
Choo, Shin-Soo OF CLE 19
Huff, Aubrey DH BAL 19
Giambi, Jason 1B OAK 19
Murphy, David OF TEX 18 (Was '08 a fluke?)
Crisp, Coco OF KC 18
Cust, Jack OF OAK 18 (On base and power machine)
Guillen, Carlos SS DET 18
Davis, Chris 3B TEX 17 (Move him up your board)
Iwamura, Akinori 2B TB 17
Polanco, Placido 2B DET 16
Martinez, Victor C CLE 16
Cano, Robinson 2B NYY 16
Posada, Jorge C NYY 16
Young, Delmon OF MIN 16 (Superstar tools, waiting to happen)
DeRosa, Mark 3B CLE 16
Millar, Kevin 1B TOR 16
DeJesus, David OF KC 16
Ellis, Mark 2B OAK 16
Matsui, Hideki OF NYY 16 (Starting to fade)
Guillen, Jose OF KC 15
Overbay, Lyle 1B TOR 15 (I expect him to be dealt soon)
Casilla, Alexi 2B MIN 15
Jones, Adam OF BAL 15
Kubel, Jason OF MIN 15
Lopez, Jose 2B SEA 15
Sheffield, Gary OF DET 15
Jacobs, Mike 1B KC 15
Lugo, Julio SS BOS 14
Hafner, Travis DH CLE 14 (Can he bounce back from injuries?)
Nady, Xavier OF NYY 14
Mora, Melvin 3B BAL 14
Teahen, Mark OF KC 14 (Not too high on him)
Cabrera, Asdrubal SS CLE 14
Rolen, Scott 3B TOR 14
Cuddyer, Michael OF MIN 13
Bartlett, Jason SS TB 13
Lowell, Mike 3B BOS 13
Francisco, Ben OF CLE 13
Scott, Luke OF BAL 13 (Thunderous bat)
Aviles, Mike SS KC 13 (Not sure if he can ever duplicate his '08 season)
Inge, Brandon 3B DET 13 (If he qualifies at catcher, a good pick)
Cabrera, Melky OF NYY 13
Garko, Ryan 1B CLE 12
Bautista, Jose 3B TOR 12
Jones, Andruw OF TEX 12 (strikeout machine)
Crosby, Bobby SS OAK 12
Griffey Jr., Ken OF SEA 12
Punto, Nick SS MIN 11
Cruz, Nelson OF TEX 11
Betancourt, Yuniesky SS SEA 11
Varitek, Jason C BOS 11
Gutierrez, Franklin OF SEA 10
Butler, Billy OF KC 10
Pierzynski, A.J. C CHW 10
Napoli, Mike C LAA 10
Izturis, Maicer 3B LAA 10
Kendrick, Howie 2B LAA 10 (If he stays healthy, he will be worth $20)
Matthews Jr., Gary OF LAA 9
Lind, Adam OF TOR 9
Hill, Aaron 2B TOR 9
Thames, Marcus OF DET 9
Carroll, Jamey 2B CLE 9
Harris, Brendan SS MIN 8
Scutaro, Marco SS TOR 8
Lowrie, Jed SS BOS 8
Saltalamacchia, Jarrod C TEX 8 (Breakout in '09?)
Gardner, Brett OF NYY 8
Joyce, Matt OF TB 8
Boggs, Brandon OF TEX 8
Blalock, Hank 3B TEX 8 (Could be much higher if production returns)
Davis, Rajai OF OAK 7 (Cheap speed)
Olivo, Miguel C KC 7
Grudzielanek, Mark 2B FA 7
Buck, John C KC 7
Gross, Gabe OF TB 7
Crede, Joe 3B MIN 7
Navarro, Dioner C TB 7
Laird, Gerald C DET 7
Aybar, Erick SS LAA 7
Wigginton, Ty 3B BAL 7
Suzuki, Kurt C OAK 7
Izturis, Cesar 3B BAL 7
Zaun, Gregg C BAL 7
Willits, Reggie OF LAA 6 (Tons of speed)
Freel, Ryan 2B BAL 6
Shoppach, Kelly C CLE 6
Byrd, Marlon OF TEX 6
Kotsay, Mark OF BOS 6
Teagarden, Taylor C TEX 6
Barton, Daric 1B OAK 6
Catalanotto, Frank OF TEX 5
Chavez, Eric 3B OAK 5
Buck, Travis OF OAK 5
Gload, Ross OF KC 5
Dellucci, David OF CLE 5
Betemit, Wilson 3B CHW 5
Bloomquist, Willie SS KC 5

First, watch out for injuries. A-Rod's hip bears monitoring, along with any other premium players such as Upton, Quentin or Ortiz. Identify the low-risk, high-value players and go after them (Cabrera, Sizemore and Teixeira look good). Holliday may see a drop off in value in Oakland, so I'd stay away from drafting him for now.

Among the next group, I like Youkilis, Guerrero and Longoria as guys who could outperform their expectations this year. The Phillies figured out how to pitch to Longoria in the World Series last year, so watch the Rays this spring to see if he's made any adjustments.

Vernon Wells is too high at $19. I would bump him down to $13 because of his injuries and decline in production. Chris Davis is probably too low at $17, so bump him up to the low-20's. Delmon Young didn't display much power last year, but he should be capable of hitting 30 homers someday. He might be a good sleeper in 2009 if you can keep him for multiple seasons.

If you need a cheap power source, Mike Jacobs should come with a fairly low price tag, but hit 25 homers this year. I also like Xavier Nady in New York and Ben Francisco in Cleveland as mid-range guys who could really shine this year.

Near the bottom of the salary barrel, Adam Lind could be a terror for the Jays. Joe Crede looks like another low-round guy who could pay dividends. I think Dioner Navarro overachieved last year, but if your league rewards walks or on-base average, don't ignore Greg Zaun.

Last, if you need some speed, consider taking a flyer on Ryan Freel of the Orioles. He's burned up the basepaths in the National League for years. He's been injury-prone, so make sure he's healthy before paying much for him.

Maybe Next Year

2008-11-24T10:34:00.000-08:00

After winning my Roto-style, AL-only league in 2007, I had to settle for 2nd place in '08. After spending much of the season in either fourth or fifth place, my squad put together a nice run to challenge the leaders. However, we couldn't catch the top team, and settled for next-best, finishing 3 points behind the winners, and just 1/2 point ahead of the 3rd place team.

My team was really strong in the pitching categories, but offense was a challenge all year. We redrafted Chone Figgins as our primary source of speed. When he got injured early on, we fell 20 steals behind the 9th place team in that category. After his return, we made up a lot of ground, but only finished with 2 points in the steals category. That made it much more difficult to put together enough points in the other stats to make a run at first place.

Our pitching staff was dominant, finishing first or second in Wins, Saves, ERA and WHIP. However, we decided to go with only 4 starting pitchers at times (due to injuries), and that hampered us in the Strikeout department, where we only finished seventh. I love piecing together a starting staff of low-priced pitchers, and it worked again for me in '08. I kept Jeremy Guthrie, who was good until he got injured. I also picked up Gavin Floyd and Glen Perkins off the waiver wire early on, and added Mark Buehrle after his slow start. I also had Joe Saunders at $1 from the previous year. I had more than enough bullpen, with Mariano Rivera and George Sherill garnering a bunch of saves. Jensen Lewis replaced Sherrill, and Joey Devine and Frank Francisco tossed in a few saves as well.

Offensively, we were above average in everything but steals. However, we weren't great in any category, with our highest finish being 4th. My two biggest regrets of the season were keeping Miguel Batista over Cliff Lee --- and drafting Alexei Ramirez and then dumping him in April to keep Juan Uribe. Ramirez could have potentially given me the couple of extra points I needed to win. My $2 catchers Miguel Olivo and Dioner Navarro both overachieved somewhat, although I think Olivo can match his '08 stats next year, since he's been promised the starting job. Mike Aviles, Brian Buscher, Marcus Thames and Adam Lind were all nice free agent pickups, but the team lacked enough power to contend for the top in Home Runs and RBI.

Even though we came up short in '08, I stand by my philosophy of building a cheap starting pitching staff, paying top dollar for one established closer and base stealer, and then spending the rest on offense. Starting pitching is the easiest commodity to acquire in most leagues. In fact, you can often build a tremendous rotation from the free agent wire if you can pick up some players who start out poorly.

That's it! I'm just hoping my AL players don't get traded to the other league before next season!

Royals and Marlins Swap Players

2008-10-30T12:39:00.000-07:00

On the day the 2008 World Series ended, a couple of young teams tried to better themselves. The Florida Marlins sent power-hitting first baseman Mike Jacobs to the Kansas City Royals for reilief pitcher Leo Nunez.

Jacobs came to the Marlins three years ago from the Mets, and hit 32 home runs in 2008. Despite the big power numbers, his batting average was under .250, and that probably won't get any better in the cavernous confines in KC. Jacobs, who just turned 28, joins a team that already has a number of similar players who are best at either first base or DH, including Ross Gload, Ryan Shealy and Billy Butler. Look for one or more of those guys to be traded, although it would be a surprise if Butler was dealt, as he has the most upside of those three. With a lineup including Alex Gordon, Jose Guillen, Butler and now Jacobs, the Royals look to improve an offense that has been perenially dismal.

Nunez had an ERA under 3.00 for the Royals last year, and the Marlins figure to turn him into a setup man or potential closer. The Marlins are a smart organization, and I think they realize that guys who put up Jacobs' kind of numbers are easier to come by than quality pitchers. This may be a trade that helps both teams, but I see this as part of a Florida rebuilding effort similar to what occured in Tampa this year.

Done With Dunn?

2008-06-19T08:48:00.000-07:00

A couple of months ago, in my article on the Toronto Blue Jays, I mentioned Reds' slugger Adam Dunn as a good fit for the Jays' cleanup spot. Apparently, I was not the only one who thought that way, as trade rumors for Dunn have been heard north of the border. However, Jays' GM JP Riccardi went the extra mile to quell such talk, saying that Dunn is a lifetime .230 hitter who strikes out a lot. He even went so far as to say that Dunn doesn't like baseball that much, and that the team does not want Adam Dunn.

This is the problem with Riccardi and his inability to craft an offense for Toronto that will help the team compete with Boston and New York. Either he is bluffing in a major way (which would only serve to tick Dunn off) or he simply does not realize that Dunn is an offensive force despite the strikeouts. Look at the Oakland A's and the offesnive production that they get out of Jack Cust who is somewhat of a lesser man's Adam Dunn. The Blue Jays seem set on filling their lineup with guys like David Eckstein, Lyle Overbay and Joe Inglett. Until they see that high batting average does not correlate well to winning, they will wallow in mediocrity.

American League Buy-Low Candidates

2008-05-20T10:08:00.000-07:00

The 2008 Fantasy Baseball season is a little over 1/4 finished, and some players are still not hitting their weight. Let's take a look at some guys to target in your trade efforts over the next week or two:

Nick Swisher, OF, CHW
Moving to a new team and hitter's park hasn't helped Swish one bit. Not only is his batting average terrible at .213, but his power numbers are way down. There's no way that a guy as young as he is with his great batting eye will continue to struggle. See if you can parlay those struggles and maybe injury fears into getting a cheap deal on him.

Travis Hafner, 1B/DH, CLE
Pronk is off to a slow start (.228 avg, 20 RBI), but don't let that fool you. When he gets going, he can carry a team (see David Ortiz the last two weeks). If you have an open DH slot, Hafner is the perfect guy to trade for right now.

Jhonny Peralta, SS, CLE
Another Indians hitter whose average is down in the dumps, Peralta is a talented player who is in no danger of losing his starting gig. He does have 8 HR to go along with his .225 batting average, so you might not be able to pry him away from another owner for cheap. Expect .280 with good power the rest of the way.

Evan Longoria, 3B, TAM
Longoria may always hit for a low average. However, he has not yet scratched the surface on his tremendous power yet in the bigs. He will definitely put up 40+ home runs someday, and you want him on your team when he does.

G. Matthews Jr, OF, LAA
Whispers of alleged past steroid use will dog Matthews whenever he slumps. He's hitting .223 so far this year, and some might feel that his past performance was illegally enhanced. It's far more likely that he's just off to a slow start, and will start producing very soon.

K. Johjima, C, SEA
Having lost his hitting touch early in 2008, Johjima has started to look better at the dish. He should be one of the better hitting AL catchers the rest of the way.

DAVIDs AND GOLIATHs (Part 2)

2008-04-29T13:07:00.000-07:00

The Toronto Blue Jays

Of the three Davids, Toronto most resembles a Goliath. They have more talent than the Devil Rays and Orioles, and consistently spend more money than either club. Their biggest problem is that they play in a division with two elite teams. In 2005, they scored 70 more runs than their opponents, which would normally get them within striking distance of a playoff spot. Yet, the Jays finished 80-82, only winning six of 18 games against the Yankees. When it became apparent that Toronto needed to do more to compete, they went out and signed young hurler A.J. Burnett and slugging third baseman Troy Glaus. In 2006, they finished 87-75, still not good enough to make the playoffs. Last year, they posted another winning record, but were shut out of the playoff picture once again.

2007 AL Ranks: ERA 2nd, OBP 12th, SLG 8th

The current roster boasts a former Cy-Young award winner (Roy Halladay), who is part of a good, fairly young rotation. The bullpen is not great, but its shortcomings can be overcome by good starting pitching and productive offense. The Blue Jays’ hitting leaves something to be desired, especially the ability to get on base. The injury to Troy Glaus last year severely hampered the power number of this offense. They have replaced Glaus with former Cardinals’ third-sacker Scott Rolen, who is already on the DL. The Jays don’t have much speed, but brought in shortstop David Eckstein to swipe a few bases.

Starting Rotation: The Blue Jays have a very good nucleus of starting pitching. Roy Halladay is a consistent performer who keeps his ERA around 3.60. Aside from missing time in 2004 and 2005 due to injuries, he is a durable ace. Burnett is a viable second starter (career ERA 3.79) when he’s healthy, but he has pitched 200 innings in a season only twice. His injury-plagued career makes it necessary for Toronto to keep another decent starter in the fold. Both Halladay and Burnett are 30 years old, so the window of opportunity with these players will probably close in the next three to four years. 26 year old Dustin McGowan turned in a 4.08 ERA in his first full season, throwing 170 innings last year. Shaun Marcum posted a 4.13 mark in 159 innings, and Jesse Litsch tossed 111 quality innings last year, adding a 3.81 ERA to the mix. That’s really an outstanding rotation from top to bottom that should continue to improve. One area of weakness is that the rotation contains no left-handers. It’s not a major concern, as long as they are succeeding, but opponents can stack their lineups with left-handed hitters to take advantage of all the righties.

Bullpen: The Toronto bullpen was in pretty good shape a couple of years ago, but injuries to closer B.J. Ryan and general ineffectiveness have plagued the pen as a whole. Casey Janssen impressed last year, but is due to miss the 2008 season with a bum arm. Jeremy Accardo is sharing closing duties until Ryan gets back into form, but he is really better suited for setup work. Guys like Scott Downs, Brian Wolfe, Brian Tallet and Jason Frasor provide good stability. It’s a fairly young bullpen, with only one player (Downs) over age 30, so these players should be contributing to the Jays’ success for a few more years. Getting a healthy and effective Ryan back will be the key, as everyone else will be able to slide into more familiar roles.

Lineup: (Note - This article was written before the Jays dumped Frank Thomas, and he was rightly snatched up by the Oakland A's)
Here’s where the fun begins. The Blue Jays must decide what direction to take with their offense because this group doesn’t do anything particularly well. Frank Thomas embodies the type of player that the Jays should target, but he’s 40 years old. Toronto can’t compete with the Yankees or Red Sox on this front, and will have to hope the young players like Alex Rios and Aaron Hill continue to improve, or they’ll have to look elsewhere. Let’s examine the current lineup:

Player Proj. OB% Proj. SLG %
Eckstein .360 .370
Stewart .345 .395
Rios .360 .505
Wells .330 .470
Thomas .360 .460
Hill .340 .470
Overbay .350 .450
Rolen .350 .440
Zaun .340 .400

Last year’s On Base Percentage was .327, which ranked 12th in the AL. This year’s group could push .340, provided that Wells, Overbay and Rolen bounce back from bad years. The Big Hurt also needs to keep his production up, as well as Shannon Stewart. For a catcher, Zaun provides a good OBP. Hill and Rios do not draw a lot of walks, so the only way they will probably raise their On Base Percentage is by getting more hits. If the team can get on base at a .340 clip, that would put them in the middle of the pack in the American League.

Of equal concern is Toronto’s Slugging Percentage (.419), which ranked 8th last year. Again, if the big bats produce (that’s a big IF), they could finish around .430, which might place them 5th or so. Also, on the bench is Matt Stairs, who can provide some pop against right-handers.

I see this group falling a bit short, due to age and injuries. They really need to relegate the Stewart/Stairs duo to the bench, and find a permanent solution that provides more consistent offense. Down on the farm is outfielder Travis Snider, who might be a year away. Adam Lind might be an option, but he struggled in 2007. Other than that, the Jays will have to look outside the organization for help. Adam Dunn (career .381 OBP, .517 SLG) could be acquired in a trade if Toronto would part with a young pitcher or two. Dunn’s been pretty consistent throughout his career, and could DH or play first. Also available is free agent Kenny Lofton, who would be an upgrade at the leadoff spot and in the outfield. By adding these two guys, and taking out Stewart/Stairs and Overbay, the required batting numbers are taking shape.

This team is pretty close to being a contender. With a revamping of the batting order, they could conceivably challenge for a playoff spot in the next year or two.

Edit: With the departure of Thomas, I see the need for at least two new offensive starters to raise the OBP and SLG. That's hard to accomplish in one season. To me, this offense looks like it will be high on batting average, but low on the other stats that correlate well to winning.

DAVIDs AND GOLIATHs (Part 1)

2008-04-15T09:00:00.000-07:00

DAVIDs AND GOLIATHs

(Or) HOW THE JAYS, RAYS AND O’S ARE TRYING TO COMPETE WITH THE YANKEES AND RED SOX

In a perfect world, everyone would be equal. The playing field would always be level, and no special privileges would be given to the elite. Hmmm. Then again, there are certain levels of joy and satisfaction resulting from those situations in which the underdog defies seemingly insurmountable odds to defeat his adversary. The NCAA’s March Madness is a perfect example of this. We all want to see the “Cinderella” teams knock off the top seeds. It makes for good entertainment to have powerful teams to root for or against, whether or not those teams seem to have undeserved advantages.

The Bible tells the story of young David, a lowly shepherd boy who risked his life for his nation. Armed with just a sling, he volunteered to fight the towering Goliath, a massive, mocking giant clad in armor. When David took down Goliath with a well-placed stone to the forehead, a rejuvenated Israel routed the Philistines, David eventually became king, and history was changed forever.

In Major League Baseball, there are Davids and Goliaths. Because there is no salary cap, the franchises that have the most power also have an uncompetitive advantage on the playing field. The teams from New York (Mets and Yankees), the Boston Red Sox, and Chicago’s White Sox and Cubs are the “Goliaths”. They have huge fan bases, high ticket proceeds, lucrative TV deals, tons of marketing revenue, and thus have rich owners who can afford to outbid any of the other teams for top talent. The remaining teams are the “Davids”. Because of the financial inequality of teams in the league, they are competing at a serious disadvantage.

The American League’s Eastern Division boasts two of the Goliaths, the Red Sox and the Yankees. In the last 10 seasons, only Boston and New York have won the division crown, with the Yanks finishing first nine times (Boston finished first in 2007). Those two teams have also taken five of the ten World Series Championships in that tenure. To illustrate the slanted playing field, one only has to look at the (total roster) salaries for those teams in 2008:

New York Yankees $209,081,579
Boston Red Sox $133,440,037
Toronto Blue Jays $98,641,957
Baltimore Orioles $67,196,248
Tampa Bay Devil Rays $43,820,598

The top team, New York, is in a class by itself. Owner George Steinbrenner has outspent his nearest competitors by over 50%. Imagine running a diner, and only cooking with imitation ingredients, while the restaurant down the street is using the real thing. Compared to the Yankees, that’s what every other team in Major League Baseball is doing. In fact, the Yankees are paying third baseman Alex Rodriguez more than the Florida Marlins’ entire roster is earning in 2008. Of the thirty baseball teams, Rodriguez’ salary exceeds 30% of the entire payroll for 23 of those clubs.

Although the Boston Red Sox are a true Goliath, their 2007 division title was their first in many years. It might be more correct to label them a “lesser Goliath”. The Red Sox have done their best to keep pace with the Yankees, placing in the Top 8 for team salaries each of the last ten years. The Sox’ team salary has been second only to the Yankees each year from 2004 – 2007, and also in ’01 and ’02. While the Yankees have outpaid Boston for much of the game’s top talent, the Sox have been wiser, avoiding some of the aged veterans that the Steinbrenners seem to covet. Boston’s shrewd roster management has paid off in World Series titles in 2004 and 2007.

The Toronto Blue Jays enjoyed great success in the 1990’s, winning two championships. However, since the 1992-93 campaigns, the franchise has struggled to put a winner back on the field. Recently, they have finished above .500 more often than not, but the Jays cannot seem to finish within ten games of the Yankees or gain a wild card spot. For the last 10 years, Toronto has typically placed in the middle of baseball’s salary scale, ranging from 10th highest to 25th.

For the past decade or so, the Baltimore Orioles have been best known as a team that annually underachieves, spending big money on players who quickly make the front office regret it. After they won the division in 1997, Baltimore has finished 4th nine times and third once. Obviously, that hasn’t gotten them into the playoffs, and O’s fans must be wondering when the next post-season appearance will be. Baltimore had the highest paid roster in 1998, but has drifted down to the middle of the pack since then. Last year’s fourth place finishers “earned” $93 million.

Look up futility in the dictionary, and you’re likely to see a Devil Ray. Tampa Bay has finished last place in the AL East every season except one. In 2004, they won 70 games for the only time in franchise history and finished fourth. The franchise winning percentage hovers around 40%, and that makes the team a really bad draw. However, plans for a badly-needed new stadium are being drawn up, and an influx of young talent might be making Rays’ fans excited for the next few years. The Tampa franchise has at least not spent much money, placing last or next-to-last on the payroll scale for the last six years.

In light of the disparity of resources, talent and fan interest, how can the Davids in the AL East beat the Goliaths? How can the Orioles, Blue Jays and Devil Rays possibly rise up and challenge the Bronx Bombers and BoSox for those elusive playoff spots? Let’s start by drawing up a general blueprint for success, and applying it to each of the three David teams.

First, let’s examine the correlation between various statistics and actually making the playoffs, which is the primary goal of our three David teams. Obviously, the secret to winning baseball games lies in scoring more runs than your opponent. Do this enough times, and the result will be a winning record, with a potential playoff berth. Since 2004, the four American league playoff teams have scored an average of 120 runs more than their opponents during the season. This works out to a difference of about .74 runs per game. Those are big numbers. The worst playoff team statistically during that stretch was the 2006 Oakland A’s, who only managed a positive differential of 44 runs. However, the low differential can be partially explained by the fact that there are only four teams in the AL West, which makes it easier to make the playoffs. That’s a luxury our AL East teams don’t have, since the division has five teams. It looks like the 2004 Minnesota Twins were the next lowest-ranking playoff team during that time period, so let’s use their run differential of 65 as the baseline for realistically challenging for a playoff spot.

To build a blueprint for success, we need to discover what a playoff team looks like. After reviewing the team rankings for the past four years in various categories, an old adage holds true: Pitching Wins Ballgames. The correlation between pitching and winning games is stronger than that of hitting, base running or fielding. The most important single statistic turns out to be ERA. The sixteen playoff teams since 2004 have averaged an AL ERA rank of 4.3 (out of 14 teams), compared to an average slugging rank of 5.7, and a 6.3 average stolen base ranking. The importance of pitching is further illustrated by looking at the average ranks for the sixteen playoff teams in other categories: Walks Issued (4.6), Home Runs Allowed (4.6), and Strikeouts (5.1). On the offensive side, On Base Average is the most important stat (4.8), with Batting Average (5.1) and Slugging Percentage showing less of a correlation to winning.

The tie between getting effective pitching and winning games is not quite strong enough to ignore the other facets of the game. However, in building our model of a playoff team, we can confidently say that building a good pitching staff is our top priority. Since the starting pitchers contribute more to a team’s ERA (innings pitched) than the bullpen does, our David teams need to address the rotation first and foremost. This will give the Rays, Jays and O’s the best chance to compete.

To find an existing model of our “dream team”, we have to look back a couple of years. Prior to the 2000 season, the Oakland A’s had not made the playoffs for 7 years. Then they inserted three guys into their rotation by the names of Hudson, Mulder and Zito (Tim Hudson actually started some games in 1999). Known forever after as the Big Three, these players became the cornerstone of the A’s success for the next seven years. From 2000 to 2006, the A’s finished first or second in their division each year, winning the division four times, and securing the AL wild card berth once. The team never ranked lower than fourth in ERA during those seven seasons. (Although the A’s traded Mark Mulder away before the 2005 season, they got pitcher Danny Haren in return, who was a catalyst in the rotation for the next two seasons.)

The A’s represent the model for what the David teams are trying to become. Oakland is a small-market, low budget franchise who must make superior roster decisions to have a chance to compete. They added three starting pitchers who each contributed 200 quality innings to their team for several years. The effect was that Oakland had a top-notch ERA, and this propelled them into position to compete every year. Keeping these three pitchers in the fold meant that they could supplement the pitching staff with good, but not great players mostly acquired in trades or free agency. Although the Big Three were homegrown, i.e. developed in the A’s farm system, there is not much evidence to support the idea that developing players is more essential to winning than acquiring those players via outside acquisitions.

Having established that starting pitching is our top priority, let’s look at the importance of the bullpen. The pitching statistics for the A’s from 2000 to 2006 reveal that the starting rotation had much more to do with the team’s low ERA than the ‘pen did. For example, in 2003, Oakland went 96-66. The team ERA was 3.63, ranking first in the American League. Starting pitchers contributed 1018 innings with an ERA of 3.62. The relievers compiled a 3.65 ERA in just 423 innings. Thus, the bullpen had less than half of the impact on ERA that the rotation did. In other years during their streak of success, the importance of the bullpen fluctuated slightly depending on whether the ERA was higher or lower than that of the starting pitching, but it should never be considered that the bullpen is just as important as the rotation. This is a common misconception that you will hear around baseball today. Even if the bullpen outperforms the rotation substantially, as was the case with last year’s Red Sox (3.10 ERA to the starters’ 4.21), it is the effectiveness of the starting pitcher which determines how much the bullpen must be used.

Based on the category rankings for teams that made the playoffs which we discussed above, it is important that we develop a priority list based on the correlations between those statistics and winning. We have established that the rotation is of prime importance. We also know from statistical evidence that the bullpen carries around 40-60% of the importance of the rotation. Since there is only a slight correlation between base running and winning, we can move speed to the bottom of our priority list. Defense is another area that does not show a strong tie to winning games. (Guess who had the majors’ best fielding percentage in 2007? Baltimore.) Therefore, I would rank the priorities of our roster assembly as follows:

1- Starting pitching
2- Hitting (emphasis: On Base Percentage over Slugging Percentage)
3- Bullpen
4- Defense
5- Speed (all-around)

This agrees with the method the A’s used to attain their success. Those teams combined low ERA and high OBP to win games, and were average or lower in other areas. As an example, the A’s 2006 squad placed 4th in ERA and 7th in OBP. In the other major categories mentioned earlier, they were 9th or lower.

It’s not enough to identify our priorities. It’s also necessary to construct a business plan of sorts. We’ll need to identify the current state of each roster, what kind of players each team needs to target, how much each team can spend, and how long it will take to become competitive. Bad teams stay bad because they don’t have a plan that makes realistic sense.

Consider the Baltimore Orioles, who have not made the playoffs in 10 years. Despite ranking average or higher in team salary, the O’s don’t win an average or better number of games. Looking at some recent history, we can see why the Orioles have maintained their mediocrity. Baltimore brass has repeatedly acquired players for large sums of cash who did not perform as expected.

2007 Jaret Wright ($7 million), Kris Benson ($7 million), Danys Baez ($6 million)
2006 Kris Benson ($8 million), Javy Lopez ($9 million), Bruce Chen ($4 million), Rodrigo Lopez ($4 million)
2005 Sammy Sosa ($17 million), Sidney Ponson ($8.5 million)
2004 David Segui ($7 million), Omar Daal ($4.5 million)
2003 Albert Belle ($13 million), Scott Erickson ($7 million)

Now, every team has injuries, and every team gets players that don’t perform well. But, as the above illustrates, the O’s have developed a bad trend into a way of life. They consistently pay too much for players that are either past their prime, have questionable talent, or are huge injury risks. This is the kind of behavior that a team must avoid to rise up from second-division finishes.

(In Part 2 of DAVIDs and GOLIATHs, I will examine the Toronto Blue Jays chances for success.)

Week One is In the Books

2008-04-08T15:59:00.000-07:00

The big story in 2008 Major League Baseball is the Detroit Tigers. How can a team laden with hitting stars and some very good starting pitchers be 0-7? The Tigers are not hitting a lick, and while the pitching hasn't been awful, it hasn't been that good either. The lineup is in a huge funk right now, and desperately needs to get Curtis Granderson back. It's still veeery early, and this team will rebound, but you have to wonder if the slow start will keep them out of the playoffs in the end. I've got Miguel Cabrera (.100) and Placido Polanco (.115) killing my batting average, but like I said - It's Early.

In Cleveland, the Tribe fans are licking their wounds after Joe Bo gave up a monstrous grand slam to Torii Hunter last night, costing Cleveland a game that many other closers would have locked down. For Borowski owners, it's not time to panic yet, as the Indians have been very patient with him over the last two years. If he continues to struggle, the Tribe would rather keep Rafael Betancourt in a setup role and use either Rafael Perez or Masa Kobayashi in the 9th. Kobayashi has struggled a bit early, so keep your eye on the Indians pen and act quickly when you hear any news.

The Baltimore Orioles are off to a hot start, but don't expect it to last. The team just doesn't have the quality pitching that is necessary for a season-long run at the playoffs. Luke Scott has been a monster so far, hitting over .500 in the first 7 games.

With Brad Lidge having pitched the last couple of games for the Phillies, Flash Gordon picked up his first save of the season last night. The Philly closing situation bears watching, as both guys can be prone to big struggles, but can also be very effective, as history has shown. I like Lidge if he has his head on straight. However, Philadelphia is not always the best place for that to happen.

I also take back what I said about George Sherrill not being ready for the closer role in Baltimore. I actually drafted him for $12 because he was the only closer going so cheap. So far, I'm enjoying his 4 saves and microscopic WHIP.

Roto Tidbits - Opening Day 2008

2008-04-01T12:22:00.000-07:00

Here are some stats or other little quirky details that you probably didn't know and might want to consider for 2008. Pay no attention to the picture, as the Yankees were rained out...

Livan Hernandez beat the Angels in his Minnesota debut yesterday, scattering 7 hits over seven quality innings. Did you know that Livan's career ERA indoors is just 3.31, while outdoors it's 4.44? I'll bet the Twins knew that when they acquired him...Also, his best career month is May, when he sports a 3.78 ERA. In June, it goes up to over five.

Franklin Gutierrez went yard yesterday to help give the tribe a wild 10-8 win over the Chisox. He should see some opportunities in Cleveland's outfield this season, and Monday's dinger won't hurt his chances for more playing time. In limited action (48 AB), he has a dismal .188 batting average indoors, but he hits .284 outdoors, where most of his games are played. He also hits lefties at a .314 clip.

Mariner DH Jose Vidro went 0-3 yesterday in the M's win over Texas. However, he is normally a quick starter. Vidro hits .310 for his career before the All-Star break, with his best months being April and June. After the break, his average falls to .292, still not too shabby, but June might be a good time to deal him away if you have him on your roster.

Carlos Silva is a new acquisition for Seattle in '08. It is rare for a pitcher to make so much dough on so little talent. Opposing batters have feasted on Silva to the tune of a .299 career average. Even in 2005, when he had a 3.40 ERA, opposing hitters swatted .290 against him. How does he do it? Well, you probably don't want him on your fantasy team, but if you're stuck with him, know that his career first half ERA is 4.57, but it drops to 4.00 after the break. By then you'll be out of the race anyways, so it won't matter much.

The 2008 Draft

2008-03-27T10:25:00.000-07:00

My AL-only roto league is having its draft this Friday and Saturday. I tend to be ultra-prepared for any fantasy draft, shunning fantasy sports magazines for my own projections and valuations. For instance, this year I have a spreadsheet with 2007 stats, 2008 projections and valuations, a minor league list, printouts by position, and position eligibilty charts. I am also running the draft, so I will be entering picks and tracking team rosters. It makes for a fun, crazy, tiring couple of days.

With two games (in Japan) already in the books, guys who have performed well so far will probably be bid up disproportionately. Rich Harden might go for $19 instead of $13. Jack Hannahan will be on every team's radar, based on his early dinger. Huston Street might be obtained at 70% of his normal salary based on one lousy appearance. I will try to be a smart owner and ignore the early Red Sox/A's results, and focus on traditional patterns, such as Harden's arm falling off, and Street's phenomenal ERA and WHIP numbers.

I go into this draft as the defending champion, and also carrying the lowest salary into the draft. I dropped every player from last year's team who I felt was not a huge bargain. I sacrificed guys like Jonny Gomes ($6), A.J. Pierszynski ($10) and Mariano Rivera ($36). In my experience, it's better to have lots of money going in than it is to have a full roster and no cash. I also feel that each open slot is an opportunity to find a bargain, and if you fill that slot with one of your keepers who is not a huge bargain, you are really limiting your options. For example, I let Justin Morneau drop, as his $37 salary could be used to pick up two good players --- maybe Kenji Johjima and Nick Swisher, both of whom are available.

Knowing which positions are lean in talent is a major key to any draft. It looks like there are 7 closers available in our draft, so I won't be going hog-wild spending money on George Sherill. I also see four shortstops valued at over $20, but only six outfielders. You can bet I will be taking a couple of the best outfielders, leaving only the scraps for the other owners. We can keep up to six minor leaguers as well, but I elected to keep only two, hoping to better my farm system in the draft.

I drafted the injured Francisco Liriano last year for $2, and I'm hoping he will pay nice dividends this year, joining a very cheap staff that includes Javier Vazquez ($7), Jarrod Washburn ($2) , Gil Meche ($3) and Shaun Marcum ($6). Other than Meche, I'm not banking on any of those guys repeating their '07 performances, so I will be looking to make some early deals. I also have no returning closer, since Rivera didn't make the cut, so I am going to have to probably pay $25 - $30 for a decent closer, and possibly add a lower-tier guy such as Sherrill or Todd Jones. I punted saves last year with one of my teams when Chris Ray went down, and we finished 8th.

Roto drafts in salary leagues are never boring because if one player gets bid up too high, or ends up going for a baragin, it affects the rest of the draft. On the first day of the '07 draft, our league spent a lot of money for the superstars. That didn't leave much money for the average players, and some good talent ended up being acquired at ridiculous bargain prices. I don't think the same thing will happen this year, but it pays to be flexible. If guys start jumping off the board at higher than expected prices, don't panic. It just means that you will probably get Hank Blalock for $11 later on. You don't want to have more than $5 left at the end of the draft, but you don't want to spend all of your money either, and not be able to grab those $3 bargains at the end.

2008 American League Predictions

2008-03-25T11:52:00.000-07:00

With one game already in the books, here are my 2008 American League predictions:

AL EAST
RED SOX 92-70
YANKEES 89-73
BLUE JAYS 84-78
ORIOLES 77-85
D' RAYS 70-92

AL CENTRAL
INDIANS 94-68
TIGERS 93-69 (wild card)
WHITE SOX 87-75
TWINS 78-84
ROYALS 69-93

AL WEST
ANGELS 89-73
MARINERS 84-78
RANGERS 71-97
A'S 64-98

SYNOPSIS: It looks to me like there won't be any runaway teams this year, with no one poised to crack 95 wins. I think the Indians have the best bullpen in the AL, with the Red Sox a close second. The bullpen has become more important in the last 5 years or so, even possibly more so than the rotation.

I have seen some people picking Tampa Bay to finish in the top 3 in the East, but beyond the top of their rotation, they still don't have enough to compete. Don't write off the Blue Jays this year. With a couple of (good) breaks, they could win a division that the Yankees and 'Sox have dominated for years.

I love the makeup of the Indians this year, but the Tiger offense will give them a run for their money. I still believe that pitching is more important than offense when it come to winning games, and thus, the Tigers will settle for the wild card. My surprise pick is Chicago to win 87 games. They won't make the playoffs, as the two teams ahead of them are too good, but they are better than most of the other teams in the AL.

The Halos will cruise to the West title, but they have some pitching questions and a light-hitting lineup that won't produce a ton of runs. I don't think the Mariners will produce as much offense as last year. Expect the A's to be downright horrible, with no offense and a weaker pitching staff than in years past.

Pre-Season Player Notes

2008-03-19T14:48:00.001-07:00

Here are a few of my thoughts heading into the 2008 MLB season:

Closers - In Baltimore, George Sherrill has been named the closer. While his stats last year were impressive (0.99 WHIP), he only pitched 45 innings. He does not seem to have the closer's mentality that makes guys like Joe Borowski so effective at shutting the door. I could be wrong, but I think Sherrill will struggle in his new role. I've always wanted to see what Jamie Walker could do as a full-time closer. Also, look for Greg Aquino to be a darkhorse in the Orioles' pen this year. As an alternative, if you already have a proven closer, think about picking up Jeremy Accardo as a guy who would get some saves in Toronto if B.J. Ryan goes down.

Devil Rays - While I love what Tampa has done with the top of their rotation (Kazmir, Garza, Shields), the 4 and 5 spots look like a disaster waiting to happen. This team is still at least a couple of years away from contending, and I don't see many wins coming out of those two rotation spots. The bullpen doesn't look any better than it did a year ago, Troy Percival not withstanding. Once you get past the top hitters, the bench is looking very thin, and Baldelli and Floyd are injury-prone, so guys like Eric Hinske will play a lot. If they can stockpile some more talented arms, including some for the 'pen, they will eventually crack the .500 mark. But not this year.
Same thing with the Royals...they have some nice arms at the top of the rotation, but the bullpen looks baaaaad again, and there's not really much offense on the bench. I'd like to see Justin Huber get a nice look this year, as not many of the other bench guys have much potential.

Detroit - The Tigers' lineup is monstrous this year. Someone like Jacque Jones can really benefit from having all those studs around them. You might want to raise his value up just a notch or two, as opposing pitchers will definitely be giving him some pitches to hit. The bullpen is no better than it was a year ago, and I think that Detroit should have addressed this issue rather than giving up all those prospects for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. The 'pen has become arguably the most important facet of a winning team, and was a big reason why the Tigers didn't repeat their playoff appearance from 2006. Thus, the Indians still look like the team to beat in the AL Central.

The M's Offense - Remember last year, when the Mariners were getting all of those clutch hits? Then, around August, the offense seemed to go into shutdown mode. What will this year's offense look like? I would definitely count on less runs scored, and lesser seasons from Vidro and Betancourt. Jose Lopez should return to form, and Brad Wilkerson remains somewhat of a mystery. This was kind of a patchwork group that really performed last year. Don't bank on it happening again in 2008.

Frankie Francisco - Keep an eye on this Ranger pitcher. A couple of years ago, he became semi-famous for throwing a chair at a heckler, and hitting the man's wife instead. Then, he got hurt and missed all of 2005 and most of '06. His numbers last year weren't what they were in '04, but the guy throws 97 MPH and there is not a sure-fire closer in the Texas bullpen. I'm not saying you should spend $15 for him on draft day. Just don't forget about him.

2008 MLB Player Projections

2008-03-18T16:19:00.000-07:00

After scouring the web for some good 2008 player projections, I kept coming across sites that wanted me to pay for their "draft kit". However, I finally stumbled across the following site, which has some pretty darn good projection numbers:
http://www.fantasysportscentral.com/baseball/managerrank.asp?w=5

Ignore their valuations if it doesn't fit your league's system.

--- ENJOY ---

2008 MLB Player Valuation

2008-03-04T08:36:00.000-08:00

I am, by trade, a numbers guy. I love working with spreadsheets and devising complex formulas to determine value and expose weakness. Because of this, I never go into a fantasy draft just "flying by the seat of my pants". I always have a system that values players numerically, whether it makes total sense or not.

For 2008, I have devised a formula that I will use for my AL draft this year. It takes 2008 MLB Player projections, and quantifies them into a dollar amount to fit our league structure. It's not rocket science, but the formula can get a little long. The formula is based on a salary cap of $300, and a roster of 14 hitters and 9 pitchers.
If your cap is different, simply multiply the results by whatever ratio works, i.e. 500/300. It also only projects for the main 10 stat categories: HR, RBI, RUNS, SB, and AVG; WINS, SAVES, STRIKEOUTS, WHIP(ratio), and ERA.

Ok, here's the AL batting formula:

+((HR-13)/3+4+(RBI-65)/8+8+(RUNS-70)/9+8+(SB-8)/2+4)*0.5+((HITS/AB)-0.27)*AB/3

And here's the AL pitching formula:

+((WINS-8)/2+4)+((SAVES-6)/2+2)+((K's-80)/15+5)+((4.3-(EarnedRuns*9/IP))*IP/40)+((1.4-((Hits+Walks)/IP))*IP/12)

Whew!

This should give values based on 2007 performance as follows:

Alex Rodriguez $41
Jose Guillen $20
Curtis Granderson $28
Johnny Damon $18

CC Sabathia $34
Johan Santana $33
J.J. Putz $37
Shaun Marcum $16

The formula does yield some negative values. For instance, based on his 14+ ERA, Chad Orvella gets a $-4 value. These are guys that you did not want on your team last year, as they would only hurt you.

Try out the formulas if you can. It's easiest to use a spreadsheet program, like Excel. I adjust the NL formulas slightly to compensate for the weaker offensive stats, and better pitching stats. You can obtain 2008 player projections from a site like http://www.rotowire.com/ if you don't want to do the projections yourself.

Good luck in 2008!

The Grand Old Game

2008-02-12T13:41:00.000-08:00

I came across some great excerpts from Spalding's Baseball Guide and Official League Book for 1889:

On League Parity:
Now that a club, new to championship honors [New York], has replaced one of the monopolists [Boston and Chicago], the other previously unsuccessful clubs will begin to entertain hopes of being able to "get in at the death," as the fox hunters say, in future pennant races, if not this ensuing year, and thereby a new interest will be imparted to coming campaigns.

On Excessive Drinking (Insert Steroids for 'drinking'):
The evil of drunkenness among the professional teams is one which has grown upon the fraternity until it has become too costly an abuse to be longer tolerated. Drunken professionals should be driven from service just as the crooks of a dozen years ago were, never to be allowed to return. Drunken players are not only a costly drawback to success individually, but they permeate the whole baseball fraternity with a demoralizing influence. The fact is, professional baseball playing has arrived at that point of excellence, and reached so advanced a position in regard to its financial possibilities, that it will no longer pay, in any solitary respect, to allow players of drinking habits in first-class teams.

On Rule Changes:
In 1888 the pitchers were handicapped by the absurd rule which charged runs scored on bases on balls as earned runs, successive bases on balls giving an earned run to the batting side, even in the absence of a single base hit. To estimate a pitcher's skill on such a basis is nonsense.

The rule which puts batsmen out on catches of foul balls, which, since the game originated, has been an unfair rule of play, has seen its best day; and this year the entering wedge to its ultimate disappearance has been driven in, with the practical result of the repeal of the foul tip catch. This improvement, too, is in the line of aiding the batting side, as it gets rid of one of the numerous ways of putting the batsman out.

On Professionalism:
The two great obstacles in the way of the success of the majority of professional ball players are wine and women. The saloon and the brothel are the evils of the baseball world at the present day; and we see it practically exemplified in the failure of noted players to play up to the standard they are capable of were they to avoid these gross evils. One day it is a noted pitcher who fails to serve his club at a critical period of the campaign. Anon, it is the disgraceful escapade of an equally noted umpire. And so it goes from one season to another, at the cost of the loss of thousands of dollars to clubs who blindly shut their eyes to the costly nature of intemperance and dissipation in their ranks. We tell you, gentlemen of the League and Association, the sooner you introduce the prohibition plank in your contracts the sooner you will get rid of the costly evil of drunkenness and dissipation among your players. Club after club have lost championship honors time and again by this evil, and yet they blindly condone these offences season after season. The prohibition rule from April to October is the only practical rule for removing drunkenness in your teams.

On Feats of Ability (Why Don't We Have Throwing Contests Now?)
In 1884, while connected with the Boston Union Association Club, Ed Crane, while in Cincinnati October 12 of that year, was credited with throwing a baseball 135 yards, 1 foot, and 1/2 inch, and also again at St. Louis on October 19, he was credited with throwing a ball 134 yards, 5 inches.

On Fitness (And They Never Saw Jose Canseco)
"Right worthy of welcome did those visitors appear - stalwarts every man, lumps of muscle showing beneath their tight fitting jersey garments, and a springiness in every movement which denoted grand animal vigor and the perfection of condition. We could not pick eighteen such men from the ranks of all our cricketers, and it is doubtful if we could beat them by a draft from the foot ballers. If baseball has anything to do with building up such physique we ought to encourage it, for it must evidently be above and beyond all other exercises in one at least of the essentials of true athletics."

On Umpire Duties:
The attention of the Umpire is particularly directed to possible violations of the purpose and spirit of the Rules of the following character:
SEC. 1. Laziness or loafing of players in taking their places in the field, or those allotted them by the Rules when their side is at the bat, and especially any failure to keep the bats in the racks provided for them.
The Umpire is empowered to inflict fines of not less than $5.00 nor more than $25.00 for the first offence on players during the progress of a game.

Jeter, W, and the Mick

2008-02-06T09:38:00.000-08:00

This is undoubtedly old news to some of you, but I just stumbled across this and had to share...
I've been out of the baseball card scene for awhile now, so I was shocked to find out that Topps included a certain card in random packs of their 2007 baseball card set. The card pictures Derek Jeter swinging at a pitch, with the U.S. President George W. Bush prominently pictured in the stands, and late Yankee great Mickey Mantle looking on from the dugout.

The card was said to have been selling on EBAY for up to $800, but I believe after the initial sensation, the prices have dropped considerably.

Now I hear that Topps is including a card in its 2008 release of former New York City mayor (and Yankee fan) Rudy Giuliani apparently rooting for the hated Red Sox. If I was still an avid baseball card collector, I don't think I would like these kinds of cards that much. It seems to me that they should keep these kinds of things out of the hobby for it to maintain integrity.

It is kind of funny, though.

Mets Get Santana From Twins for 4 Prospects

2008-01-29T13:55:00.000-08:00

Johan Santana has been traded to the Mets for four prospects, pending the Mets and Santana agreeing to a contract extension. The Mets will send Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey to Minnesota to complete the deal.

Here's how it breaks down:

The Mets get:
Johan Santana, SP
28 years old
3.22 Career ERA, 93-44 W-L record
$13 million salary in 2007
expected deal: 6-years, $150 million
projected impact: + 5 to 7 wins in the regular season, and a much stronger Mets' post-season rotation.

The Twins get:
Carlos Gomez, OF
22 years old
.232 batting average with Mets in '07
young 5-tool stud
could start for Twins either in '08 or '09

Phil Humber, SP
25 years old
Mets #1 draft pick in 2004
Tommy John surgery in 2005
spent 2007 in AAA
Could crack the Twins' 2008 rotation

Deolis Guerra, SP
18 years old
6'5" 200 lbs.
spent '07 in A ball
A couple of years away from the bigs

Kevin Mulvey, SP
22 years old
2006 2nd round pick
spent '07 in AA
Good control, plus fastball, slider

This is one of those trades that is probably good for both teams. However, I think the Mets did well, considering they were competing against the Yankees and Red Sox for Santana. They also apparently held onto their top prospect, 19-year old outfielder Fernando Martinez, whom the Twins wanted added to the deal. Nice job by the Mets, in my opinion, to secure the game's top pitcher.

As for the American Leaguers, it looks like the Red Sox also win by keeping Johan out of the Bronx. The Yankees still need to improve their rotation if they want to beat the 'Sox in 2008.

Pitchers and Catchers

2008-01-16T09:52:00.000-08:00

It's almost time to start getting excited about the 2008 Major League Baseball Season. Here are the dates that pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report for your favorite team:

Feb. 13
Orioles
Cubs
Astros
Royals
Athletics
Phillies
Giants
Mariners

Feb. 14
Braves
Tigers
Angels
Dodgers
Yankees
Pirates
Cardinals
Padres
Devil Rays
Rangers

Feb. 15
Diamondbacks
RedSox
WhiteSox
Indians
Rockies
Mets
BlueJays

Feb. 16
Reds
Brewers
Nationals

Feb. 17
Marlins
Twins

Oh, and the A's and Red Sox get the 2008 season started on March 25th in Japan...

Swisher to White Sox for 3 Minor Leaguers

2008-01-03T16:05:00.000-08:00

Nick Swisher was traded from my beloved A's to the Chisox today for three minor leaguers. The Athletics get blue-chip southpaw pitcher Gio Gonzalez, outfielder Ryan Sweeney, and righty pitcher Fautino De Los Santos. While the A's have really loaded up on young talent, next year looks like they could challenge for the worst record in the majors.

In Roto-land, the trade helps out Swisher owners (me included), as he will be going from a pitcher-friendly park to a hitter-friendly stadium. That could boost his production by 20%. After a down year in 2007, he could climb back up to the 30 HR, 100 RBI level. He is supposedly going to play Center Field, which I don't think will help him stay healthy.

Keep in mind that the A's will probably be looking at a lot of different players at the major league level next year, as they evaluate their young studs. You may not want to go to high on Sweeney, for instance, as he could end up back at AAA if he doesn't produce right away. Gio Gonzalez is a major coup for Billy Beane. Any time you can get a very promising lefty starter, I think you have to do it.

Football Mogul 2008

2007-12-05T08:57:00.000-08:00

A few posts back, I mentioned that I had been playing Baseball Mogul recently. Well, I've taken a short hiatus to play some Football Mogul. For a challenge, I took over the 49ers to see if I could breathe some life into the struggling franchise.

We started out the 2007 campaign by attempting to upgrade the QB position, and across the board as well. Our best piece of trade bait was RB Frank Gore, so I unloaded him for QB David Garrard, a huge upgrade at that spot. I then traded for RB Cadillac Williams, and got busy signing cheap players off the free agent wire with lots of upside. It didn't look like our team would be very good in its first year, and we weren't...as our 2-14 record indicated. However, we started the year losing games by 15-20 points, and by the end of the season we were only losing by 7 or less.

The silver lining to our awful first season was that we got the 2nd overall pick in the 2008 draft. We took Oregon Running Back Jonathan Stewart --- a big speedster who looked like he could immediately step into the starting job. With our second round pick, we got lucky - as California WR Desean Jackson slipped down to our spot. In the 3rd round we took WR Early Doucet, and our skill positions were suddenly vastly improved from the year before.

Continuing to improve the squad, we went a respectable 9-7 in 2008, and won our division. We faced division-rival Seattle in the first round of the playoffs, and lost a close battle. Overall, it was very satisfying to take a horrible squad and make them respectable in one season.

Heading into 2009, Our roster was shaping up pretty nicely. We lost our first two games of the season, and decided to make some changes. We realized that QB Garrard probably wasn't quite good enough to make us a serious contender. We traded a load of draft picks and Jonathan Stewart to steal away top-notch gunslinger Jay Cutler. He started Game 3 of the '09 campaign, and we only lost one game the rest of the way.

Our 13-3 season got us a home game in the playoffs against our nemesis Seattle. This time, we cruised past them to an easy victory. Green Bay was up next. Although the Pack played us tough, we outlasted them 20-14. That took us into the Super Bowl against the Bengals. Cincinnati went 15-1 during the regular season, with their only loss coming to my 49ers. I knew that a repeat performance would be tough.

We got out to a 14-point lead in the second quarter. I knew that the Bengals would probably respond, and they did. The combination of Carson Palmer to Chad Johnson was lethal, hooking up 10 times, including two touchdowns. While the orange-and-black was busy throwing the ball around, we were having success ramming the ball down their throat. We were routinely getting 5+ yards per carry against Cincinnati's suspect run defense. The game went back and forth, and the 49ers led 21-19 in the fourth quarter. With four minutes left, the Bengals started a drive that took them inside the 49er 10-yard line. The defense stiffened, but the Bengals kicked a short field goal with under a minute remaining to virtually seal their first ever Super Bowl championship.

Then, the unthinkable happened. Veteran kick returner Curtis Martin touched the ball for the last time in his career, fielding a squib kick at the 30-yard line. Following a wall of 49er blockers, he reached the 50 yard line, and had only the kicker to beat. Mustering up a burst of speed from somewhere in his past, he turned on the jets and zoomed past the kicker...20, 15, 10...touchdown 49ers! Martin ran down the tunnel and out of the stadium into NFL lore. With only eight seconds left, the Bengals were unable to respond, and the final score read: 49ers 29, Bengals 22. An amazing finish to a fantastic season!

Football Mogul 2008 lets you simulate each game, or call the plays yourself as coach. I usually play 3-4 regular season games each year, and let the computer sim the rest. I always call the plays in the playoffs, though, as I want as much control as I can get over the action. There are 4 different difficulty levels, and past teams and players as well as all the current rosters. The draft is really fun, as well as negotiating with players and trying to stay under the salary cap. I highly recommend Football Mogul for any pigskin fans out there. It would make a great Christmas gift --- Visit Sports Mogul to find out more about their line of great products.

KC Royals = Bananaz

2007-12-04T14:11:00.000-08:00

On Tuesday, the Kansas City Royals spent $36 million dollars on an average major league outfielder, former Mariner Jose Guillen. Was there a reason that the M's declined their $9 million option on the guy who called former manager Mike Scoscia a "piece of garbage"? Is this the same guy that was accused (one month ago) of taking performance-enhancing drugs? Does all this add up to $12 million per year?

Last year, when KC spent big bucks on (another former Seattle player) Gil Meche, I thought that they were moving in the right direction. But, this Guillen signing is just plain nutz. For that kind of money, the Royals could have signed a much better player (or perhaps two), and someone without all the baggage.

BANANAZ!!

Angels Should 'Just Say No'

2007-12-03T10:10:00.001-08:00

The Florida Marlins are trying to wipe out my fantasy teams in one fell swoop. The fish are attempting to deal superstar 3B Miguel Cabrera, and they are asking a lot in return. The Angels have offered up young star Howie Kendrick, catcher Jeff Mathis, and either (pitchers) Ervin Santana or Nick Adenhardt.

The problem for me is that I have two teams in an AL-only roto league, and I own Kendrick, Mathis and Santana. I would lose those guys with no compensation if they are traded to the NL. Two of them (Kendrick and Santana) are on my defending champion Golden Sombreros.

The Angels are loaded with infield talent and starting pitching, which allows them to perhaps offer more talent than any other MLB team. They can afford to trade Kendrick because they have young infielder Sean Rodriguez almost ready for the show. As if the Angels offer wasn't enough, the Marlins countered by asking for Santana AND Adenhardt to go along with Mathis and Kendrick.

I know the Halos are looking for a 3B, but the Marlins asking price seems pretty high, when you consider that Kendrick is still very cheap, and Cabrera will likely cost his new team $11 million or more this year. With the new additions the Angels have already made, they might be well served to keep Kendrick, and try to go after another 3B (Chavez/Blalock/Beltre) with a lesser package. That would keep my fantasy team a little happier.

Baseball Mogul ---The King of the Baseball Sims

2007-11-19T12:32:00.001-08:00

The year is 2010.
Former Oakland A's GM Billy Beane has been replaced by a young upstart: ME.

I took over the A's in 2007 with visions of giving Oakland fans their first World Series title since 1989. But, it wouldn't be easy. The A's had been riddled with injuries the last few years, and the offense was mediocre at best. Luckily, I'm playing Baseball Mogul 2008, where dreams become reality.

I've been a fan of the Sports Mogul games for years. In prior years, I've purchased the full versions of Baseball Mogul and Football Mogul. If you're not familiar with the Mogul simulations, just head over to Sports Mogul and check out all the features of their sports lineup.

But, back to the A's...I took over a franchise that has been able to compete in recent years, hasn't won the World Series in almost twenty seasons. My first move was to move some of the underachieving players that were making too much money. Chavez, Crosby, Street...all gone.

Our first two years (2007 and 2008) were spent building up a core of talent that would be with the organization for several years down the road. Although we would still try to put a good team on the field, I really wanted to stockpile young, cheap players with good upside. I would also target fairly young established players who I felt would still be producing in 4-5 years at a reasonable price.

2007 was a pretty rocky campaign, as we brought in the influx of new faces. We added Chone Figgins, Hank Blalock, and Mark Buehrle via trade or free agency. Negotiations with free agents can be tough. A lot of them want option years or no-trade clauses added onto their contracts. Serving as the A's chief negotiator as well as the GM, I am often able to talk down their price as well as getting them to lower their extra demands. Who wouldn't want to play in Oakland?

We finished '07 and '08 just above .500, not quite enough to make the playoffs either year. The 2008 team was decimated by injuries to the pitching staff, and our depth was not enough to overcome them. The fans kept coming out to the ballpark, though, knowing that they were looking at the future of the A's. We were able to pick up some nice players in the amatuer draft in both years. Those players have yet to see the field in the majors. We're not into rushing our guys before they fully develop.

2009 saw us get into the playoffs for the first time, although we had to face the Twins in the first round. Minnesota boasted a rotation that included Johann Santana, Carlos Zambrano, and Francisco Liriano. We went out 1-2-3, and the season was over.

Knowing that we need to vastly improve our squad to beat the best teams, we broke the bank in 2010. After a couple of years of light spending which allowed us to bolster our cash reserves, we went out and signed free agent Joe Mauer, who we envision being our catcher for the next 5 years. We signed Vernon Wells and aging star Vladimir Guerrero to multi-year deals. We were also able to acquire young slugger Joey Votto for four players, including the somewhat-disappointing Daric Barton.

We are currently in mid-season 2010. Our record is an eye-popping 40-15. Oakland has spent more money on the medical staff to avoid injuries to our star players. Although we have the best record in baseball, we're not counting our chickens yet. Anything can happen in the second half or in the playoffs. One game at a time, baby!

Baseball Mogul 2008 offers so much for the average baseball geek that I can't possibly list all of the great features here. You can take over an existing major league team, past or present. Don't like how the 1960 World Series played out? Go back to '60 and help the Yankees cruise to the title. You can choose from four difficulty levels, build a stadium, and play your game a season at a time or one pitch at a time. Fantasy mode allows you to create all custom teams and players. Or, you can take existing players, and shuffle them all off to random teams.

What I like best about Baseball Mogul is that I can play an entire season in one sitting. I usually play a week at a time, and the game stops play if one of my guys gets injured. I handle all of the player transactions, but I leave the in-game decisions to my (computerized) managerial staff. After the A's win a few titles, I might see if I can ressurrect the pitiful Devil Rays, or create a whole new league.

Oh, and Football Mogul 2008 just came out! I hope to have a writeup of that product right here very soon :)

Top NBA Producers

2007-11-15T10:26:00.000-08:00

Here are the top NBA producers so far this year in terms of TOTAL POINTS (PTS + REB + AST + STL + BLK)

james,lebron 47.1
bryant,kobe 45.1
garnett,kevin 44.3
boozer,carlos 42.8
howard,dwight 41.1
ming,yao 40.6
davis,baron 40.5
iverson,allen 39.3
mcgrady,tracy 38.3
anthony,carmelo 37.7
paul,chris 36.8
kaman,chris 36.3
randolph,zach 36.2
jefferson,richard 35.9
nowitzki,dirk 35.7
pierce,paul 35.4
jefferson,al 34.7
marion,shawn 34.5
redd,michael 34.4
nash,steve 34.1
martin,kevin 33.9
johnson,joe 33.7
arenas,gilbert 33.6
butler,caron 33.6
smith,josh 33.6

Winning Your NBA Fantasy League

2007-11-15T09:12:00.000-08:00

A few years ago, I participated in an NBA Fantasy League. It was the 2001-02 season. The league used 12-man rosters with 10 owners, and five stat categories. There were two games each week, and we set our starting lineups for each game. I won that league, and thought I'd share my strategy with you. Even though most leagues have already had their drafts and started play, there's still plenty of time to make trades and free agent acquisitions.

Entering the draft, I had the third overall pick. Our stat categories were PTS, REB, AST, BLK, and STL. Each player's output in all five categories was added together to get the team total. I prepared my draft sheet and tried to identify players that might be undervalued by the other owners.

In addition to the stat projections, there were two other factors that I used to target players. One was durability. I wanted to make sure that the guys that I drafted had a good chance of missing only a few games. So, I didn't go after guys like Grant Hill. I also wanted players that still had their best years in front of them.

I knew that Shaq would be the first pick. I believe Tim Duncan went second. I decided to buck the trend of taking big men in the first round. With my pick, I took a very young, but talented Tracy McGrady. His prior year stats weren't as high as a few other guys near the top, but because of his youth, he projected to keep improving.

Here was my draft (what I can remember of it):

Round 1 - Tracy McGrady, G
He was the foundation for my team, a Do-It-All contributor who provided good points in all five categories. 76 games played.

Round 2 - Shawn Marion, F
Another young guy who slipped under everyone else's radar. He gave me monster numbers across the board, and played in 81 games.

Round 3 - Ben Wallace, C
A MAJOR coup for me in the draft. Big Ben qualified at center, and slipped to the third round because he didn't put up good scoring numbers. However, I saw the potential for improvement. He put up huge rebound numbers, finishing just behind Duncan in that category. Plus, his durability allowed me to start him every night. 80 games played.

Round 4 - Antawn Jamison, F
This may have been a suspect pick, but it worked out well in the end. Jamison did not have a great first half, and started receiving less playing time as the year went on. However, he picked it up in the second half, and became a force. Many think of Jamison as a scorer only, but he also rebounds well and gets a few blocks. 82 games played.

Round 5 - Darrell Armstrong, G
Another guy who flew under the radar was Armstrong, who finished with good points and assists totals, and also finished in the top five in steals. He also played in all 82 games. His career went downhill pretty quickly after the 01-02 season. Note that my starting five missed a grand total of only nine games.

Round 6 - Antonio Davis, F/C
A vastly undervalued guy who started for Toronto, and gave me quality production at the center position. I used him as a backup at times to Wallace.

Round 7 - Elden Campbell, C
I stocked up on quality big men that fell to the later rounds. The teams that had drafted centers early only felt the need to add one near the end of the draft. That was their mistake. I had three starting centers on my roster who produced. That limited the number of quality centers who were available after this point. Rule #1 of drafting: stock up at positions where quality is scarce. You can use those chips as trade bait later on.

Round 8 - Jalen Rose, G/F
Rose was a consistent contributor in points, rebounds, assists and steals, and even averaged a half a blocked shot per game. The next season was his best.

Round 9 - Anthony Peeler, G
Needing some insurance at the guard position, I grabbed Peeler. He was a decent scorer, but lacked points in the other categories to make him a higher pick. 82 games played.

Round 10 - Aaron Williams, F
This pick didn't really work out as well as I hoped it would. Although Williams didn't miss a game, his per-minute numbers didn't really improve, and he didn't play as much as I thought he might.

Round 11 - Jahidi White, C
More center stock-piling. White ended up with one of the highest rebound/minute averages in the league, although he only averaged about 19 minutes/night.

Round 12 - Tony Parker, G
Mr. Parker didn't really blossom until a few yaers later, but I liked the fact that he was young and played good minutes.

I don't think we scared anybody on paper, because we lacked a lot of big-name players. We were around .500 during the first half of the season, and didn't really gel until the playoffs neared. We cruise through the first round, and then had to face Shaq's team in the best 2-of-3 final round. We lost the first game, but then Shaq got hurt, and we won the next two games for the championship title.

What I learned from that season is that in Fantasy Hoops, the starting five is key. If you draft a solid top six or seven players who don't get hurt, you don't really need much depth. When other teams are trying to replace injured stars, you are still playing your top guys, and that makes all the difference. Also, addressing the issue of position scarcity is important in any draft.

Fantasy Baseball Wrap Up

2007-10-02T15:13:00.001-07:00

The season is over, and my Golden Sombreros managed to hang onto first place and grab the Oregon Hippie League title. The OHL is a six owner, 12-team, AL-only, 5x5 roto league. Each owner has two teams.

We went with TQStats this year, whom I'd been with for the last several seasons in another league. It was a rocky start to the year from a commissioner standpoint. The TQ system did not have all of the bugs worked out when the season started, and stat updates were spotty. One Sunday night, I had to take all of the league's reserved (and DL'ed) players off of the DL, and put them back on agian due to some malfunction in their system. As the season went on, they got most of the bugs straightened out, and I got to whittle my Sunday evening transactions to about two hours.

Coming out of our draft, almost everybody overspent on Day 1. We had one owner who held back, and he was able to grab some great bargains on day 2. I thought for sure I was toast...much more so when the Sombreros started near the bottom of the pack. What surprised me was that my cheap starting pitching was really holding their own against other staffs that cost three times as much. I don't think I spent more than $9 on a starting pitcher. I did come out of the draft with 2 closers, and then Al Reyes started picking up saves for the Devil Rays. Having three closers in a 12-team AL legaue is a great luxury. I don't think I'll have that again any time soon.

I traded Todd Jones for Joe Borowski and some change, and later traded Borowski for Ervin Santana, Fernando Rodney and Juan Rivera. That trade almost blew up in my face, but I was still able to win the Saves category by a comfortable margin. Rivera will be a nice $2 piece next year if he remains in Anaheim. My draft strategy was to place high in all five offensive categories, and I did that, while nailing down saves, and finishing respectably in everything else except wins. When your starting pitchers throw for the Royals (Meche), White Sox (Vazquez) and Blue Jays (Marcum), you can see why we were near the bottom in wins.

We also overcame the loss of Mark Teixeira to the NL before the trade deadline. I was never able to fully replace his power, but we managed to stay on top due to a career year from Mike Lowell, and a nice season from Jose Guillen. My first round pick in the minor league draft was Dustin Pedroia. I almost dropped him after the first month, but we all know what he did from May on.

Coming down the stretch, we saw our points lead go from double digits to a virtual tie in a matter of days (now I know how the Mets feel). It's nice to have a team pull it together in crunch time, even if they are only your fantasy team...

Here is my season-ending roster:

C Pierzynski $10
C Suzuki $6
1B H. Kendrick $26
2B Pedroia $6
3B Fields $6
SS B. Harris $6
MI Figgins $32
CM Glaus $21
UT Lowell $16
OF M. Cabrera $3
OF Gomes $6
OF J. Guillen $9
OF Markakis $17
OF J. Rivera $2

SP J. Vazquez $7
SP J. Washburn $2
SP Marcum $6
SP Meche $3
SP E. Santana $9
RP R. Perez $6
RP A. Brown $6
RP A. Reyes $6
RP M. Rivera $36

I also have Baldelli, Crain and Liriano on reserve, with Brandon Wood and Ian Kennedy in my minors. We can keep 14 majors and up to six minors, so next year is looking good, as we were well under the saslary cap with the departure of Teixeira. I don't expect repeat performances by some of these guys, but it was definitely nice to win ONE.

Oh, my other team finished 8th...

Blazers' Oden To Miss Season

2007-09-13T16:07:00.000-07:00

In case you are body-surfing glaciers in Iceland, and hadn't heard...

Greg Oden had knee surgery, and will most likely miss the entire 2007-08 season.

For those of us who wanted the Blazers to take Kevin Durant, it is a very sorry "I told you so".

See my original post on why the Blazers should have taken Durant HERE

Weight-Loss Solution

2007-09-13T08:26:00.000-07:00

If you've struggled to keep your wieght down, and no amount of dieting or exercising seems to work, the LAP-BAND system from JourneyLite may be just the thing for you. The Lap-Band system is a safe, proven, weight-loss surgery that is reversable and adjustable.

JourneyLite offers a comprehensive program that will take you step-by-step through the evaluation process. This process includes finding the right surgeon, gaining insurance approval, and extensive follow-up and aftercare. JourneyLite also provides support groups, forums, recipes and tips for success to ensure that your weight-loss experience is all that you want it to be.

This post is sponsored by JourneyLite.

obesity surgery

Week 1 NFL Notes

2007-09-12T08:41:00.000-07:00

Football season is uopn us, and we are through Week 1. Here are some thoughts from the first week on the gridiron:

After a 3-13 season, the Detroit Lions look like they might be ready to turn in a respectable (6 wins?) season. They thumped the Raiders 36-21 on Sunday, showing that their offense might be ready to become productive on a regular basis. The Lions lost eight games by 7 or fewer points last year, and scored 39 points in their season finale against Dallas. Look for rookie Calvin Johnson to have a nice year catching the ball. A big question for the Lions is whether Tatum Bell can hold up at running back. Plus, any team with Jon Kitna at QB is destined to lose at least half of its games.

New York Giants' QB Eli Manning got dinged up in the loss to the Cowboys on Sunday. Reports indicate that he could play this weekend. Mr. Manning needs to start stepping up his game on a consistent basis if New York is to make any noise this year. There are some rumors floating around that the G-men may target former Jaguar Byron Leftwich, but that seems a little far-fetched, since the Giants already have their franchise QB. Perhaps Kansas City or Chicago will make a run at the Jags' recent roster casualty.

Speaking of Da Bears, Mr. Rex Gross-Man proved once agian that he is not capable of being a good quarterback in the NFL. Chicago desperately needs some offense to go with a superior defense and special teams. The Bears managed just 202 yards against the Chargers in Week 1, and with the loss of defensive stalwart Mike Brown, it's even more important that Chicago gets some decent points out of its offense. This team could go downhill in a hurry if something isn't done about the QB position.

After watching the Cardinals-Niners game on Monday night, I am already convinced that Matt Leinart is not developing as he should. He has a great receiving corps, and a good running back in The Edge, but he is wildly inconsistent --- something we didn't see at USC. If I were an NFL GM, I would stay away from drafting QBs who have had great college careers, but have had a superstar running back to lean on (a la Reggie Bush). You just can't determine how much of an impact that the running game has on the QB position until you take out the superior threat.

Speaking of bad QBs, why is Joey Harrington still in the NFL? Two teams (the Dolphins and Lions) could have told us that he can't play a lick, but the Falcons decided to give him a shot anyway. Despite any productive stats that he might put up, he has not been able to shake the propensity to make huge mistakes. It's too bad, because he is a great guy, and had a wonderful career at Oregon. Look for a QB change in Atlanta very soon, with Leftwich being a real possibility.

Great Deals on Sports Buys

2007-09-05T09:56:00.000-07:00

The holiday season is just a few months away! First comes Halloween, then Thanksgiving, and before you know it, you'll be stuffing stockings! Don't worry, CouponChief is there for you. Make a wishlist of your household family members and think of the most amazing gift you would buy for them, if you could. Don't forget your pets either!

Check out Team Store, which has great deals on all kinds of sports apparel. They've got everything from high-quality NFL jerseys to outfits for your favorite college team. No doubt, you'll be able to find a great gift there for someone special. Or, for the golfer in your family, you can stock up on golf balls with the super discount pricing at KnetGolf.com.

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2007 Pac-10 Preview

2007-08-31T14:49:00.000-07:00

Guest Writer and OSU alum Kyle Rogers chimes in with his 2007 Pac-Ten Football Preview:

A little over 24 hours before the 2007 football season kicks off. Here is my breakdown of the best conference in the nation.

Predicted Conference Records:

USC 9-0

UCLA 7-2

Cal 7-2

Oregon St. 5-4

Oregon 4-5

ASU 4-5

WSU 3-6

Arizona 3-6

Washington 2-7

Stanford 1-8

USC- Reloaded isn't even a strong enough word to describe this juggernaut. Their backfield is loaded with talented experience. So, they have to replace two major productive WR, but they have the athletes. Can a there be another Ucla or OS loss on their resume? The Defense looks tough again, however they can be vulnerable in the secondary. Too much depth this year, and with JDB coming back with a whole year under his belt I expect this team to run the table. A near upset will be the ASU game.

UCLA- you keep thinking with all the recruits and talent that this team will put it together, but every year Dorrell costs them a couple of games. This is Oregon South, tons of talent, but a penchant to underachieve by not showing up for the less-than-important games. I see them losing in Corvallis, and USC, but they will be right there in the conference race if Olsen steps up big.

Cal- is a consensus number two pick, with their performance the last five years under Tedford (probably the best coach in the league). They have DeSean Jackson who possibly could return kickoffs as well as punts. Not to mention, he is a deep threat at WR. They will have to replace Marshawn Lynch, but they have a good stable of RB's and under Tedford somebody always emerges. I see their defense as not being as strong as the offense, and teams like ASU, OS, and USC will give them problems. OS has won the last four games in Berkley.

Oregon- Returns a lot on offense, but you have to wonder where the committment is and what type of team chemistry they have, especially after a few losses. Stewart is a great back who can cause a ton of problems; we shall see if they call more plays for him or if he will get lost in the offense. The defense doesn't look very good, and the Ducks will have to score a lot of points.

Oregon State - New QB, new punter (Serna), no Sammie Stroughter (update - he is practicing), and a tough road schedule will provide a huge challenge for this team. However, the defense looks better than last year, the OL is the best in country, and Yvenson Bernard is the most verstatile back in the league. They will need to limit turnovers by their inexperienced QB's and kicking game. They will beat some teams, but will struggle on the road and need their senior leadership to get them through the season. Top games: ASU, UCLA, and Oregon.

ASU- Wherever DE ends up he usually leads that team to a Pac-10 crown, and I won't be surprised to see him do it again --- however it won't be this year. Again they will beat some tough teams, maybe even USC, but their defense is horrible. It will improve under DE, but they are still a year or two away.

WSU- Will be in the mix this year, with Alex Brink at QB and they will play a lot better than last year, however Brink might not have enough around him to take the pressure off of him in the offense. Tough games against Oregon and Cal will determine what type of season it will be. The defense will not be as strong at pass defense, but they could put up some numbers. A bad season and Doba may be on his way out.

Arizona- Much will be determined by the QB, and if Tuitutama can perform without mistakes they might knock some pretenders out (ASU, Ucla). Their defense along with Ucla's will be the top in the league and will keep them in games. However, Stoops is not a good coach and doesn't get the most out of his players. He is a good recruiter, but not so much with offense players.

Washington- will be improved but their talent level still isn't very high. They will give teams a lot of heart, but a tough Non-conference schedule will have this team realizing they have a lot of work still ahead. There isn't anything on this team that scares you, and it will be easy to make them one dimensional.

Stanford- enough said.

NFL Briefs - NFC East

2007-08-31T08:32:00.000-07:00

The Dallas Cowboys were seconds away from possibly winning their first-round playoff game last year when QB Tony Romo botched the snap from center, and the season was suddenly over. The 'Boys have all of the tools to get back to the playoffs this year. Romo comes off a good season, and should only get better from here. He gives Dallas instant credibility and consistency at the game's most importnant position that the team never had under Drew Bledsoe. The strong running game should promote good balance on offense. There is a ton of speed on defense. Look for a breakout season from linebacker DeMarcus Ware. On paper, this is the best team in the division. (11-5)

QB Eli Manning struggled through an inconsistent season last year. His 2006 stats (24 TD, 18 INT) were eerily similar to his 2005 stats. At times, he looked dominant, but also appeared dazed and confused on many occasions. The New York Giants will struggle this year because of the QB play, the depature of Tiki Barber, and the inconsistent play of Plaxico Burress. On defense, the G-Men are in the bottom half of the league. The secondary, which gave up over 200 passing yards per game in '06, is a big concern. The Giants will surprise a few teams, but will also lose some games that they should win. (6-10)

The Philadelphia Eagles played over their heads in '06, winning the division on a late season surge led by QB Jeff Garcia. This year, Donovan McNabb is back and healthy, and the team should respond with another winning campaign, although the record might not be any better than last year's 10-6 mark. McNabb is the guy who makes the Eagles a Super Bowl contender every year. RB and all-purpose stud Brian Westbrook provides McNabb with a great weapon who puts up a lot of all-purpose yardage. The receiving corps is marginally better this year, with the addition of Kevin Curtis (Rams). The defense will be sound, but not spectacular. The coaching of Andy Reid almost always makes the Eagles better than they appear on paper. (10-6)

Mediocrity has been the theme in D.C. for several years now. Although they made the playoffs in 2005, competing with the other tough teams in this division has left the Washington Redskins out in the cold. In fact, '05 is the team's only winning season this decade. QB Jason Campbell will see if he can light a fire under an offense that has traditionally struggled. The RB tandem of Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts is very talented, but should be even more productive than they have been. Look for Portis to be the odd man out here. The defense should be above average, but the secondary is somewhat suspect. Even a Hall of Fame coach like Joe Gibbs will have a tough time getting wins out of this squad. (5-11)

Ultimate Paintball Rocks!

2007-08-30T09:20:00.000-07:00

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Rangers 30, Orioles 3

2007-08-22T19:58:00.000-07:00

What can you say about a game where the 8 and 9 hitters drive in 14 runs? Or where the bullpen gives up 24 runs in 4 innings? Or where the winning team gets more runs than outs?

The Rangers season batting average just went up five points. The Orioles dropped from 7th to 11th in ERA in just this one game. Oh, and Wes Littleton got the 3-inning save, if that excites you.

Hopefully you didn't have Brian Burres or Paul Shuey on your fantasy squad...

NFL Briefs - AFC East

2007-08-20T11:29:00.000-07:00

With its salary cap and collective bargaining agreement, the National Football League (NFL) has become the major professional sports league with the most parity. The NFL schedule makers also penalize the good teams from the previous season by increasing the difficulty of their opponents. That means that it's easier in the NFL for a franchise to rise from the ashes to reach the playoffs or even the Super Bowl.

AFC East -
The success of the Miami Dolphins has, since the retirement of Dan Marino, been built upon a suffocating defense. The offense usually scores just enough, or not quite enough, points to win. It's been hard for the Fins to escape the middle of the pack because the passing game has usually been subpar. Enter Trent Green... He has put up some nice numbers in Kansas City, but he has yet to display the leadership skills necessary to take a team to the Big Game. I rate Miami as an extreme longshot. (6-10)

The once-mighty New England Patriots almost made it to the Super Bowl last year, but the Indy offense kicked it into gear in the second half of the AFC Championship game to roar away with the conference title. Can Brady and crew rebound to get back to the promised land? With the highly publicized addition of Randy Moss, the Pats' offense may (or may not) improve (see Oakland last year). The Patriot defense seems to be in decline, and this does not resemble the team that won 3 super bowls, which was built on great defense and unheralded position players on offense. The Pats are definitely set to make a run in the playoffs, but I see them going out in the first or second round. (11-5)

Quarterback J.P. Losman displayed more talent in his third season than in the previous two, and seems ready to move into the upper half of QBs in the league. For the Buffalo Bills to win enough games to make the playoffs, he has to be brilliant, and avoid costly turnovers. His 14 interceptions from last year were too high for a team that plays low-scoring games. The Bills' defense can be just plain suffocating. However, with the off-season loss of linebackers Takeo Spikes and London Fletcher, this could be another tough season for Buffalo fans. I think that a .500 season will be a tall order for this group. (7-9)

In the recent past, the New York Jets have sometimes put late-season runs together, but have always come up short of the Super Bowl. In order for the Jets to compete for the title in 2008, they will need quarterback Chad Pennington to perform at a level he hasn't played at since 2002, when he posted 22 touchdowns and only six interceptions. Don't count on it. On the other side of the ball, newly-signed cornerback Darrelle Revis should pay dividends down the road. However, first-year corners are always targets for NFL passers, so expect the Jets to give up some big plays. I project the Jets to just miss the playoffs in '08. (9-7)

Goodbye Wily Mo, We Hardly Knew Ye

2007-08-18T08:33:00.000-07:00

I woke up this morning to find out that another of my roto players had been traded to the NL. The Red Sox sent Wily Mo Pena to the Expos...I mean Nationals (whatever) for nothing (A PTBNL if you want to get technical).

All I can say to AL GMs is "STOP TRADING ALL MY FREAKIN' PLAYERS AWAY!!!" Or if you have to trade them to the NL, at least get something back in return so I can fill my roster with new talent. Now, I have to decide if I want Eric Hinske, Donny Murphy or Marco Scutaro to take his roster spot.

Now, enough complaining...Wily Mo was never going to get a chance in Beantown, but I did hope he'd go to the Royals or Orioles rather than the Nats. He's got a ton of power, but doesn't make great contact. That prompted Nationals GM Jim Bowden to say "One thing about Willie Mo Pena I can tell you is if you give him 500 at bats, he's going to hit 40 home runs and strike out more than Adam Dunn," Bowden said. "And he's a below-average defender who needs to work hard on his game."

Sounds like a ringing endorsement to me...

Loading up for 2008

2007-08-08T09:15:00.000-07:00

Whether you're gunning for your Fantasy Baseball League Championship in 2007, or are already out of the running for any winnings, it's always a good idea to start planning for next year. Around this time of year, I try to identify guys who I expect to have an impact the following season, who can be picked up off the free agent wire or added to my farm system. Picking up those guys in August won't hurt your stats too much, and might give you some firepower or trade bait for the years ahead. I try to target young players who might have been called up recently, or players who might get a starting shot next year who might still be flying under the radar.

American League - Jeff Mathis, C, LAA
...has displayed a good bat in the minors, now it's time to step up in The Show.

Wily Mo Pena, OF, BOS
...someday soon, a team (not Boston) will give Mo a starting job to see what he can do. He's got great power, and would put up 30+ homers given 500 AB.

Rafael Betancourt, RP, CLE
...After posting tremendous numbers in the minors a few years back, Betancourt has had minimal opportunities to close in the majors. Although Joe Borowski has been good this year, Betancourt's performance this year has indicated that he is ready for the closer's job in Cleveland.

Brandon McCarthy, SP, TEX
...He's got great stuff, and has pitched much better the last month or two. He's got what I look for in a young starting pitcher - a good arsenal, ability to get guys out when it counts, and marked improvement.

Kason Gabbard, SP, TEX
...After getting traded from Boston, (will they regret that move?) Gabbard has been moved into the Rangers' rotation. Have you seen him throw? He's got some nasty stuff. Expect him to get every opportunity to stay there in '08.

Wilson Betemit, IF, NYY
...After watching Betemit in Atlanta a couple of years ago, I've always known he can hit. He's got a lot of pop for an infielder. He may not get a great chance in New York, but may move to a new location in 2008.

Adam Jones, OF, SEA
...If you can still grab Jones, do so now. He's a 5-tool stud who will take off soon. Alexi Casilla, 2B, MIN Not as polished as Luis Castillo, whom the Twinkies traded away. Still, loads of talent.

Wladimir Balentien, OF, SEA ...
Another Mariner minor-league hitter who can rake. Santiago Casilla, RP, OAK He's one of those guys who looks really impressive when he throws. He's young, so don't expect miracles yet.

Kurt Suzuki, C, OAK
...Oakland pitchers are already saying that he handles a game really well. He hit well in the minors, so expect him to pick up the pace by next year.

Ben Zobrist, SS, TB
...He has killed minor league pitching, but has whiffed an a couple of opportunities in the bigs. Too young to be considered a 4-A guy, (someone who destroys AAA, but can't hit in the majors) I believe he will start to produce this year.

Andrew Brown, RP, OAK
...Nasty, nasty stuff. His strikeout rate in the minors was one of the higher rates I've ever seen. Time will tell if that translates to good roto numbers, but he has done well in Oakland's pitching paradise so far.

Rafael Perez, RP, CLE
...The best guy you might not know about...he has shown excellent production out of Cleveland's pen this year. He might step up to a setup role in 2008.

Brandon Wood, 3B, LAA
...The Angels have too many talented infielders. That said, Wood is a great hitter who should get a long look next year.

Matt Garza, SP, MIN
...He should nail down a spot in the middle of the Twins' rotation for 2008. How has this team kept Carlos Silva all these years?

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 1B, TEX
...The main prize in the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, Salty can catch or play first. He doesn't have a lot of power yet for a firstbaseman, but should hit much better than he has so far for the Rangers.

Jason Botts, OF/DH, TEX
...A Kevin Mench type who can mash. I tend to stay away from guys who don't play good defense, simply because they are usually the first ones traded. However, he should be a regular contributor in Arlington for a couple of years.

C.J. Wilson, RP, TEX
...He is getting a chance to close now, with Otsuka out. That will definitely help his value in the years ahead, even if he's not closing for Texas.

Ben Francisco, OF, CLE
...Because the Indians are in the pennant chase, Francisco hasn't received a lot of chances yet. Baseball

Frankie Francisco, RP, TEX
...He's been around a few years, and injured for a good part of the last two seasons. He can really throw hard, and could be a closer candidate sometime soon.

Georgia on my Mind

2007-07-30T20:06:00.000-07:00

As the Major League Baseball trade deadline nears, my evil roto mind is churning. You see, I lost Mark Teixeira from my 1st place AL squad today, and must now figure out how to replace his Avg, Home Runs, Runs and RBI from players on the Free Agent List (not likely), or the guys coming over to the AL from the NL.

Let's see... on the Free Agent list we have Alex Cora, Raul Casanova and Rob Quinlan. Hmmm. Better look elsewhere.
Guys coming to the AL so far: Jarrod Saltalamachia. I doubt he can put up Big Tex's numbers, but he might make a nice platoon with Gerald Laird.
My only other option is to try to make a trade. I've got two closers, so I could deal one. That's kinda risky. I have overachieving starting pitchers like Jarrod Washburn and Shawn Marcum. Maybe I can deal Marcum for Gary Sheffield, even though I really don't want to. I probably wouldn't keep Sheff and his big salary next year, and Marcum is just $6 for the next two years.

The plight I face is really not much different from the GM of a major league team who has to replace an injured superstar right before the deadline. Do we go for the gusto this year, and possibly sacrifice next year? Or do we hang back, hoping Howie Kendrick will get healthy, and Kevin Millwood will right himself enough to keep us on top for two months?

Maybe some big name hitter will cross over to the AL in the next 12 hours, and I will have the cap space to land him. At least our league's trade deadline (August 12) allows me some time to ponder my conquest. Some leagues use July 31st as their deadline, which allows all of 12 hours to rearrange one's roster. Insanity prevails in such cases.

I hope Big Tex likes it in Atlanta. Sniff. Sniff.

Sports Coupon Deals

2007-07-25T09:57:00.000-07:00

At one time or another, all of us want to do some sports-related shopping. I recently came across an excellent site for online coupons. They list coupons for hundreds of different stores and retailers.
One of the best stops is the coupon page for Sports Authority. There, you can find coupon links for 10% off on any purchase. They also have links to clearance sales, and special deals on golf purchases. In addition, they offer Free Shipping on any basketball system purchase, which includes stand-alone basketball hoops and supports.
So, be sure to check out their site if you plan on doing any early Christmas shopping for your sports fans this year.

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This post is sponsored by KeepCash.com

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Hitting the Back Button on Your Season

2007-07-18T11:47:00.000-07:00

Although my roto baseball teams are doing fairly well this year (one in 1st, one in 4th), there are some moves I've made where I'd like to take a mulligan.

Vicente Padilla - I drafted this guy thinking he might reproduce his 4.50 ERA in 200 IP from last year at a very low price. Instead, he has been downright awful, with a 1.81 WHIP and opponents hitting .326 off of him. I hung onto him as long as I could, and then dropped him in June when it became obvious that a turn around wasn't in order. He got hurt shortly after.

Ervin Santana - I take back all the nice things I've said about this guy. I traded Joe Borowski to get him and Fernando Rodney, plus the injured Juan Rivera at $2. I was convinced that Ervin would shake his weird home/road splits (good at home, awful on the road), but all he's done is gotten worse in Anaheim. Last night's torching by the D-Rays (14 hits, 6 runs) puts him right on the verge of being cut.

Corey Patterson - Although he's turned on the juice lately, my gut says it won't last. The guy has no idea up at the dish, and aside from his speed, really doesn't do much for my roster, and kills my batting average. He was fairly expensive at $16, so I should have passed on him and gone for Granderson at $6 or Shannon Stewart at $2.

Johnny Damon - He's not a bad player, but he's been hurt all year, and when he plays, he can't hit. He has stolen double-digit bases, so that's the only bright spot for my $31.

Howie Kendrick - Another good player who can't stay healthy. I went high on the Halos' second baseman of the future, dishing out $26 for a high batting average and lots of runs and steals. Instead, I've reaped a decent batting average and a lot of time on the DL.

Rocco Baldelli - What was I thinking here? That he might actually be healthy for a month? See Howie Kendrick...I guess it's only $14 down the drain.

Bartolo Colon - Big Fat Colon has pitched awfully awful the last couple of months. I thought I had a steal at $2, but all he's done is run up my ERA and WHIP. I keep waiting for the Angels to DL him or send him down so I can reserve him, but for now he's still on my active roster (ouch!)

What have been your worst decisions in your fantasy league this year?

College Football Blog

2007-07-17T09:18:00.000-07:00

One cool blog I've come across recently is a Northwestern University football blog called Lake The Posts. The name bears homage to the 'Cats of yesteryear, whose rare wins were marked by torn-down goal posts carried out to Lake Michigan. Currently, the blog is concentrating on re-living the Top NU games in school history. It's a good read, especially if you like rooting for the underdogs.

Anyway, here's the link:

Lake The Posts

Article Pickup

2007-07-15T18:23:00.000-07:00

The fine folks at Write on Sports were kind enough to pick up my piece on Ichiro. Visit their exellent site, where a couple of my writings have landed.

Ichiro is Peter Pan

2007-07-13T14:29:00.000-07:00

As I was listening to some sports talk show the other day, they were giving highlights of the previous evening's MLB All-Star Game. I heard the voice of Ichiro Suzuki, the game's MVP, come over my radio, speaking perfect English during the post-game interview. I was shocked to hear the progress he has made with our language. Of course, then I realized that Ichiro was speaking through an interpreter.

While Vladimir "The Impaler" Guerrero was bashing the baseball 500 feet on his way to winning the Home Run Derby, Ichiro demonstrated his skills when it counted. He went 3-for-3 in the Big Game, showing NL pitchers and fans what they've been missing over the last seven years. In the first inning, he drilled a patented Ichiro single off of Jake Peavy. Later in the game, he hit a long fly ball off the wall in right field. When the ball took a funny bounce off the wall right by the venerable Ken Griffey Jr, everybody in the park knew Ichiro had a chance to score. And he did.

The mystical Mariner outfielder has been a fixture in Seattle since 2001, when he was imported from Japan. He has not (or will not) speak fluent English, although some sources claim that he does this intentionally in order to avoid reporters. He reportedly keeps his bats in a humidor, listens to rap music, and loves "Star Wars". Ichiro's limited American vocabulary consists of phrases such as 'What Up Dog' and 'Yo Mama'.

As I write this post, The Seattle Mariners have just agreed to a five-year contract with Mr. Suzuki in the neighborhood of one hundred million smackers. Although the Mariners have their Moose, Ichiro is the true Mariner mascot. He is solely responsible for drawing thousands of fans to the stadium every night. What other player has their name chanted in unison by an entire ballpark when he gets ready to hit?

Hitting for contact is one thing Ichiro can do better than almost anyone who has ever played. His batting style is unorthodox, to say the least. He does not keep his balance back, as the book on hitting says to do, but often shifts his weight to his front foot, bringing the bat through the hitting zone as though it were a broom. You would not teach your child to hit the way Ichiro does, and yet he has proven extremely effective. He has hit over .300 every year in the majors, including .355 so far this year. If Vlad is the Impaler, then Ichiro is the Acupuncturist, sticking it to the other team one line drive at a time. He is the Peter Pan of the American League, gracefully flitting here and there, swatting cue shots up the middle, always just beating out the grounder to short.

Sabermetricians must hate him. He draws fewer than one walk for every fifteen plate appearances in his career, although his ratio is a little better in 2007. He displays little power, preferring to hit 'em where they aint (see Wee Willie Keeler). Although he has a .333 career batting average, his On Base Percentage is only .379, and his Slugging Percentage is .439, a hardly Ruthian figure. Yet, if you asked today's GMs about guys they would like to start a team with, Ichiro's name rises to the top.

In addition to Ichiro's incredible hitting prowess, he is a gazelle on the basepaths. He reportedly gets down the first base line in a nifty 3.2 seconds, putting him there with the fastest players ever. If he hits a chopper into the ground, forget it. If he sends one into the gap, he will likely be standing on third in less than ten seconds.

His throwing arm is a cannon, especially for someone who is so slight-of-build. Players and fans everywhere know that you can't run on Ichiro, so rarely does anyone try. His move from right field to center has allowed the Mariners to bring in Jose Guillen this year, a big improvement over Jeremy Reed or Willie Bloomquist. Ichiro is one of the best center fielders in the game, although we don't often see him on ESPN's Web Gems. Who needs to make a leaping or diving catch if you can beat the ball to the spot?

Two players which I saw play as I was growing up remind me of Ichiro at the plate. Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn defined pure hitting in the 80's, forsaking power for the ability to consistently hit line drives to all fields. If you look up Ichiro's comparables based on stats, though, you get guys like Bake McBride and Ron LeFlore...good players, but not nearly of his caliber. In fact, it is difficult to find a player like Ichiro anywhere in the history of baseball.

Ironically, the player Ichiro is least like is his own teammate, Richie Sexson, who hits one ball out of the park every five games and somehow makes millions of dollars doing it. Today's baseball is committed to the long ball, building behemoths who can drive towering shots over drawn-in fences. Sabermetrics preaches the value of the walk and the home run. Ichiro's greatness transcends modern-day wisdom.

I've come to a profound realization: Baseball is not (or should not be) about winning. The game I love is about Ernie Banks, the curse of the Bambino, and Pine Tar. We revel in blown calls, fan interference, and coaches jawing with an umpire face-to-face. In fact, my favorite part of the game is the pitcher-batter duel. The universe comes to a stop when John Lackey deals filth to Alex Rodriguez. Pitch by pitch, moment by moment, who will win the battle? Ichiro wins his wars more than any other player.

My daughter just turned one year old last month. I plan to share my love of the game with her as she grows up. I relish in the thought that she will see Ichiro Suzuki play, even if he is an old man. I will tell her that he is the Peter Pan of baseball - that he is from Neverland, sprinkled with fairy dust, always just a little too fast to be caught in the dreaded grasp of Captain Hook.

Sometime in the future, on a warm summer day, a crowd of people will gather in Cooperstown, New York. They will turn their attention to the man at the podium who has enthralled them with his bat and glove. he was not like any other player they had ever seen. He will not speak in a language that they understand, but his words will be relayed through another. That is because he comes from another place, seemingly not of this world. Mustering up the few English words that he knows, he will exclaim "What up Dog?", and the people in return will chant I-CHI-RO, I-CHI-RO!

Free Fantasy Sports Logos and More

2007-07-12T14:16:00.000-07:00

I've stumbled across a few pretty cool fantasy sports links that I wanted to share with you:

Free Fantasy Sports Logos - They have some sample football helmets, baseball jerseys and sports logos that you could use for your team or league.

Free Football E-cards - OK, these are a little cheesy, but you might find a good e-card to send to your rival team's owner on their special day.

Fantasy Sports Stocks - Instead of trading pork bellies or Microsoft, you can invest in your favorite fantasy sports stud or squad.

Custom Fantasy Sports Gear - Get your own team's logo put on a jersey, T-shirt, trophy or draft board - all custom designed to your specifications.

Design Your Own Football Helmet - You can create your own helmet, or choose from the hundreds of premade designs, including insects, aliens and animals.

Cool Baseball Apparel

2007-07-11T10:33:00.000-07:00

If you're looking for a nice baseball jersey to show your support for your favorite Major League Baseball team, check out the Paragon Sports Deals. They have baseball apparel for all thirty major league teams, plus tons of hats, jerseys, jackets, tees and apparel for all of you Yankees and Mets fans out there.

I really like some of the alternate uniform items they have there, such as the black and green New Era Oakland A's cap. You can still get a Gary Sheffield Yankees T-shirt, too.

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Second Half Swings

2007-07-11T08:33:00.000-07:00

We all know that the All-Star Break marks a crucial point in any season. Some players, who have lit it up it the first half come crashing back to Earth after the break, and vice versa. Here is a list of PITCHERS whose fortunes may change drastically in the second half of the 2007 season:

Second Half Winners:

Orlando Hernandez, NYM

El Duque seems to have found a nice situation in the other New York. He posted a 3.22 ERA in the first half (13 starts) and held opponents to a .210 batting average. Before you say that his great season can't continue, consider that Hernandez has performed much BETTER after the All-Star break in recent years. He needs to stay healthy, though, which may be a long shot.

Oliver Perez, NYM

Like his teammate, Perez has put together a really nice first half, with a 3.14 ERA at the break. Opponents are managing just a .207 batting average. Perez is notoriously better in the last three months of the season, so expect him to keep up the good work. He has been very streaky in the past, though so watch for signs of him reverting to his old ways, which were pretty disastrous.

Kevin Millwood, TEX

It's hard to recommend a Rangers' pitcher, but Millwood had such an awful first half (6.16 ERA) that I think I'm safe in saying we'll see an improvement here. Millwood is typically much better after the break, posting career ERA's over 4.00 in April, May and June, but sub-4.00 in July, August and September. His strong physical makeup bodes well for handling the summer heat. His last couple of starts have also been pretty good, and I'm a big believer in grabbing a pitcher when he starts to show signs of snapping out of a slump (I grabbed Millwood two weeks ago off the free Agent wire in my 12-team AL league).

Other Second-half studs: Kelvim Escobar, Johan Santana (duh), Jose Contreras (gets better in August and September).

Second Half Losers:

Dan Haren, OAK

If you are a Haren owner, and you haven't cashed in on his early success, be prepared to do so reeeeally sooooon. After holding down an ERA in the 1.50 range for much of the first half, he has begun to slip as the weather has heated up. This is his custom, as he has posted career sub-4.00 ERA's in April, May and June, but above 4.00 in July, August and September. Perhaps with another year under his belt he will buck the trend in '07, but I wouldn't bet against history.

Brad Penny, LAD

Another first-half wunderkid, Penny has posted amazing numbers (3 HR given up, 2.39 ERA) in the first three months. He has allowed a .244 batting average against, which hints that his great ERA might be a bit overstated. Like Haren, Penny usually goes downhill in the second half, posting a 1.44 WHIP the last three years, versus a 1.20 WHIP in the first half.

Paul Byrd, CLE

Byrd did not have a great first half, finishing at the All-Star break with a 4.41 ERA, and allowing 131 hits in 102 innings pitched (a .307 batting average against). The scary thing is, his numbers typically get worse after the break. His WHIP the last three years has declined from 1.21 to 1.40 in the second half. He had been in trade rumors, so he would be someone to avoid.

Other Second Half Decliners: Jake Westbrook, Roy Halladay, Mark Buehrle, Josh Beckett.

Cash In On Your Blog

2007-07-10T08:40:00.000-07:00

Do you want to know how to make a little extra cash from your blog? I just got approved with Pay Per Post, a program that pays you for posts that you make which are related to their advertisers' products. I will be making such posts here periodically. Am I selling out to the man? You bet!

To qualify, your blog must have existed for ninety days. You must have made twenty posts in the last 90 days and posted once in the last seven days. Pay Per Post will show you which posting opportunities are most suited for your blog. Now it's time to go shopping for that Jack Cust jersey I've been eyeing for so long!

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The Twilight Zone All-Star Game

2007-07-03T13:08:00.000-07:00

In the Twilight Zone, anything is possible as long as it bears some semblance to the real world. I thought it would be fun to put together starting lineups for the 2007 MLB All-Star game comprised of all-time players who are most similar to the real starters, accoring to baseball-reference.com

Starting Lineups:

NL
OF Bonds (most similar = Willie Mays)
OF Griffey (Sammy Sosa!)
OF Beltran (Tommy Henrich, Yankees OF in the 1940's)
3B Wright (Garrett Atkins)
SS Reyes (Bill Dahlen, SS from 1891 to 1911)
2B Utley (Alfonso Soriano)
1B Fielder (Kent Hrbek)
C Martin (Terry Steinbach)

AL
OF Ordonez (Wally Berger, Red Sox OF in the 1930's)
OF Guerrero (Albert Belle, not Joey)
OF Ichiro (Mike Donlin, OF 1899 - 1914, .333 career AVG)
3B A. Rodriguez (Eddie Matthews)
SS Jeter (Alan Trammell)
2B Polanco (Julio Franco)
1B Ortiz (Mo Vaughn)
C I. Rodriguez (Yogi Berra)

The AL looks to have the immediate offensive advantage, with HOF'ers Matthews and Berra.

The NL definitely has some pop, too, with Mays, Sosa and Soriano. For the NL, I like a batting order of Soriano, Dahlen, Atkins, Mays, Sosa, Hrbek, Henrich and Steinbach.

For the superior AL squad, I envision a batting order of Donlin, Franco, Belle, Matthews, Berra, Vaughn, Berger and Trammell.

If somebody has one of those simulators that allows you to combine players from different eras, you might try filling out the rosters, and letting me know how the game turns out.

Ridnour to Atlanta?

2007-06-28T11:51:00.000-07:00

From the AP-

Seattle leaves Ridnour offer on table
Thursday, Jun 28, 2007 1:51 pm EDT

The Seattle SuperSonics are sitting pretty with the No. 2 overall pick in the NBA draft, but the team still has an offer on the table to improve its draft position.
The primary deal that remains on the table is trading point guard Luke Ridnour to the Atlanta Hawks for the No. 11 pick, which could be used on Eastern Washington standout Rodney Stuckey. According to sources, the deal remains alive while the Hawks figure out a way to make a bigger deal using the No. 3 and No. 11 picks.
Source: Seattle Post Intelligencer

...why would Atlanta do this? Seattle is probably the only team that Ridnour would have been starting for last year. He had to be one of the lowest-producing point guards out there, among players who regularly started games. The Hawks could do much better by using that pick on someone else.

Blazers PLeeease Draft Kevin Durant

2007-06-27T19:09:00.000-07:00

http://draftkevindurant.blogspot.com

'nuff said...

The Best Baseball Websites

2007-06-27T11:03:00.000-07:00

My favorite baseball websites are as follows (no particular order):

www.BaseballAmerica.com
Not taking the major leagues into account, baseball is played all over the United States. You can find minor league teams in towns and cities all across the country. Baseball America is a great source for finding out about your favorite major league team's farm system. They provide comprehensive lists of players, sortable stats and commentary for all minor league teams. They also do a fine job covering college baseball, which is growing rapidly in popularity.

www.RotoWorld.com
Primarily a fantasy sports site, RotoWorld is not just for fantasy geeks. RotoWorld reports sports news in a very timely manner. Because of their superior coverage, they usually get their news items up faster than bigger sites like Yahoo or MSN. Plus, they report or comment on a much greater amount of players on a daily basis. You can look up a great number of professional sports players in their vast databse, which gives you vitals as well as career statistics. You can also find quality articles in abundance there.

www.TheBaseballCube.com
The Baseball Cube is a historical almanac providing major league, minor league and college statistics. The major league records go back over 100 years. I have often visited this site when I am trying to find information on minor league players, as they tend to have more info on the minors than any other site I've visited. You can also 'sponsor' your favorite player's webpage on their site.

www.Sabr.org
The Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) was established in 1971. Their desire is to promote the study of baseball, both current and historical. Of primary interest on the site are their studies on everything from The Deadball Era (1901-1919) to Women in Baseball. It's a fine source for anyone wanting to examine the history of baseball, and how the game has changed through the years.

www.Baseball1.com
This site is a nice archive of various topics, ranging from Sabermetrics to the Negro leagues. It also has a fine database of downloadable stats from baseball's early era.

www.Baseball-Reference.com
In my opinion, this is the premier website for baseball stat junkies. Here, you will find current standings and boxscores, and past stats going back to 1871.You'll also discover a comprehesive list of past players, managers, post-season results and awards.

www.BaseballThinkFactory.org
A general discussion site, with articles on all kinds of topics, including the minor league draft and current baseball events. At any given time, you might find up to 1000 people viewing the site.

The Wisdom of Bill James

2007-06-22T12:21:00.000-07:00

Bill James is currently on the staff of the Boston Red Sox as a statistical guru. Before he was hired in 2002, he was well known for his Baseabll Abstract publications. These books used scientific methods to judge whether conventinal baseball wisdom held up when compared with cold, hard data. Mr. James has long had a profound impact on the game, influencing many GMs, including Oakland's Billy Beane.
I stumbled across some of James' ideas from his Baseball Abstract of twenty years ago. I thought I'd post them here so you can judge for yourself. Ask whether your favorite team seems to follow any of the strategies suggested by these ideas. Also, if you're a fantasy baseball owner, how can this information strengthen your team?

"What I wanted to write about... is a very basic question. Of all the studies I have done over the last 12 years, what have I learned? What is the relevance of sabermetric knowledge to the decision making process of a team? If I were employed by a major-league team, what are the basic things that I know from the research I have done which would be of use to me in helping that team?"

Minor league batting statistics will predict major league batting performance with essentially the same reliability as previous major league statistics.
(If this is true, and I believe it is --- then it pays to value minor league hitters more than minor league pitchers, since the results for hitters can be predicted with more success.)

Talent in baseball is not normally distributed. It is a pyramid. For every player who is 10 percent above the average player, there are probably twenty players who are 10 pecent below average.
(I also like to extend the letter designations of the minor leagues into the majors. For instance, I divide the majors into three different levels, based on talent and potential: 4A being the lowest, 5A the average talent level, and 6A being the all-star level.)

What a player hits in one ballpark may be radically different from what he would hit in another.
(I've often thought about this. Some ballparks not only have different dimensions, but different settings and backgrounds, too. These can have an impact on player performance. Ever see visiting players in Fenway Park trying to pull the ball, so they can hit the Green Monster?)

Ballplayers, as a group, reach their peak value much earlier and decline much more rapidly than people believe.

Players taken in the June draft coming out of college (or with at least two years of college) perform dramatically better than players drafted out of high school.
(This was a big part of the philosophy of the Oakland A's, which was documented in the best-selling book Moneyball.)

The chance of getting a good player with a high draft pick is substantial enough that it is clearly a disastrous strategy to give up a first round draft choice to sign a mediocre free agent. (see notes)
(If you look back at the Top Ten draft picks for the last 10 years or so, you will see a high percentage of players that went on to have good careers. I believe that this occurs in baseball more frequently than football or basketball, for instance.)

A power pitcher has a dramatically higher expectation for future wins than does a finesse picther of the same age and ability.
(I might take issue with this and say that other factors, such as control and movement also have a great effect on a pitcher's long-term success.)

Single season won-lost records have almost no value as an indicator of a pitcher's contribution to a team.

The largest variable determining how many runs a team will score is how many times they get their leadoff man on base.
(Note - James is referring to the leadoff man for each inning.)

A great deal of what is perceived as being pitching is in fact defense.
(Another Moneyball principle. It's a very interesting topic, and I believe, a primary reason why the Oakland A's have been able to put winning teams on the field almost every season.)

True shortage of talent almost never occurs at the left end of the defensive spectrum. (see notes)
(This seems failry obvious to me...most fielders can play a good first base if given the chance.)

Rightward shifts along the defensive spectrum almost never work. (see notes)

Our idea of what makes a team good on artificial turf is not supported by any research.
(I wonder if James has done more research on this topic.)

When a team improves sharply one season they will almost always decline in the next.
(The Detroit Tigers come to mind this year)

The platoon differential is real and virtually universal.

Notes:
Major league teams still must surrender choices in the amateur draft in exchange for signing free agents.

The defensive spectrum looks like this:
[ - - 1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF - 2B - SS - C - - ]
with the basic premise being that positions at the right end of
the spectrum are more difficult than the positions at the left
end of the spectrum. Players can generally move from right
to left along the specturm successfully during their careers.

Mid-Season Trade Targets

2007-06-21T08:59:00.000-07:00

It's about time to evaluate our fantasy rosters, and see what kind of talent might be cheaply available out on the trade market.

Ervin Santana, P, Angels
After a bad start to the season, Santana has been pretty consistent in the last month or so. His ERA has dropped almost a full point since May 24th to 5.06, which still isn't great, but it means he is pitching better. His strikeout rate is a respectable 6.92 per 9 innings, and his walk rate won't get your WHIP in trouble. Santana's undoing this year has been the long ball. He's given up 17 dingers in 90 innings. That won't win him many games.
Because his stats still aren't great, he can be had for cheap. He has gone at least 6 innings in 9 of his last 10 starts, and has given up 3 runs or less in 7 of 10 starts. The Angels have also won 5 of his last 7 outings. Expect an ERA around 4.00 the rest of the way.

- Edit: Santana had another rocky start last night. After crusing through the first three innings, he gave up six runs in the next 2-plus. He can be dominant at times, but also falls into short periods of ineptitude (especially at the start of games), which have a bad impact on his stats.

Andruw Jones, CF, Braves
You may never have a better chance to pick up a perennial All-Star for less than market value. Jones has had a horrible season thus far. He has reverted to his past habit of swinging at pitches well outside the zone, making him an easy strikeout target for even mediocre pitchers. Jones has K'ed in about 28% of his at bats this year, while walking about half as often. His overall production is not great, but with 11 homers and 42 RBI, he's still worth having on your fantasy roster. Remember this guy is only 30 years old, and hit 51 and 41 homers the last two years. See if you can target an owner whose team is performing poorly in the AVG category, who might want to get rid of Andruw for a couple of lesser players. Beware the possibility of a trade by the Braves, though.

Coco Crisp, CF, Red Sox
An altered batting stance has evidently been the reason for Coco's late resurgence. Crisp has seen his batting average climb 26 points in the last 11 days, while his OPS has jumped 81 points in the same span. If Crisp is healthy, he is capable of putting up batting numbers similar to his 2005 season with the Tribe (16 HR, .300 AVG, .810 OPS). Don't forget, he always achieves double-digit steals, too. It may be too late to snag him from an owner for next-to-nothing, but he can probably still be acquired for a player like Luis Castillo, who won't give you nearly as much production other than batting average and runs.

Tips For Actually Winning Your Roto League

2007-06-15T09:39:00.000-07:00

As an active participant in roto-style baseball for many years, I've been able to watch owners who consistently finish near the top of their leagues. I thought I'd share some strategies that might help your team get to the promised land...

1) The most important part of any season is the draft. My appraoch to the draft is to be as prepared as possible. I calculate dollar values for every player that I think is worth selecting for a buck. I use my own system for doing this, but there are roto sites that have dollar value systems that will work just fine. You probably don't want to get your values from the same magazine or website that everyone else is using. Don't be afraid to tweak the numbers to get the players you really want.

The biggest challenges in any draft are being able to read how the draft is progressing, and knowing which players you can get for cheap later on. In my roto league this year, everybody paid top dollar for their players on the first day. By the second day, we all knew that any remaining players on the board were going to go extremely cheap because most of the money was already spent. One owner held back a little bit on the first day, and his team is currently in first place because he was able to outbid everyone else on any player he wanted.

At the draft, it helps to have a chart of position eligibilty for all players, so you can easily see when a certain position is going to become scarce. Having been in a similar AL-league for the past few years, I knew that in our league, closers would be extremely valuable, and starting pitching would be the easiest position to fill. So, I spent most of my money on offense and saves. I am doing well in those categories, and have bolstered my starting rotation through Free Agency and trades (I currently have the 2nd and 3rd place teams out of 12).

2) Evaluating talent is key to making a run at the top. I have learned that it's best to avoid players who don't have a lot of potential, even if they are playing everyday. Luis Rodriguez, Shane Costa and Matt Kata come to mind as guys I never want to have on my roster. I tend to gamble on guys who might not be starting, but have a good chance to put up excellent numbers when they play. some of my potential-based Free Agent pickups this year have been Luis Terrero, Dustin Moseley, Casey Janssen, Jeremy Guthrie, Shaun Marcum and Brendan Harris. Not all of them are big contributors yet, but they all show signs of brilliance. Choose strikeouts over WHIP, and Home Runs/Speed over Batting Average.

Also, identify the teams that play in pitchers and hitters parks. If an Oakland pitcher such as Lenny Dinardo is available as a Free Agent, see if he's worth a slot on your roster. Avoid Texas Ranger starting pitchers, as they unsuccessfully try to get outs in a hitter's park.

Pay attention to what roto websites say about players that you know little about. I picked up Janssen and Guthrie because RotoWorld said that they were good. I didn't know much about either, but the results have been excellent.

3) Keep your roster current. Some owners just don't monitor their rosters very closely. They keep guys active who have been on the DL for two weeks. It's hard to win if you do that. I tend to leave pitchers called up from the minors inactive for a week to see how they adjust to the majors.

4) When it comes to trading, identify who is expendable on your roster. If you can fill a need for a starting pitcher by trading Alex Rios, and you can pick up Trot Nixon as a Free Agent, you might want to explore making that deal. Avoid making offers that don't benefit both teams. The quickest way to kill future trades is to make one-sided offers in the present.

Don't try to win your league with one trade. Make several or many deals that swing the pendulum ever-so slightly in your favor.

5) Monitor which categories are close races. Make trades to gain in those categories. If the difference between 4th and 10th place in stolen bases is only five steals, pick up a speedster to make sure you finish on top of that group. Likwise if you know you're out of the competition for saves, don't make a trade for a closer and still finish last in that category.

6) Don't expect to win your league if you are the commish. Running a league takes time, and it takes time away from being able to follow your teams and the Free Agent wire closely. I'm learning about this for the first time this year.

Gaudin or Miller

2007-06-11T09:20:00.000-07:00

I got a great baseball question from Butch, which I thought I'd post for everyone to see...

Butch said...
Hey man, where you been?Not much of a basketball fan but I have a baseball question for you, so I'm hijacking this thread!First off, gutsy call with Tomo Ohka as a free agent pickup. It didn't work out but still, you went out on a limb, you had a logical argument, it was a guy who was going to be available. It didn't work out but hey. I would rather read a pick like that than read the 1,000 posts about how I should run out there and claim James Shields or Chad Gaudin or Fausto Carmona... those ships have sailed! (But you had them all before they left the dock, nice job)So anyway, I have the great fortune of having picked up Gaudin and Andrew Miller, but unfortunately, we play old-school Rotisserie League rules where you have to drop the player you claimed in order to activate him. In other words, I had Miller, I reserved Miller and claimed Gaudin. Now Miller is back; I would have to release Gaudin to activate Miller.I could then immediately put in a waiver claim for Gaudin but everyone else would get a shot at him too.Which one would you keep? It's a keeper league, auction draft... either guy would cost $6 to keep next year.

Butch said...
oops, just one other point, my plan is either to activate Miller, drop Gaudin and then claim Gaudin, or drop Miller and then claim Miller. But as I said, my chances of getting either guy back aren't great. I'm middle of the pack right now and hoping to move up, but as I said, it's a keeper league, so next year is always on my mind.

Hey Butch...
First off, I'm not done with Ohka yet. I still have him on my fantasy team, and hope he turns it around. History says he will, but he will be on a short leash. I also thought Robinson Tejada would be better than he has been. No Ranger starting pitcher has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in the last 10 years except for Kenny Rogers and Ismael Valdes. All of the Ranger starters are over 6.00 this year.

Gaudin and Shields have been outstanding. The A's pitching staff in particular has been unbelievable, and if Lenny DiNardo is still available in your league, he might be a good short-term guy. The A's typically want to play low-scoring games, which benefits the pitchers' stats. I know that fans on Athletics Nation had been clamoring for Gaudin to replace Kennedy in the rotation since last year, and it looks as though they were right.

Now to your question about Miller and Gaudin. I have been high on Miller for a couple of years, but I drafted Alex Gordon and Dustin Pedroia instead in the first round of my minor league draft (Miller went later in the first round). I think Miller is one of those rare rookies that you can stick right in as a starter in your fantasy league. He will probably be wild at times, so expect some ugly starts this year. It's a very tough choice between he and Gaudin. Can you trade one of them and keep the other?

If I had to choose one, I would choose Miller. Gaudin is great right now, but he has limited experience as a starter, and we still have the hot summer months to play. I like Miller's potential as a long-term guy more than Gaudin's. I definitely think he will get more K's, and Detroit probably gives him a very good chance to get some wins as well.

Good luck, and let us know what you decide to do...

The #1 Pick - Oden or Durant?

2007-05-30T09:23:00.000-07:00

When the Blazers won the rights to the first pick in the 2007 NBA Draft, they found themselves with a problem that any team would love to have. Who should Portland take with the top pick?

The two standout choices were both college freshmen last season: Ohio State's Greg Oden & Texas standout Kevin Durant. While the Blazers seem to be leaning towards Oden, a 7-foot man-child, a strong case can also be made for choosing Durant, who has smoothness and skills oozing out of him, a la Tracy McGrady.

In a current NBA fan poll, the question is asked: "Who will have the better NBA career?"
Oden leads Durant by a slim 53% to 47% margin.

Looking at the Blazers, there are two pressing needs. One is for a dominant big man (Oden). The other is for a sharp-shooting two-guard or small forward (Durant). Let's look at the two players and how they might fit into the Blazers' plans...

Greg Oden is the best big man to come out of college since Tim Duncan. You can't teach size, and Oden will immediately improve the Blazers defensively, and has good offensive skills as well. Despite missing some games last year with a hand injury, he averaged double-doubles shooting only with his off-hand! Oden has a fantastic work ethic, too. In the NCAA championship game against the Gators (best front line in college hoops) , he scored 25 points and ripped down 12 rebounds.
Dominant centers have been the cornerstones of championship teams in recent years. Look at the number of rings that Duncan, Shaq and Hakeem Olajuwon have won. We might not see another center of Greg Oden's caliber for another ten to twenty years.

Kevin Durant is a 6-foot-nine wunderkid who can do pretty much everything on the basketball floor. He's a dangerous outside shooter, but has the drive-and-slash game to match. There is probably no one in the NBA who could effectively match up defensively against Durant. He also may not be done growing, which is a scary thought. Durant will probably never be the defensive stopper that Oden will, but he promises to be much more dangerous on the offensive end.

In 1984, Portland drafted 7-footer Sam Bowie with the #2 pick (Olajuwon went #1). The next pick was some guy named Jordan who went to Chicago. Years after Bowie had left Portland as a bust, Michael and the Bulls were trouncing the Blazers in the NBA championship on their way to six titles. Yes, Olajuwon worked out well for Houston, but the point is that Bowie did not. You never know when big-men's knees are going to fail to stand up to the rigors of the NBA game. Oden will be a great shot-blocker, but the Blazers already have a nice, young center in LaMarcus Aldridge. Durant supplies what the Blazers have been missing ever since Clyde Drexler retired - a perimeter shooter who can always get his shot off, or drive by you in a nanosecond.

As a Blazer fan, I'm hoping they go against all reason, and choose Kevin Durant with the top pick in this year's draft.

Your thoughts?

Ventura Highway Meets the Ryan Express

2007-05-24T11:20:00.000-07:00

It's one of my favorite baseball moments ever. August 4, 1993.

After getting plunked by 46-year old Nolan Ryan, a young, brash, Robin Ventura took two steps toward first base, then inexplicably charged the mound. What resulted was one of the funniest brawl scenes of all time. Ryan simply side-stepped Ventura's moundrush, got him into an unbreakable headlock, and started pounding away mercilessly on his skull, face, and stomach. I can't tell if Nolan was smiling while he was pummeling Ventura. I imagine he had the same gleeful look on his face that Ricardo Montalban did in Naked Gun when he was about to shoot the queen.

Here's a poor version of the clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUfJ1C8pGI4

We should all feel sorry for Ventura, who went on to have a nice career. I wonder if Alex Cora will charge Roger Clemens any time soon...

Jones Achieves Remarkable Feat

2007-05-21T11:33:00.000-07:00

Above: Andruw Jones swings at a pitch in Sunday's game

When a player strikes out four times in a game, he is given the symbolic "Golden Sombrero". The sombrero moniker derives from the hockey term 'hat trick', for a three-goal performance.

Sunday, Braves' slugger Andruw Jones did what no player has done since Alex Rios July 29, 2006. Jones struck out five times in the Braves' loss, gaining the "Platinum Sombrero". This award has been achieved several times throughout the history of the game. In fact, it happened four times in '06, but once by pitcher Clay Hensley, and once by Nick Swisher in a 14-inning game. Players struck out in five at bats only 18 times before 1970, but it has occured nearly twice per season since then.

What's special about Jones' performance is that all five K's were of the swinging variety. I'll have to do a little more research to find out how many times that has happened. This was Jones' response to being moved down to the sixth spot in Atlanta's order. I'm not saying he did this on purpose, but some of those pitches he swung at were a foot outside the zone.

Meanwhile, Andruw is having a miserable season, hitting around the .215 mark. In fact, he has just six hits in his last 40 at bats, with 18 strikeouts. If you play in an NL or mixed fantasy league, and Jones becomes available at a discounted price, you might want to consider snatching him up. He has had slumps like this before (see 2004), but he always pulls out of it at some point. He hit .239 in April of 2005 before finishing with 51 homers.

Jack Cust - The Greatest Player of All Time

2007-05-14T15:42:00.000-07:00

Jack Cust's resume is not impressive, even though his stats are. Before his debut with the Oakland A's on May 6, he had 204 home runs, but just five of those were in the majors. Known for years as a 'Quadruple-A' player - someone who could crush AAA pitching, but whiffed in the show - Cust destroyed Triple-A last year with an OPS well over a thousand.

Now, getting a chance with his 5th major-league team, he has homered seven times in his first six games for the offense-challenged A's. Not only does he crush the ball, but he also knows how to draw a walk. He can't play the field worth a darn, which makes him a purrrfect fit for those Moneyballers in Oak-town. My only question is: What took the A's so long to call him up from AAA? He's been there a week and he already leads the team in dingers.

Cust is on pace for about 150 home runs this year, and in four more years he will have made Barry Bonds chase of Hammerin' Hank's immortal record a moot point. In fact, if he plays ten years, Cust will have put up almost two thousand homers. The A's will win the World Series every year as long as Mr. Cust is around to knock the cover off the ball.

Greatest ever...bar none.

MLB Player Blogs

2007-05-14T14:46:00.000-07:00

And now, for our lite reading section...here are some blogs written by a few of our favorite major leaguers...Enjoy!

Curt Schilling (Red Sox)
Pat Neshek (Twins)
CJ Wilson (Rangers)
Curtis Granderson (Tigers)
Nate Robertson (Tigers)
John Rodriguez (Cardinals)
John Lackey (Angels)
J.A.Happ (Phillies)
Akinori Otsuka (Rangers... in Japanese)

MLB 2K7 ... AAAARGHHH!

2007-05-14T09:48:00.000-07:00

Last month, I got MLB 2K7 for my xbox 360 system. I hadn't played it much right away, but lately I've played a few exhibition games and started a team in franchise mode.

I selected 'fantasy draft' and redrafted the entire league. I figured that since this would be a multi-year franchise, I would avoid most of the high-priced players, and concentrate on young, cheap talent. I only ended up spending about 35 Million out of a $134 Million budget. Here are my starters:

C Johjima (injured in 1st game, out for season)/ R. Paulino
1B Broussard
2B Kinsler
SS H. Ramirez
3B Zimmerman
LF C. Duncan
CF Baldelli
RF Delmon Young

SP B. Webb
SP Bedard
SP Sheets
SP Hendrickson
SP Gorzellany

CL J. Frasor/T. Coffey

So far, we have played 2 games in franchise mode as the Cubbies. In our first game, we broke out the whippin' sticks and hit 15 SOLO HOME RUNS to beat the Reds 15-8. I was hoping that hitting that many home runs was just a fluke. However, in my second game, I hit 10 more dingers, but lost 21-19! I have the game on PRO difficulty setting. How in the world do I get this game to behave more realisitically? Hanley Ramirez has 7 home runs in 2 games! Broussard has four, and D. Young has five!
I know that my pitching is not good, and I re-read the manual last night & figured out why I'm throwing so many meat pitches and wild pitches. So, I'm sure I can fix my pitching. But that hitting is just out of control!
If anyone has any tips for a more realistic experience in franchise mode, let me know. I'm afraid to raise the difficulty level because I'm not very good yet...

Today's Games --- May 10, 2007

2007-05-10T09:13:00.000-07:00

Saw this on the Mariners' blog, Lookout Landing and had to crack up!

For only $8,325,000
You too can have the following results:

IP H R ER HR BB SO
2.0 7 7 7 1 2 1 (BOS) ERA: 31.50
6.0 10 7 7 1 1 3 (MIN) ERA: 15.75
3.0 7 3 3 0 0 3 (LAA) ERA: 13.91
0.1 7 6 6 0 1 0 (KC) ERA: 18.27
5.2 9 6 6 0 3 3 (NYY) ERA: 15.35
5.0 10 6 6 2 2 0 (DET) ERA: 14.32
Jeff Weaver. So easy, a caveman can hit it.

That has to be the worst $8 million spent in the history of baseball.

Umpire Stats Revealed

2007-05-09T08:42:00.000-07:00

When choosing a lineup in fantasy baseball, every little edge can mean the difference between winning and losing. If you're deciding between Odalis Perez and Joe Blanton for your fifth starter, you'll want to know who is calling those balls and strikes behind the plate. If the umpire for today's game has a small strike zone, you might want to sit that mediocre starting pitcher.

Keep in mind that an umpire's statistics can be swayed by ballpark, league, quality of offense and pitching, and other factors. Here are some meaningful 2006 stats for the umps who called a minimum of 20 games (courtesy of Baseball Prospectus):

Highest K/BB Ratios:
Doug Eddings 3.1
Charlie Reliford 2.69
John Hirshbeck 2.67
Brian Gorman 2.49
Bill Miller 2.42

Lowest K/BB Ratios:
Andy Fletcher 1.52
Ed Montague 1.54
Randy Marsh 1.6
Sam Holbrook 1.62
Greg Gibson 1.64

Lowest ERA:
Doug Eddings 3.64
John Hirschbeck 3.82
Tom Hallion 3.93
Bruce Froemming 3.98
Mark Carlson 4.01

Highest ERA:
Jerry Crawford 5.90
Mike Everitt 5.25
Marty Foster 5.20
Ed Montague 5.18
Larry Poncino 5.07

Lowest Batting Avg:
Doug Eddings .249
Paul Nauert .252
Jim Reynolds .253
Brian Gorman .258
Laz Diaz .258

Highest Batting Avg:
Jerry Crawford .296
Brian O'Nora .292
Rob Drake .288
Bruce Dreckman .288
Marty Foster .288

Thus, you can see that Doug Eddings and John Hirschbeck are consistently favorable to pitchers, while Jerry Crawford and Marty Foster tend to promote more offense.
You can find a wide range of umpire stats at Baseball Prospectus, including stats for 2007 and past years.

What's In a Name?

2007-05-08T15:38:00.000-07:00

The Bambino and Iron Horse

Nicknames have been part of baseball lore for over a century. Guys like "Shoeless Joe", "Dizzy" and "the Say-Hey Kid" are fondly remembered as much by their alternate names as their real ones. Applying a colorful nickname to a player has seemingly become a lost art (Chris Berman's contributions aside).

However, today's players are not short on their own nicknames. Here are a few of the better known nicknames for current players:

The Rocket - Roger Clemens
Gonzo - Luis Gonzalez
Flash - Tom Gordon
Junior - Ken Griffey Jr.
El Duque - Orlando Hernandez
Izzy - Jason Isringhausen
Big Unit - Randy Johnson
Chipper - Larry "Chipper" Jones
Moose - Mike Mussina
A-Rod - Alex Rodriguez
K-Rod - Francisco Rodriguez
Big Papi - David Ortiz
Pudge - Ivan Rodriguez
The Big Hurt - Frank Thomas
Boomer - David Wells

All of those players have put up big numbers in their careers, and are well known.

Here are some nicknames for players that you might not have heard before (some are quite humorous):

The Mayor - Sean Casey
Shaq - Shawn Chacon
X-factor - David Eckstein
El Duquecito - Adrian Hernandez
Hurricane - Bobby Hill
The Freak - Todd Hollandsworth
Shrek - Kevin Mench
Kung Fu - Magglio Ordonez
Fish - Tim Salmon
The Big Toe - John Smoltz
Ichiballs - Ichiro Suzuki
Reverend - Mike Sweeney

Here are some of the most well-known baseball nicknames of all time:

Charlie Hustle - Pete Rose
Stan the Man - Stan Musial
The Splendid Splinter - Ted Williams
Sultan of Swat - Babe Ruth
Wizard of Oz - Ozzie Smith
Hammerin' Hank - Henry Aaron (and HOF'er Hank Greenberg)
Mr. October - Reggie Jackson
Georgia Peach - Ty Cobb
The Yankee Clipper - Joe DiMaggio (also Joltin' Joe)
Iron Horse - Lou Gehrig
Yogi - Lawrence Berra

and some of the most colorful nicknames:

Nails - Lenny Dykstra
The Mad Hungarian - Al Hrabosky
Psycho - Steve Lyons
Crime Dog - Fred McGriff
The Bird - Mark Fidrych
Space Man - Bill Lee
Wild Thing - Mitch Williams
Big Mac - Mark McGwire
Pops - Willie Stargell
The Cobra - Dave Parker
Chairman of the Board - 'Whitey' Ford

As an added bonus, here's a link to a long list of "Bermanisms", nicknames created by ESPN broadcaster Chris Berman.

What's your favorite baseball nickname of all time? Feel free to add any that I've left out.

Mets Winning Now & Later

2007-05-04T11:02:00.000-07:00

Traditionally, the New York Mets have been a franchise that tried to build a winner primarily through free agency. They would sign big-name players and often receive mediocre production in return.

The Mets' squad that easily won the NL East in 2006 was built not only through free agency and trades, but also with superior talent developed from within. Third-baseman David Wright and shortstop Jose Reyes were two of the game's better players in 2006, and should be all-stars for years to come. But, the Mets are not content with those two studs. A host of top-notch young players are already in the big leagues or very close, including pitchers Phil Humber and Mike Pelfrey. The Mets have prospered with their first-round draft picks in recent years, where they have signed Humber, Pelfrey, outfielder Lastings Milledge and pitcher Aaron Heilman. They also signed super southpaw Scott Kazmir in the draft's first round, only to deal him to Tampa Bay for Victor Zambrano - one of the worst trades in recent memory.

Further down on the farm, the Mets have a few very young but intriguing prospects which could ensure the team's competitiveness for many years. In 2005, GM Omar Minaya spent over $2 million on a couple of Latin-American players that were both 16 years old. Let's take a look at those two players:

Fernando Martinez, OF, Age 18
Martinez is a left-handed power hitter who demonstrates all five tools needed for future stardom. Hailing from the Dominican Republic, the youngster impressed onlookers in the lower levels of the Mets' farm system.
Spending most of 2006 between Low-A Hagerstown and High-A St. Lucie, Martinez hit .333 at Hagerstown. There, he showed a wide range of skills, collecting 21 extra base-hits in 192 at bats, including 5 home runs and 7 steals.
At St. Lucie, he struggled somewhat, hitting only .193 in 119 at bats with 24 strikeouts. He also hit 5 homers in the High-A league. When you consider that his peers were 3-4 years older, it's no wonder that prospect watchers are projecting him as one of the best-looking players in years to come.
After a slow start in Double-A Binghamton this year, the outfielder is hitting .293 in 20 games with a homer and three steals. That's a very impressive performance for an 18 year old.

Deolis Guerra, RHP, Age 18
Just having celebrated his 18th birthday, the 6' 5" Venezuelan pitcher has turned heads already in St. Lucie with a 3.60 ERA and a WHIP under one in 2007. Guerra hit 96 MPH on the radar gun this spring, up from the low-90s previously. That has caused some to put him in the Top 10 pitching prospects in all of baseball. He is still growing into his large frame, and needs to continue to develop coordination and consistency with his pitches.
In 2006, Guerra dominated in Low-A Hagerstown, posting a 2.20 ERA, and only surrendering 59 hits in 81 innings.

Pujols gets 3/4 of a Walk

2007-05-03T10:49:00.000-07:00

MILWAUKEE (AP) -- Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols barely even noticed the premature walk he received during St. Louis' 7-1 loss against the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday night.

But Brewers starter and former teammate Jeff Suppan did.

Suppan, part of the Cardinals' championship team last season, was rolling along to his 16th complete game of his career when Pujols came to plate with one out in the sixth inning.

Suppan got ahead of Pujols 0-2 before Pujols fouled off a pitch, took two balls and fouled off another. After the next pitch he was awarded first base by home plate umpire Dan Iassogna.

"I was mad at myself for going to 3-2 after being up 0-2, and then I saw him walking to first," said Suppan, who figured that maybe it was his mistake and he had walked him. "I looked at the umpire expecting him to call him back, but no one said anything. I just moved on and it didn't end up hurting me."

Pujols was erased a few moments later on a double play by Scott Rolen to end the inning.

Official scorer Tim O'Driscoll confirmed Pujols, who extended his hitting streak to nine with a single in the first, walked on the third ball of the at-bat.

This explains why the Brewers haven't won anything for 20 years. Didn't anybody else notice that the count was 3 balls, and if so, didn't anybody care enough to say something about it?

Playing the Ballpark Percentages

2007-05-01T15:17:00.000-07:00

We all know that certain ballparks have displayed tendencies toward pitching or hitting. In some cases, this is a reflection of the home team's ability or inability to produce or prevent runs. Let's take a look at certain stadiums and their effect on home runs, and see if we can exploit any trends in 2007:

PNC Park - Home of the Pittsburgh Pirates

Construction on the Pirates new home was finished in 2001. Despite the short porches down the lines (325' to left, 320' to right), and the relatively short distance to the center field wall (399'), there are not many home runs hit at PNC compared to other parks. In fact, in 2006, home runs at PNC occurred only about 82% as often as they did at other parks. Blame the weak-hitting Pirates if you like, but consider that there were 26% more doubles hit there in '06 than at other ballyards. That means that if a player (say Adam Laroche) gets traded to Pittsburgh, you can expect a slight Home Run production dropoff.

By the way, the Pirates have managed only six dingers at home so far this year (last in MLB), compared to 12 on the road.

Chase Field - Home of the Arizona Diamondbacks
(also known as Bank One Ballpark, or the BOB)

The BOB was the most prolific park for hitters in 2006, near the top in several offensive categories. When you realize that the other teams in the NL West are not exactly offensive juggernauts, this ballpark is having a tremendous effect on runs scored throughout the year. Home Runs and triples occur quite a bit more here than they do in other stadiums, producing more runs. The BOB also sees more hits, walks and doubles than other parks do. Thus, if your fantasy pitcher is getting a couple of starts in Arizona soon, you might want to give him a seat on the bench.

Fenway Park - Home of the Boston Red Sox

Home of the Green Monster, Fenway has been the host to some of the game's most memorable home runs. Although the Red Sox pitching underperformed in 2006, there were not a huge amount of homers hit at Fenway. The monster takes away a good number of shots to left field, and the cavernous center field turns many homers into doubles or outs. While Fenway ranked 13th in runs in '06, it ranked 29th in Home Runs, and 1st by a wide margin in doubles. Guys like Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis will flourish in Boston, but don't expect them to hit too many out of the park.

Petco Park - Home of the San Diego Padres

Always known as a pitcher's park, Petco has kept Home Run hitters from donning the Padre uniform simply because they knew their home run totals would suffer. Or would they?

In 2006, San Diego's home field ranked a very average 16th in home runs, above average in triples, and about average in walks. The Padre ballpark yielded fewer doubles than any other park, and likewise, fewer runs than any other park.

The NL West is the most interesting division when it comes to ballpark effect. Besides Arizona and San Diego, which were mentioned above, the division also features AT & T park in San Francisco, which was dead last in home runs, but 16th in total runs. Also in the division is the notorious Coors Field, which has become strangely normal the last few years, although it was 2nd in runs and 10th in home runs in 2006. The LA Dodgers have recently been known for their good pitching, but Dodger Stadium was 10th in runs and 7th in home runs last year.

Josh Hancock, 1978 - 2007

2007-04-30T09:15:00.000-07:00

Cardinals relief pitcher Josh Hancock died early Sunday morning in a car accident. He was 29 years old. I don't want to say too much to add to an already sad situation. However, when something like this happens, we realize how many lives each of us touches everyday. We never know when our time will come, so be sure to make the most of it!

Alyssa Milano Knows More Than You

2007-04-27T16:16:00.000-07:00

In the category of "What is this World Coming to?", universal hottie Alyssa Milano now has her own baseball blog.

The former girlfriend of Carl Pavano, Barry Zito, Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, Tom Glavine, (insert random major-leaguer here) says she is a longtime Dodger fan, and gives her thoughts on everything from fantasy baseball to clothes to nachos.

Early-Season Trends To Watch

2007-04-27T14:18:00.000-07:00

The 2007 season is only 3 weeks old, but there are some interesting players and teams to watch as we head into May...

Cincinnati Reds Pitching
So far in '07, the Reds staff has the best K/BB ratio in the majors (3.04). They have given up a lot of hits, but the team WHIP of 1.27 is still very respectable. In 2006, the K/BB ratio was only 2.27, and the WHIP was 1.41, giving the staff a 4.51 ERA. If the Cincy staff continues to pitch this well, expect lower-scoring games, which could put a damper on the offensive stats. (The Reds are only hitting .234 as a team so far this year.)

Oakland A's Offensive Woes
Yesterday, Oakland started the following lineup:

Stewart (.229 BA)
Ellis (.230)
Chavez (.271)
Piazza (.250)
Crosby (.227)
D. Johnson (.000 - just called up)
Buck (.234)
Kendall (.187)
Putnam (.125)

The A's brought Kielty (.143) and Scutaro (.103) off the bench. Not surprisingly, they did not score a run against Jarrod Washburn and managed only three hits. The team batting average is .229 and the slugging percentage is .339 (both are last in the majors). Last year, the A's slugged .412, which was still near the bottom of the league, but was enough to win the AL West. This year, Oakland will have to bring those numbers up quite a bit if they are to contend.

Colorado Rockies Power Numbers
So, the Rockies have a pretty young team, but 8 Home Runs in 22 games is not encouraging. The main supply of Home Runs for this team will come from the Three-H Club: Helton, Holliday and Hawpe. If those guys get injured or slump for any extended period of time, the team power numbers will certainly stay near the bottom of the league.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays Thunder & Lightning
In case you haven't noticed, no major league team has the power and speed attack of the D-Rays. Tied for second in the majors in Home Runs and Stolen Bases, Tampa is unveiling a youth movement that is making Yankees fans take notice. The staff ERA is 6.08, so it may be a couple of years before this team is competitive.

Tradewinds

2007-04-26T14:46:00.000-07:00

If you are the owner of a fantasy baseball team in an AL-only or NL-only league, chances are you've been hit hard when one of your players gets traded to the other league. In most cases, you'll receive no compensation in return, and you end up filling Bobby Abreu's spot with Willie Bloomquist.

It pays well to know what deals are coming down the road. You can get full value for a player if you trade them to another team in April or May, but you won't get much in return for a player who everybody knows is heading to the other league. That's why it's important to scan the field, and make your move sooner rather than later.

Here are some interesting trade possibilities which could come to light in the next couple of months:

Miguel Cabrera, Marlins
The Florida third-sacker set a new arbitration record in the off-season, causing his salary to jump from $472,000 to $7 million. If the Marlins don't believe that they will contend for another title in the next couple of years, they might deal Cabrera (signed through 2009) for prospects. It will probably take three really good prospects to pry Cabrera away from the fish, so teams like the Yankees, Cardinals and Orioles, who don't have the minor league talent, are probably out of the running. The Angels, Indians and Rockies are teams who have a good amount of talent on the farm, and might be willing to fork out some major bucks for one of the game's most talented players. The Angels especially have a glut of young, middle infield talent with the likes of Howie Kendrick, Maicer Izturis, Brandon Wood, Erick Aybar and Sean Rodriguez. They probably wouldn't move Kendrick or Wood, but the other guys should be expendable.

Rich Harden, Athletics
The A's have one of the sorriest offenses in recent memory. If they find the Angels running away with the division in June, they might lean toward trading the talented, but oft-injured Harden. It was rumored that the A's would have traded him to the Mets in the offseason for Lastings Milledge, Phil Humber, and Aaron Heilman, but that seems like an awful lot for the Mets to give up. First, Harden will need to prove he can stay healthy, and pitch at a high level for at least a short period of time. Maybe the Cubs will want him as an appropriate replacement for Mark Prior.

Adam Dunn, Reds
At $13 million for 2008, Cincinnati might cut ties with their slugger if they fall behind in the NL Central race. There are a lot of teams who could use Dunn, but only a few who would be willing to pay his salary beyond 2007. Look to the top-tier teams in each division for a possible destination.

Bobby Abreu, Yankees
If the Bombers' pitching doesn't come around soon, they will be making decisions that don't involve winning in '07. Abreu is set to make $16 million in 2008 if the Yanks pick up his option.

Torii Hunter, Twins
Having stated that he is almost positive he will not be back with the Twins next year, Hunter is already scoping out new places to call home. Again, it will probably be the big market teams that will be able to pry Hunter away in a trade. Atlanta may lose Andruw Jones after this year, and might be willing to lock up Hunter with a three or four year deal at a lesser price.

Article Accepted!

2007-04-25T14:42:00.000-07:00

Write On Sports has picked up my article on Division Inequality in Baseball. I hope to have more sports-related writings picked up in the near future.

A Closer Look - Tigers vs. Angels

2007-04-25T08:47:00.000-07:00

One thing that really gets my goat is when managers misuse their bullpens, especially their closers. Yesterday, as I was following the Angels-Tigers game on the web, I was reminded of this, and how I would manage a closer.

With the Tigers storming back from a 7-0 deficit, the Angels were in a tough spot. The score was 7-5 (Angels leading) in the 8th inning. Scot Shields had pitched 1.1 innings, and recorded 2 outs in the eighth after the first two batters reached base. Halos skipper Mike Scioscia went to his dominating closer, Frankie Rodriguez. K-Rod walked the first two hitters he faced, forcing in a run. He retired Curtis Granderson on a groundout to escape any further damage, but the Tigers had crept to within a run entering the ninth.

The Angels went out 1-2-3 in the bottom of the eighth, and still led 7-6 entering the top of the ninth inning. Of course, K-Rod came back out for the ninth, as was Scioscia's plan. Rodriguez struck out Marcus Thames, then the slumping Gary Sheffield doubled to deep center, and stole third base to boot. Next, Magglio Ordonez hit a monster shot to left that gave the Tigers the lead, 8-7. K-Rod got the next two outs, but the damage had been done. The Angels' closer used FORTY pitches to get 4 outs.

Of course, the Angels came back to win 9-8 in 10 innings. My point is that Scioscia should have gone to someone other than K-Rod in the eighth. In fact, I never like it when managers do funky things with their closers. When a game enters the later innings, the pressure starts mounting, and effective performance becomes more mental than physical. When you start taking guys out of their routines, you are messing with their ability to focus entirely on the task at hand. For a closer, he should only be thinking about getting 3 outs. Anything other than that breaks the routine.

I realize that K-Rod was brought in to get out of a nasty situation. I also realize that some will say that the biggest out in this game was the one in the eighth inning, as opposed to what may or may not have taken place in the ninth. I disagree. By using their closer in the eighth, The Angels gambled that K-Rod would get a quick out, and be able to effectively pitch the ninth. He didn't (in either case), messed up the save, and is probably out for today's game because of yesterday's high pitch count.

What would I have done? LA brought in Dustin Moseley to finish the 10th inning. I would have used him in the 8th, and saved K-Rod for the ninth. Scioscia had used Bootcheck and Carrasco for three innings each the day before, so those two were not available. By using Moseley, he would have kept K-Rod on his normal routine of closing out the ninth (assuming Moseley got out of the eighth). Today, the Angels' bullpen will be out of whack for a third straight day if Rodriguez is not available. And that's what gets my goat.

Roto Blues

2007-04-24T08:30:00.000-07:00

Here's a very pathetic attempt to deal with my fantasy teams' early season struggles...

Last night I couldn't sleep a wink
I tossed and turned and started to think
About my Roto team's utter disgrace
It's only April, but we're in last place

I drafted for offense, but we can't hit
Teixiera and Sheffield are swingin' like #@!*
My pitching's worse, I can't get a win
I'd drop all those losers but my bench is too thin

I've got the Roto...Roto Blues

Mister Rivera has me thinking hard
He went for the save, Scutaro left the yard
I need a new closer, but the good ones are gone
Nathan and Ray and Papelbon

I couldn't sleep, so I turned on the TV
Someone named Joel was babbling at me
About the good life and prosperity
Forget all that crap, I need me a ribbee

I've got the Roto...oooh ooh ooh

Today's a new day, or so it seems
I've got great hopes for all of my teams
But Kendrick's injured and so is Glaus
Get me away from the TV and out of the house

Borowski, who taught you to pitch
You just need one out, you sunnuva #@!*'
I need a vacation from this daily grind
My squad is a hundred and five points behind

Yeah, them's the Roto...Roto Bluuuuuuuuues!

The Best Minor Leaguers You've Never Heard of (Pt. 2)

2007-04-23T10:28:00.000-07:00

Here is part two of The Best Minor Leaguers You've Never Heard Of:

Carlos Carrasco PHI P
RotoJournal Score: 94.4
Age 19

2006 Low-A 12-6, 2.26 ERA, 159 IP, 159/65 K/BB

Signed out of the Dominican Republic two years ago, Carrasco is one of a handful of promising Phillies prospects. After a disappointing 2005, the long righty really stepped up last year, averaging a strikeout per inning.

Lorenzo Cain MIL OF
RotoJournal Score: 82.1
Age 20

2006 Low-A .307 BA, 527 AB, 6 HR, 60 RBI, 34 SB, .809 OPS

Cain can really motor, as evidenced by his stolen base numbers and his 6.45 time in the 60-yard dash. He also has decent power for a speedster, sporting a good OPS last year. Monitor his progress with the bat as he moves up in 2007.

Kala Kaaihue ATL 1B
RotoJournal Score: 66.5
Age 21

2006 Hi-A .223 BA, 188 AB, 13 HR, 31 RBI, .816 OPS
2006 Low-A .329 BA, 228 AB, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 1.072 OPS

Previously in the Red Sox system, the 6'2" 230 lb Hawaiian has drawn comparisons to former Braves first-sacker Andres Galarraga. He displayed great power in Single-A last year, and had a good K/BB ratio for most of the year.

Erik Lis MIN 1B
RotoJournal Score: 66.0
Age 22

2006 Low-A .326 BA, 411 AB, 16 HR, 70 RBI, .950 OPS

Lis crushed evrything he saw in 2006. A lefty, he may be somewhat blocked by the presence of Twins slugger Brock Peterson, who could be moved over to 3B.

Matt Gamel MIL 3B
RotoJournal Score: 60.4
Age 21

2006 Low-A .288 BA, 493 AB, 17 HR, 88 RBI, .827 OPS

Selected in Round Four of the 2005 draft, Gamel really upped his power numbers in '06. Gamel has a short, quick lefthanded swing and is considered a solid defender at third base with good enough hands and arm strength for the position.

Early Season Trade Targets - Hitters

2007-04-21T09:51:00.000-07:00

Part of successfully managing your fantasy baseball squad is knowing when a slumping superstar is about to break out, and being able to acquire such talent.

Here is a short list of April disappointments that you may want to consider trading for (season stats are through April 20, 2007):

A. Laroche PIT 1B .100 AVG
The Pirates acquired Laroche in the offseason from the Braves. He put up monster numbers in the second half last year, after he started taking medication for a medical condition that ended up helping his eyesight. You might be able to snatch him up for very little in return.

G. Sheffield DET 1B/OF .125
Sheff may finally be getting old, which is why you have a chance to add him to your squad for a young prospect or two. He has been one of the most consistent power hitters in the last decade. Just realize that the Yanks may have let him go for a reason.

S. Casey DET 1B .170
Another Tiger who has started out cold, Casey is a reliable hitter for average who should warm up soon.

A. Pujols STL 1B .197
Ok, you probably won't be able to get the perennial MVP-candidate for cheap, but if you are going to trade for him, now is the right time.

B. Roberts BAL 2B .212
After signing a big contract before the 2007 season, Roberts has failed to impress so far. There's no way the O's will give up easily on him, so he should be good for 30+ steals regardless of what he hits.

M. Young TEX SS .185
In your league, maybe Young's owner is a little worried that the hitting machine is starting to age a little bit. All the more reason for you to grab him. Young should hit over .300 this year, possibly even by the end of May.

W. Betemit LAD 3B/SS .132
I watched this guy on TV a lot when he was with the Braves, and he is a superior hitter for an infielder. He has developing power, and a good eye at the plate. Despite his low batting average so far, his walk-to-strikeout ratio is a very respectable 9/11. Betemit can probably be acquired for very cheap right now.

A. Gordon KC 3B .137
Everyone's prospect of the year, the next George Brett has struggled mightily at the plate and in the field. If you are EVER going to trade for him, now is the time.He may end up getting sent down to AAA if he doesn't start hitting soon, but he won't stay there for long.

E. Encarnacion CIN 3B .154
A very solid, unsung, young player...Double-E should put up his usual numbers by season's end.

A. Jones ATL OF .179
The Braves' center fielder has had terrible starts before. In fact, he has had terrible seasons before. You only want to pay top dollar for Jones if he's going to hit for average as well as power. That means wait until he starts to show signs of coming out of his funk before you make the big offer for him.

M. Ramirez BOS OF .189
The annual slow start to Manny's season will prompt 'Sox trade rumors, but come August, Manny will still be in Beantown. He is one of the most prolific hitters of all time, and still in his prime. Man-Ram hit his first dinger a couple of nights ago, so get ready for that bat to heat up.

Playing for Next Year

2007-04-13T09:04:00.000-07:00

If you've played rotisserie-league baseball for more than a couple of years, you've probably finished out of the money at least once or twice. Unless you are a lucky owner in a league full of chumps, you've had to endure a season where you had Kerry Wood, John Smoltz, Derek Lee and Todd Helton all end up with extended stays on the DL. In such situations, there is often no way to turn your team around. You simply have to face up to a lower-division finish. Hey, it happens in the major leagues as well as fantasy baseball.

The trick is knowing when to cut bait on a losing team to maximize your chances of winning in the coming years. For inspiration, let's look at a couple of MLB teams who have either sprung up from the depths of futility, or have remained stuck in "loser" mode.

Detroit Tigers
Year............Record.............Payroll
2007............??????..............$95 million
2006............95-67...............$82 million
2005............71-91................$69 million
2004............72-90...............$46 million
2003............43-119..............$49 million
2002............55-106..............$55 million
2001.............66-96...............$49 million

When the Tigers won the ALCS in 2006, it had been nearly 20 years since the organization had been to the postseason. Detroit hit rock bottom in 2003, winning only 43 games (a .265 winning percentage), one of the worst seasons in the history of Major League Baseball. That season, the Tigers' payroll ranked 24th out of 30 Major League teams. The next season, Detroit won 72 games, an amazing increase of 29 games over the previous year. Only AFTER they experienced success with their younger, inexpensive players did they begin to substantially increase the team payroll in 2005.

When team ownership saw that they needed a few more stars to contend, they added veteran pitcher Kenny Rogers, closer Todd Jones and infielder Placido Polanco, all at multi-million dollar salaries. Of course, the 2006 season was a smashing success, but despite the high payroll, the team's foundation is still its youth. That young, inexpensive nucleus should make the Tigers competitive for years to come.

An important part of the Tigers' success has been player evaluation. In the same way, a fantasy team owner needs to assess which players will help the team in the coming years at minimal cost. Players such as Jeremy Bonderman, Mike Maroth, Brandon Inge, Craig Monroe and Jamie Walker all made huge contributions in 2006 at very affordable salaries (under $3 million apiece). Those players had all been around for a couple of seasons, and the team decided they were worth keeping. Combining these guys with the outstanding core of young players and adding in a few well-chosen veterans at the right time has been the Tigers' recipe for success.

Baltimore Orioles
Year............Record.............Payroll
2007............??????..............$93 million
2006............70-92...............$72 million
2005............74-88...............$73 million
2004............78-84...............$51 million
2003............71-91...............$73 million
2002............67-95...............$60 million
2001............63-98...............$74 million

If you want to have a fantasy team stuck in mediocrity for years, emulate the Orioles. They haven't had a winning team in years, yet team payroll is consistently in the top half of the league. They annually add players for huge sums who are at or near the end of their careers, yet don't have the strong nucleus of young players or the roster of talented veterans to support those mid-level acquisitions.

Here's a list of recent seasons, and some of the high-salaried players who didn't live up to their billing:

2003
Albert Belle........$13 million
Scott Erickson....$7 million

2004
Omar Daal..........$4.5 million
David Segui.........$7 million

2005
Sammy Sosa........$17 million
Sidney Ponson....$8.5 million

2006
Kris Benson.........$8 million
Javy Lopez..........$9 million
Bruce Chen & Rodrigo Lopez.....$4 million each

This year, it's more of the same. The names change, but the result will be similar to past years...

2007
Danys Baez..........$6 million
Kris Benson.........$7 million
Jaret Wright........$7 million

Perhaps Orioles management will get the hint after 2007. They have a developing core of young players, such as Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera and Corey Patterson, but they lack the superstar talent to justify spending over $90 million. They consistently bring in players like Kevin Millar, Jay Payton, Steve Trachsel and Aubrey Huff, all of whom will probably be out of baseball in three years.

This is an organization with no direction. They seemingly can't bring themselves to admit that there's not enough talent to win, and scrap the whole thing and start over. Don't do this with your fantasy team. If you aren't going to win this year, be the first to start dealing your overpriced players to contending teams. You will get the best deals in return. Load up that roster with promising, young players and head into next year's draft looking to pick up a couple of superstars with an eye on contending in the next year or two.

All the Wrong Moves

2007-04-11T11:04:00.000-07:00

This offseason, the Seattle Mariners made a couple of moves that defied logic. They dealt the talented, but often injured, Rafael Soriano to Atlanta for the incredibly horrific Horacio Ramirez. They also dished out the big payola ($8.3 Million smackers) for one Jeff Weaver, who despite his playoff success in 2006, had an ERA of 6+ for the Angels and 5+ for the Cards.

These are just the latest in a long history of bizarre decisions by the M's front office. They could have had one of the best teams in baseball for years. Instead, they have guaranteed themselves another lower-division finish for 2007. Let's look at some of the transactions, and maybe we will learn how not to run a franchise.

2007
Signed Jeff Weaver for $8.3 million...He is worse than some of the minor leaguers Seattle could have called up, including Ryan Feierabend...So far, has given up 7 runs in 2 innings...if he was so good, St. Louis would have resigned him.

Signed Arthur Rhodes for $1 million...His ERA in 2006 was 5.32 and he's 37 years old...the A's snatch up Embree, the Angels get Speier, and the M's fall farther behind in the arms race.

Traded Rafael Soriano for Horacio Ramirez...Soriano was 1-2 last season for the Mariners with a 2.25 ERA in 53 games with 65 strikeouts in 60 innings....Horacio had a 4.48 ERA with a whopping 37 K's (and 31 walks) in 76 innings...Soriano makes less than half of what Ramirez does in 2007...Soriano has not given up a run in 5 appearances so far this year, while Ramirez' only start was snowed out (he was losing).

Traded Chris Snelling and Emiliano Fruto for Jose Vidro...Snelling has impressive power and speed...perhaps just needs another year to develop...Fruto is only 22, and has a great fastball...Vidro is just an awful choice to be a starting DH...7 HR and 47 RBI last year in 463 AB...nice.

2006
Traded Matt Thornton for Joe Borchard...Thornton had a nifty 3.33 ERA for the White Sox in '06, while the M's were busy figuring out that Borchard was expendable...less than 2 months after the trade, Seattle put Borchard on waivers and he was claimed by the Marlins.

Traded Shin-Soo Choo and Shawn Nottingham for Ben Broussard...It remains to be seen how Choo and Nottingham turn out, but Broussard is already a bust in Seattle... He hit .238 with the Mariners in '06, and has 2 AB so far in '07...He has been bumped out of his starting DH role by the deteriorating Jose Vidro...Choo hit .295 with the Indians in '06 after the trade, and has an intriguing power/speed combo. The fact that the Tribe also got Nottingham makes this a baaaaaad deal for the M's.

Not getting anything for Gil Meche...The sometimes talented, yet inconsistent pitcher landed with the Royals this offseason for over $10 million per year. The Mariners, of course, got nothing in return. A little foresight would have led to the M's trading him last year and probably getting at least a couple of prospects, if not a starting position player.

2005
Traded Miguel Olivo for Miguel Ojeda and Nathanael Mateo...When Olivo left the Mariners, he proceeded to hit over .300 for the Padres in '05, then hit .263 with 16 dingers for the Marlins in 2006. The M's put Ojeda on waivers three months after the trade, and Mateo is now 26 years old, and hardly a prospect anymore.

Traded Randy Winn for Jesse Foppert and and Yorvit Torrealba...Winn exploded after his trade to the Giants, hitting .355 with 14 homers in the last couple of months in 2005...he is still the Giants' regular center fielder...Torrealba was in Colorado by 2006, and Foppert pitched all of 10 innings for Seattle before being let go this spring.

2004
Traded Freddy Garcia for Jeremy Reed, Mike Morse and Miguel Olivo...The M's traded a top-tier starting pitcher for a guy who was recently sent down to AAA (Reed), a guy who should be in AA (Morse), and a good catcher who was traded away for virtually nothing (see 2005).

2003
Signed Scott Spiezio...December 2003 started one of the more forgettable chapters in Mariner history...He cost the Mariners almost $6 million for two seasons...Spiezio hit .215 in '04 and .064 in limited action in 2005...Then he went to the Cardinals and hit .272 in 2006 and got a ring to boot.

The list of bad deals goes on and on. Going farther back, the Mariners traded away David Ortiz, Carlos Guillen, A-Rod, Randy Johnson, Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe (the last two in one deal for Heathcliffe Slocumb). They also traded Brian Fuentes (current Rockies' closer) back in 2001 for Jeff Cirillo, who hit .249 and .205 in two rough years with the M's....Cirillo also "earned" a total of $13 million for those two seasons.

Here is a post from another blog about Mariners GM Bill Bavasi that pretty much sums up this mess:

"It's one thing to get worse by attrition, as your best players leave due to free agency or retirement. It's another to get worse as part of your core strategy, giving away talented young players in exchange for oft-injured mediocrities, just making things that much harder for your successor in the GM chair."

Monthly Pitching Splits - AL

2007-04-10T11:53:00.000-07:00

Certain pitchers have big discrepancies in their month-to-month performances. Former pitcher Rick Reed was a notorious great early-season performer, but he would wear down as the season went on. Thus, it was a good idea to try to draft Reed for a buck or two, and then trade him before he went into the tank.

Here are some notable career ERA monthly splits for active starting pitchers with at least 3 years big-league experience (best ERA month is highlighted):

American League:

Steve Trachsel
APR 4.90 MAY 3.82 JUN 4.38 JUL 4.76 AUG 3.90 SEP 3.96

Curt Schilling
APR 3.50 MAY 3.12 JUN 3.87 JUL 3.39 AUG 3.26 SEP 3.61

Mike Mussina
APR 3.76 MAY 3.36 JUN 4.14 JUL 4.26 AUG 3.57 SEP 2.95

Carl Pavano
APR 4.41 MAY 4.23 JUN 4.52 JUL 4.54 AUG 4.36 SEP 3.68

Roy Halladay
APR 4.69 MAY 3.23 JUN 3.63 JUL 3.47 AUG 4.38 SEP 2.45

AJ Burnett
APR 3.42 MAY 3.76 JUN 3.27 JUL 4.75 AUG 3.38 SEP 4.24

Jon Garland
APR 5.33 MAY 4.21 JUN 4.41 JUL 4.30 AUG 4.05 SEP 4.88

Jose Contreras
APR 4.05 MAY 3.73 JUN 5.26 JUL 4.97 AUG 4.42 SEP 3.85

Mark Buehrle
APR 4.24 MAY 2.92 JUN 3.68 JUL 4.50 AUG 3.74 SEP 4.07

CC Sabathia
APR 4.16 MAY 3.41 JUN 4.67 JUL 5.11 AUG 3.78 SEP 3.09

Jake Westbrook
APR 4.66 MAY 5.23 JUN 3.35 JUL 4.73 AUG 4.93 SEP 3.40

Johan Santana
APR 4.28 MAY 4.33 JUN 2.76 JUL 3.72 AUG 2.23 SEP 2.43

Carlos Silva
APR 4.72 MAY 4.30 JUN 3.87 JUL 5.23 AUG 4.53 SEP 3.09

Jeremy Bonderman
APR 5.18 MAY 4.20 JUN 4.53 JUL 4.37 AUG 5.76 SEP 4.14

Mike Maroth
APR 4.15 MAY 5.47 JUN 3.59 JUL 5.76 AUG 5.15 SEP 4.79

Gil Meche
APR 4.38 MAY 5.00 JUN 2.88 JUL 5.68 AUG 5.55 SEP 4.40

Dan Haren
APR 3.87 MAY 3.92 JUN 3.70 JUL 4.45 AUG 4.24 SEP 4.07

Joe Blanton
APR 4.31 MAY 7.39 JUN 2.92 JUL 4.50 AUG 1.99 SEP 4.96

John Lackey
APR 5.11 MAY 4.15 JUN 3.46 JUL 3.15 AUG 4.86 SEP 3.33

Bartolo Colon
APR 4.27 MAY 3.69 JUN 4.69 JUL 3.78 AUG 3.79 SEP 3.80

Vicente Padilla
APR 4.03 MAY 4.50 JUN 4.06 JUL 3.72 AUG 3.39 SEP 5.01

Kelvim Escobar
APR 4.95 MAY 4.97 JUN 4.22 JUL 4.41 AUG 3.66 SEP 3.68

Kevin Millwood
APR 4.03 MAY 4.13 JUN 4.72 JUL 3.60 AUG 3.63 SEP 3.33

Miguel Batista
APR 5.33 MAY 3.87 JUN 4.79 JUL 3.74 AUG 4.44 SEP 5.22

Joe Blanton has the wildest variance, but also has just 4 years under his belt.

Cold-weather pitchers include Contreras, Pavano and Mussina.

Garland and Padilla seem to like summer.

Johan Santana, Kevin Millwood and Kelvim Escobar are late-bloomers.

Dan Haren and AJ Burnett prefer the first half of the year.

It's interesting to note that NONE of those pitchers have their best ERA in April, when the cold weather is supposed to keep the scoring down.

It's Snowing in Cleveland

2007-04-06T14:26:00.000-07:00

They finally got the game started between the Mariners and the Tribe despite the snow. Paul Byrd goes for the Tribe, and Haracio Ramirez is pitching for the M's. That is, if you can call it pitching...which he hasn't done well since a shortened 2004 campaign.

Horacio is one of the questionable Mariners moves the last couple of seasons. He hasn't struck anyone out for years. He pitched 200 innings in 2005, and struck out 80. A whopping 3.6 batters per nine innings. Why the M's would trade the talented Rafael Soriano for him is a mystery to many. Sure, Ramirez can eat up innings, but they're all bad innings.

I'll revisit this later. Meanwhile, Ramirez has given up the first of many runs in the bottom of the first...including a hit and three walks...

The 25th Man - American League

2007-04-06T12:57:00.000-07:00

If your AL-only roto league compiles equivalent stats for everyone on the roster, you know how important those $1 players can be. I've compiled a list of players that might still be available in some leagues, who could provide a little spark to your team. Here then, are those major-league bench players, middle relievers and spot starters...

American League

Justin Speier, RP, Angels
- A very good setup man for Scot Shields who sets up K-Rod. Man, what a 'pen.

Chad Durbin, SP, Tigers
- He looks like the Tigers' fifth starter until Kenny Rogers comes back in July from a blood clot. That's plenty of time to prove that he belongs in the rotation permanently.

Reggie Willits, OF, Angels
- He stole 4 bases in 28 games for the Halos last year.

Chad Gaudin, SP, A's
- While Esteban Loaiza is out, Gaudin will make a few starts. Then he will go back to the pen until needed as a starter again. You could definitely do worse for your 5th starter.

George Sherrill, RP, Mariners
- After a terrible spring, the reliable lefty reclaims his spot in the Seattle bullpen.

Chad Bradford, RP, Orioles
- He had a great year with the Mets last year. The sidearmer will give you 50+ innings of low ERA and WHIP.

Marco Scutaro, SS, A's
- Bobby Crosby's recurring injuries lead to plenty of playing time for the A's "Mr. Clutch".

Victor Zambrano, RP, Blue Jays
- A starter turned reliever, Zambrano has too much stuff to remain in the Jays' bullpen for long. Expect him to be starting before June.

Wily Mo Pena, OF, Red Sox
- He hardly plays, but when he does, he hits Home Runs.

Jamie Shields, SP, Devil Rays
- Only 25 years old, Shields had a sub-5.00 ERA and a pretty nice strikeout-to-walk ratio last year. He should get better with experience.

Fausto Carmona, SP, Indians
- Carmona has put up some pretty good minor-league numbers. He starts while Cliff Lee is rehabbing.

Robinson Tejada, SP, Rangers
- He shut down the Red Sox today. He shouldn't be available in deep mixed leagues, but if he is...grab him.

Jesse Crain, RP, Twins
- A hard throwing righty. Joe Nathan is a Free Agent after 2008, so Crain may close for the Twinkies after that.

Boof Bonser, SP, Twins
- Once a hot prospect, Bonser is just trying to settle into the Twins rotation. He's better than Carlos Silva, so his job should be safe for now.

Tony Pena, SS, Royals
- The son of the former Pirates catcher, Pena culd win the Royals shortstop job outright if Berroa doesn't work out (he won't).

Ryan Garko, 1B, Indians
- Tons of power make Garko a sleeper. He just needs more playing time.

Kelly Shoppach, C, Indians
- Of the backup catchers in the AL, Shoppach probably has the most potential.

Jeremy Accardo, RP, Blue Jays
- He had a decent WHIP last year, but his ERA was 5+. He should be better this year.

Bobby Kielty, OF, A's
- Kielty mashes lefties, and is usually the first bat off the bench when the A's need an OF.

Jason Tyner, OF, Twins
- In three AB this year, the speedy Tyner has two SB's already. Not a bad ratio.

The Best Minor Leaguers You've Never Heard of (Pt. 1)

2007-04-06T10:41:00.000-07:00

This is the start of a series I'll be doing to highlight some great minor league talent you might not have heard about.

Today's prospects:

Sean Rodriguez, SS Angels
RotoJournal Score: 92.7
Age: 21

Year Lg G AB HR RBI R SB AVG
2006 A 116 455 24 77 78 15 .301
2006 AA 17 62 5 9 15 0 .355
2006 AAA 1 2 0 0 0 0 .000

Rodriguez was off the radar in 2005, but put up big numbers at Single-A in 2006. While he made the jump to AAA in '06, don't expect him to reach the majors soon, as he's just 21, and the Angels are loaded with middle-infield type prospects. Still, 29 home runs and 15 steals means that you don't want to lose track of his progress.

Jay Bruce, OF Reds
RotoJournal Score: 91.8
Age: 19

Year Lg G AB HR RBI R SB AVG
2006 A 117 444 16 81 69 19 .291

Just 19 years old, Bruce tore up the Midwest League, displaying power and speed to make scouts drool. Jay had an OPS of .871 in '06, and was named MVP of the Midwest League All-Star Game. He should move through the Reds' system quickly if he continues to put up decent numbers at such a young age.

Emilio Bonifacio, 2B Diamondbacks
RotoJournal Score: 85.7
Age: 21

Year Lg G AB HR RBI R SB AVG
2006 A 130 546 7 50 117 61 .321

Bonifacio, a switch-hitter, had a great season in the Single-A California League, including an .824 OPS. He has blazing speed, and turned some heads in Diamondback camp this spring. Bonifacio's time from home to first is just 3.9 seconds. His power numbers bear monitoring, as he played in a hitters park in 2006.

Division Inequality in Baseball

2007-04-06T08:44:00.000-07:00

It's high time baseball did something to fix one of its biggest problems. No, I'm not talking about steroids, scuffing baseballs, or the Chicago Cubs. It's the huge competitive advantage some teams have gained merely by belonging to the right division.

Back in 1994, Major League Baseball suffered a lost season, which ended in August with no playoffs or World Series. That was also the first season that the American and National Leagues were restructured into three-division leagues instead of two. At that point there were 28 teams in the major leagues. With the addition of Tampa Bay and Arizona in 1998, that brought the number of teams to 30. Although there has been a realignment of teams since then, the basic structure of the league has not changed since 1998.

With 30 teams and six divisions, there should be an equal number of teams (five) in each league. This is true of all but two divisions: The National League's Central Division has six teams, while the American League's Western Division has four. This may not seem like a big deal until one looks at the percentage chance that each team has of making the playoffs.

Major League Baseball currently allows eight teams into the post-season each year. The six division winners get in, plus two Wild-Card teams (one from each league). That means that (all things being equal) each team should have a 26.67% (8 divided by 30) chance of making the playoffs.

However, in the American League (AL) West there are only four teams. Each team has an opportunity to get into the playoffs by winning its division or claiming the Wild-Card spot for the AL. Each AL West team thus has a 25% chance (1 in 4) of winning its division, plus a 9.1% chance (1 in 11 non-division winners) of claiming the Wild Card spot. This adds up to a 34.1% chance that each AL West team has of making the playoffs. By comparison, each team in the AL East or AL Central has only a 29.1% chance of making the playoffs (20% to win their division, plus 9.1% chance at the Wild Card). That's a full 5% competitive advantage that the AL West teams have over the other two American League divisions.

In the National League, there is a somewhat similar scenario, except the National League (NL) Central has six teams while the other two divisions have five. This means that each NL Central team only has a 24.4% chance to make the playoffs (16.7% chance to win their division, plus 7.7% chance to claim the Wild Card spot). The teams in the NL East and NL West have a 27.7% chance of making the playoffs, so the disparity in the National league is only 3.3% instead of five percent.

If one looks at all six divisions, one can see the wide gap between the teams in the NL Central and the AL West:

National League
East ----- 27.7%
Central -- 24.4%
West ----- 27.7%

American League
East ----- 29.1%
Central -- 29.1%
West ----- 34.1%

As anyone can see, the teams in the AL West have a 9.7% higher chance of making the playoffs than the teams in the NL Central. Compound this advantage with the fact that two AL West teams (the A's and Angels) have repeatedly dominated the other two division rivals (the Mariners and Rangers), and the disparity between the divisions grows even further. This large disparity sways the competitive balance to the point where Major League Baseball needs to address the issue.

The solution is relatively simple: Move one NL Central team to the AL West. Then, (all things being equal) every team has the same chance to make the playoffs each year. Keeping location and competitive balance in mind, logical choices to move to the AL West are Houston or Chicago. The Cardinals (St. Louis) are typically the best team in the NL Central, while Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Cincinnati are farther east than the Cubs or Astros.

Until the problem is fixed, I'll relish being an Oakland A's fan even more.
See you in the playoffs (again)!

Basketball Section Coming Soon!

2007-04-05T15:16:00.000-07:00

Coming Soon...

Football Section Coming Soon!

2007-04-05T11:32:00.000-07:00

Coming Soon...